Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über PolyGram) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| 1Q O/U 5.5 | 100% |
| 1Q O/U 6.5 | 100% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 100% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 100% |
| Titans 1H O/U 6.5 | 100% |
| Ravens 1H O/U 6.5 | 100% |
| O/U 25.5 | 99% |
| O/U 28.5 | 97% |
| O/U 31.5 | 96% |
| O/U 34.5 | 93% |
| O/U 37.5 | 88% |
| 1H O/U 22.5 | 87% |
| Ravens O/U 20.5 | 85% |
| O/U 40.5 | 84% |
| Spread -1.5 | 82% |
| O/U 41.5 | 81% |
| Ravens 1H O/U 13.5 | 80% |
| O/U 42.5 | 79% |
| Spread -2.5 | 79% |
| Titans O/U 10.5 | 79% |
| O/U 43.5 | 76% |
| Ravens O/U 10.5 | 76% |
| Spread -3.5 | 73% |
| O/U 44.5 | 71% |
| Spread -4.5 | 71% |
| O/U 45.5 | 68% |
| Spread -5.5 | 68% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 68% |
| Spread -6.5 | 66% |
| O/U 46.5 | 66% |
| Ravens 1H O/U 16.5 | 65% |
| O/U 47.5 | 61% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 61% |
| Ravens O/U 27.5 | 60% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 2Q | 60% |
| Spread -7.5 | 59% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 59% |
| Spread -8.5 | 57% |
| 1H O/U 28.5 | 57% |
| Spread -9.5 | 56% |
| O/U 48.5 | 56% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 56% |
| 1Q O/U 14.5 | 56% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 4Q | 56% |
| O/U 49.5 | 55% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 54% |
| O/U 56.5 | 54% |
| O/U 57.5 | 53% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 53% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 53% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 53% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 53% |
| O/U 59.5 | 52% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 52% |
| O/U 50.5 | 52% |
| O/U 60.5 | 52% |
| 3Q O/U 14.5 | 52% |
| 4Q O/U 14.5 | 52% |
| Spread -10.5 | 51% |
| O/U 27.5 | 51% |
| O/U 29.5 | 51% |
| O/U 63.5 | 51% |
| O/U 24.5 | 51% |
| O/U 26.5 | 51% |
| O/U 62.5 | 51% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 1Q | 51% |
| O/U 33.5 | 50% |
| O/U 65.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| Spread -19.5 | 50% |
| Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| O/U 32.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 25.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Titans O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Titans O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Titans O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Titans O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Titans O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Titans O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| Titans O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| Titans O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| Titans O/U 34.5 | 50% |
| Ravens O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Ravens O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Ravens O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Ravens O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Ravens O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Ravens O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| Ravens O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| Ravens O/U 34.5 | 50% |
| Titans 1H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Titans 1H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Titans 1H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Titans 1H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Titans 1H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Ravens 1H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Ravens 1H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Ravens 1H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Titans 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Titans 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Titans 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Titans 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Titans 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Titans 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Titans 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Titans 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Ravens 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Ravens 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Ravens 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Ravens 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Ravens 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Ravens 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Ravens 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Ravens 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Titans by 25+ | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Titans by 19-24 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Titans by 13-18 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Titans by 7-12 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Titans by 1-6 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Ravens by 1-6 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Ravens by 7-13 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Ravens by 14-20 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Ravens by 21+ | 50% |
| Safety? | 50% |
| Team to Record Longest FG | 50% |
| Titans Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Ravens Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Titans vs. Ravens: Total Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Titans Total Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Ravens Total Touchdowns: O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| 1H Moneyline | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| O/U 35.5 | 49% |
| O/U 36.5 | 49% |
| O/U 38.5 | 48% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 48% |
| O/U 39.5 | 47% |
