Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über PolyGram) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
96% | 4% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
96% | 4% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| O/U 26.5 | 96% |
| O/U 28.5 | 96% |
| Bills O/U 10.5 | 96% |
| O/U 30.5 | 94% |
| O/U 31.5 | 93% |
| O/U 24.5 | 93% |
| O/U 32.5 | 93% |
| 2Q O/U 5.5 | 93% |
| Bills O/U 12.5 | 92% |
| Bills O/U 13.5 | 92% |
| Bills O/U 16.5 | 92% |
| 2Q O/U 6.5 | 91% |
| 4Q O/U 5.5 | 91% |
| O/U 33.5 | 90% |
| O/U 34.5 | 90% |
| Bills O/U 19.5 | 90% |
| Bills 1H O/U 6.5 | 90% |
| 1Q O/U 5.5 | 89% |
| O/U 35.5 | 88% |
| 3Q O/U 5.5 | 88% |
| O/U 36.5 | 87% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 86% |
| 4Q O/U 6.5 | 86% |
| Patriots O/U 10.5 | 86% |
| O/U 37.5 | 85% |
| Patriots O/U 12.5 | 85% |
| 1H O/U 16.5 | 84% |
| Patriots O/U 13.5 | 83% |
| O/U 38.5 | 82% |
| Bills O/U 20.5 | 82% |
| O/U 39.5 | 80% |
| O/U 40.5 | 78% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 78% |
| 1H O/U 19.5 | 76% |
| 1Q O/U 6.5 | 76% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 76% |
| Bills 1H O/U 12.5 | 75% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 2Q | 75% |
| Bills O/U 23.5 | 74% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 6.5 | 74% |
| O/U 41.5 | 73% |
| Spread -1.5 | 72% |
| O/U 42.5 | 72% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 71% |
| Patriots O/U 16.5 | 71% |
| O/U 43.5 | 69% |
| Spread -2.5 | 69% |
| O/U 44.5 | 67% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 65% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 65% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 65% |
| O/U 45.5 | 64% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 63% |
| 1H O/U 22.5 | 63% |
| Bills O/U 26.5 | 63% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 4Q | 63% |
| Spread -3.5 | 62% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 62% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 62% |
| O/U 46.5 | 61% |
| Patriots O/U 19.5 | 61% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 60% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 60% |
| Bills 1H O/U 13.5 | 60% |
| Spread -4.5 | 59% |
| O/U 47.5 | 59% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 59% |
| Bills O/U 27.5 | 58% |
| O/U 48.5 | 56% |
| Spread -5.5 | 56% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 56% |
| Bills 1H O/U 10.5 | 56% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 55% |
| O/U 49.5 | 54% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 54% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 54% |
| Patriots O/U 20.5 | 54% |
| Spread -6.5 | 53% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 53% |
| 2H O/U 16.5 | 52% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 6.5 | 52% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 10.5 | 52% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 16.5 | 52% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 51% |
| 2Q O/U 14.5 | 51% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 12.5 | 51% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 12.5 | 51% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 13.5 | 51% |
| O/U 50.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Bills 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Bills 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Bills 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Bills 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Bills 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Bills 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Bills 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Bills 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Patriots by 25+ | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Patriots by 13-18 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Patriots by 7-12 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Bills by 7-13 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Bills by 21+ | 50% |
| Team to Record Longest FG | 50% |
| Patriots Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Bills Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Patriots vs. Bills: Total Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Patriots Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Bills Total Touchdowns: O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 49% |
| 1H O/U 25.5 | 49% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 48% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 48% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 48% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 47% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 3Q | 47% |
| O/U 51.5 | 46% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 46% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 46% |
| Spread -7.5 | 45% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 45% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 45% |
| 4Q O/U 14.5 | 45% |
| Bills 1H O/U 16.5 | 45% |
| O/U 52.5 | 43% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 43% |
| Bills O/U 30.5 | 43% |
| Exact Margin: Bills by 1-6 | 43% |
| Spread -8.5 | 42% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 42% |
| Exact Margin: Patriots by 1-6 | 42% |
| Spread -9.5 | 41% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 41% |
| O/U 53.5 | 40% |
| Patriots O/U 23.5 | 40% |
| Exact Margin: Tie | 40% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 1Q | 40% |
| O/U 54.5 | 38% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 38% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 38% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 38% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 37% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 37% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 37% |
| Spread -10.5 | 36% |
| 1H O/U 28.5 | 36% |
| Bills 1H O/U 17.5 | 36% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 35% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 35% |
| O/U 55.5 | 34% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 34% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 34% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 34% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 33% |
| O/U 56.5 | 33% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 33% |
| Spread -13.5 | 31% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 31% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 31% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 13.5 | 31% |
| 1H Moneyline | 31% |
| O/U 57.5 | 30% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 30% |
| Bills 1H O/U 19.5 | 29% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 28% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 28% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 28% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 28% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 28% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 28% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 28% |
| Patriots O/U 26.5 | 28% |
| Patriots vs. Bills | 27% |
| Spread -14.5 | 27% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 26% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 26% |
| O/U 58.5 | 26% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 25% |
| Bills 1H O/U 20.5 | 25% |
| O/U 59.5 | 24% |
| Spread -1.5 | 24% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 24% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 24% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 24% |
| Patriots O/U 27.5 | 24% |
| Spread -16.5 | 23% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 23% |
| Spread -2.5 | 22% |
| Spread -17.5 | 22% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 22% |
| 3Q O/U 14.5 | 22% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 21% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 21% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 21% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 21% |
| O/U 60.5 | 21% |
| O/U 61.5 | 20% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 20% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 20% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 16.5 | 20% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 19% |
| Spread -19.5 | 18% |
| O/U 62.5 | 18% |
| O/U 63.5 | 17% |
| Spread -3.5 | 17% |
| Spread -20.5 | 17% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 17% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 17% |
| 1Q O/U 14.5 | 17% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 16% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 16% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 16% |
| Spread -4.5 | 15% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 15% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 15% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 15% |
| Bills O/U 34.5 | 15% |
| O/U 65.5 | 14% |
| Spread -5.5 | 14% |
| Spread -21.5 | 14% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 14% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 14% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 14% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 14% |
| O/U 64.5 | 14% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 17.5 | 14% |
| Spread -6.5 | 13% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 13% |
| O/U 67.5 | 12% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 12% |
| Spread -21.5 | 11% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 11% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 11% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 11% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 19.5 | 11% |
| Spread -7.5 | 10% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 10% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 10% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 10% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 10% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 10% |
| Patriots O/U 30.5 | 10% |
| Exact Margin: Bills by 14-20 | 10% |
| O/U 69.5 | 9% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 9% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 9% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 9% |
| Spread -8.5 | 8% |
| Spread -20.5 | 8% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 8% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 8% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 20.5 | 8% |
| Spread -9.5 | 7% |
| Spread -10.5 | 7% |
| Spread -16.5 | 7% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 7% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 7% |
| Patriots O/U 34.5 | 7% |
| Safety? | 7% |
| O/U 71.5 | 6% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 6% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 6% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 6% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 6% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 6% |
| Spread -13.5 | 5% |
| Spread -19.5 | 5% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 5% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 5% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 5% |
| Spread -14.5 | 4% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 4% |
| Spread -17.5 | 3% |
| Exact Margin: Patriots by 19-24 | 1% |
Markt-Kontext
Live-Daten von Polymarket zeigen 96% Ja-Wahrscheinlichkeit für Prognose: Patriots vs. Bills. In the upcoming NFL game, scheduled for October 4 at 1:00PM ET: If Patriots wins, the market will resolve to "Patriots". If Bills wins, the market will resolve to "Bills". If the game is postponed, th…
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $1.1M.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Diese Übersicht vergleicht Prognose: Patriots vs. Bills über fünf Plattformen. Die Live-Wahrscheinlichkeit ist der Polymarket-Mid-Preis aus dem Polygon-Orderbuch; die Vergleichs-Spalten zeigen Gebührenstruktur, KYC-Schwellen, Settlement-Währung und Zahlungswege jeder Plattform. Alle CTAs leiten zu PolyGram, das den Polymarket-Orderbuch zu 0 % Gebühren spiegelt.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Polymarket-basierte Märkte werden über das UMA Optimistic Oracle auf Polygon aufgelöst. Ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, und unangefochtene Vorschläge schließen die Auflösung ab. Auszahlungen erfolgen automatisch in USDC, sobald das Ergebnis final ist — keine Buchhalter, keine Verzögerung.
Kalshi-basierte Märkte werden in USD über die CFTC-regulierte Settlement-Engine ausgezahlt. Betfair Exchange zahlt in GBP/EUR aus, abzüglich Kommission. Manifold ist Spielgeld und zahlt keine echten Beträge aus.
Häufige Fragen
- Wo kann ich diesen Markt am günstigsten handeln?
- Polymarket selbst ist global zugänglich, in DE/AT/CH allerdings geo-blockiert. Der einfachste Broker mit gleichem Orderbuch und 0 % Gebühr ist PolyGram. Kalshi nimmt bis zu 7 % pro Trade, Betfair Exchange 2-5 % Kommission auf Gewinne.
- Sind Prediction-Märkte in Deutschland legal?
- Prediction-Märkte befinden sich in Deutschland in einem rechtlichen Graubereich. Polymarket selbst ist in Deutschland geo-blockiert. Handeln Sie nur mit Kapital, dessen Verlust Sie verkraften können, und prüfen Sie die rechtliche Lage für Ihre Jurisdiktion.
- Was ist der Unterschied zwischen YES- und NO-Anteilen?
- Ein YES-Anteil zahlt $1,00 bei Eintritt des Ereignisses, sonst $0. Ein NO-Anteil zahlt $1,00, wenn das Ereignis nicht eintritt. Der Marktpreis zwischen 0¢ und 100¢ ist die implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit.
- Wie lange dauert eine USDC-Einzahlung?
- Auf Polygon werden Einzahlungen nach 12 Bestätigungen gutgeschrieben — in der Regel unter 30 Sekunden. Withdrawals folgen demselben Pfad und sind binnen Minuten auf Ihrer Wallet.
- Wie verlässlich sind die angezeigten Quoten?
- Die YES/NO-Prozentsätze sind die Live-Mid-Preise des Polymarket-Orderbuchs. Auf Märkten mit hoher Liquidität bewegen sich diese Werte sekündlich; bei dünneren Märkten sehen Sie kurze Plateaus.
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