| O/U 51.5 | 47% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 47% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 47% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 47% |
| 4Q O/U 6.5 | 47% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 47% |
| Ravens 1H O/U 19.5 | 47% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 46% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 45% |
| Titans O/U 20.5 | 45% |
| Ravens 1H O/U 20.5 | 45% |
| Spread -13.5 | 44% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 44% |
| O/U 52.5 | 44% |
| O/U 53.5 | 43% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 43% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 42% |
| Spread -14.5 | 40% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 40% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 40% |
| Titans 1H O/U 13.5 | 40% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 3Q | 40% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 39% |
| O/U 54.5 | 39% |
| 2Q O/U 14.5 | 39% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 36% |
| Spread -16.5 | 35% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 35% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 35% |
| O/U 55.5 | 34% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 33% |
| Spread -17.5 | 30% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 28% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 28% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 28% |
| O/U 58.5 | 27% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 26% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 25% |
| Spread -19.5 | 24% |
| Spread -20.5 | 24% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 22% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 22% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 22% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 22% |
| Titans 1H O/U 16.5 | 21% |
| O/U 61.5 | 20% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 20% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 20% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 20% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 17% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 16% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 15% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 15% |
| Titans vs. Ravens | 14% |
| Spread -1.5 | 14% |
| Spread -21.5 | 14% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 14% |
| O/U 64.5 | 14% |
| Spread -2.5 | 13% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 12% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 10% |
| Spread -3.5 | 9% |
| Spread -4.5 | 8% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 8% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 8% |
| Spread -5.5 | 7% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 7% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 7% |
| Spread -6.5 | 6% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 6% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 6% |
| Exact Margin: Tie | 6% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 5% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 5% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 5% |
| Spread -7.5 | 4% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 4% |
| Spread -9.5 | 3% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 2% |
| Spread -10.5 | 1% |
Markt-Kontext
Der Prognosemarkt für „Prognose: Titans vs. Ravens" bewertet dieses Ergebnis derzeit mit 100% Ja-Wahrscheinlichkeit. In the upcoming NFL game, scheduled for October 4 at 1:00PM ET: If Titans wins, the market will resolve to "Titans". If Ravens wins, the market will resolve to "Ravens". If the game is postponed, this…
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $1.4M.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Diese Seite ist als Vergleichs-Snapshot konzipiert: ein Live-Kurs (Polymarket), vier Referenz-Plattformen mit ihren Schlüssel-Eigenschaften, und ein durchgehender Pfad zur Ausführung — alle Trade-Buttons routen zu PolyGram, das den Polymarket-Orderbuch direkt spiegelt.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Die Auflösung läuft on-chain. Polymarkets Vertragslogik trennt YES- und NO-Anteile als Conditional Tokens; bei Auflösung werden die richtigen Anteile zu 100¢ und die anderen zu 0¢. Die Outcome-Eingabe kommt vom UMA Optimistic Oracle, das mit einem Bond-System gegen falsche Auflösung absichert.
Sobald die Auflösung durch ist, hebt der Smart Contract alle gewinnenden Anteile zu USDC und schickt die Beträge an die Wallets der Inhaber. Das geschieht binnen Minuten der finalen Bestätigung — ohne Auszahlungsgebühren über die Polygon-Netzwerkkosten hinaus.
Häufige Fragen
- Sind Prediction-Märkte in Deutschland legal?
- Prediction-Märkte befinden sich in Deutschland in einem rechtlichen Graubereich. Polymarket selbst ist in Deutschland geo-blockiert. Handeln Sie nur mit Kapital, dessen Verlust Sie verkraften können, und prüfen Sie die rechtliche Lage für Ihre Jurisdiktion.
- Wie funktioniert die Auflösung?
- Über das UMA Optimistic Oracle: ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, USDC-Auszahlung erfolgt automatisch.
- Welche Gebühren fallen bei Polymarket an?
- Direkt am Polymarket-Orderbuch keine Gebühren — die einzigen Kosten sind Polygon-Netzwerkgebühren (typischerweise unter $0,01 pro Transaktion). Off-chain Plattformen wie Kalshi oder Betfair verlangen 2-7 % Kommission.
- Brauche ich KYC für diesen Markt?
- Auf Polymarket direkt nicht. Über vermittelnde Broker wie PolyGram ist KYC erst ab $1.500 lebenslangem Trading-Volumen erforderlich — darunter handeln Sie pseudonym mit nur einer Wallet-Adresse.
- Wie verlässlich sind die angezeigten Quoten?
- Die YES/NO-Prozentsätze sind die Live-Mid-Preise des Polymarket-Orderbuchs. Auf Märkten mit hoher Liquidität bewegen sich diese Werte sekündlich; bei dünneren Märkten sehen Sie kurze Plateaus.
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