Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über PolyGram) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| Malik Willis: Passing Yards O/U 149.5 | 100% |
| Malik Willis: Passing Yards O/U 174.5 | 100% |
| Malik Willis: Passing Yards O/U 199.5 | 100% |
| Patrick Mahomes: Passing Yards O/U 174.5 | 100% |
| Patrick Mahomes: Passing Yards O/U 199.5 | 100% |
| Patrick Mahomes: Passing Yards O/U 224.5 | 100% |
| Patrick Mahomes: Passing Touchdowns O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Patrick Mahomes: Passing Touchdowns O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Kenneth Walker: Rushing Yards O/U 49.5 | 100% |
| Kenneth Walker: Rushing Yards O/U 59.5 | 100% |
| Kenneth Walker: Rushing Yards O/U 69.5 | 100% |
| Malik Willis: Rushing Yards O/U 19.5 | 100% |
| Malik Willis: Rushing Yards O/U 29.5 | 100% |
| Malik Willis: Rushing Yards O/U 39.5 | 100% |
| Chris Bell: Receiving Yards O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Greg Dulcich: Receiving Yards O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Malik Washington: Receiving Yards O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Rashee Rice: Receiving Yards O/U 39.5 | 100% |
| Rashee Rice: Receiving Yards O/U 49.5 | 100% |
| Rashee Rice: Receiving Yards O/U 59.5 | 100% |
| Rashee Rice: Receiving Yards O/U 69.5 | 100% |
| Rashee Rice: Receiving Yards O/U 79.5 | 100% |
| Travis Kelce: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 100% |
| Travis Kelce: Receiving Yards O/U 39.5 | 100% |
| Travis Kelce: Receiving Yards O/U 49.5 | 100% |
| Tyquan Thornton: Receiving Yards O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Xavier Worthy: Receiving Yards O/U 19.5 | 100% |
| Chris Bell: Receptions O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Greg Dulcich: Receptions O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Kenneth Walker: Receptions O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Malik Washington: Receptions O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Rashee Rice: Receptions O/U 4.5 | 100% |
| Rashee Rice: Receptions O/U 5.5 | 100% |
| Rashee Rice: Receptions O/U 6.5 | 100% |
| Tyquan Thornton: Receptions O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Xavier Worthy: Receptions O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Kenneth Walker: Anytime Touchdown | 100% |
| Kenneth Walker: 2+ Touchdowns | 100% |
| Ollie Gordon II: Anytime Touchdown | 100% |
| Travis Kelce: Anytime Touchdown | 100% |
| Rashee Rice: Longest Reception O/U 19.5 | 100% |
| Travis Kelce: Longest Reception O/U 19.5 | 100% |
| Malik Willis: Passing Attempts O/U 23.5 | 100% |
| Malik Willis: Passing Attempts O/U 27.5 | 100% |
| Malik Willis: Passing Attempts O/U 31.5 | 100% |
| Malik Willis: Passing Completions O/U 15.5 | 100% |
| Malik Willis: Passing Completions O/U 17.5 | 100% |
| Malik Willis: Passing Completions O/U 19.5 | 100% |
| Patrick Mahomes: Passing Completions O/U 17.5 | 100% |
| Patrick Mahomes: Passing Completions O/U 19.5 | 100% |
| Kenneth Walker: Team First TD (Kansas City Chiefs) | 100% |
| Ollie Gordon II: Team First TD (Miami Dolphins) | 100% |
| Malik Washington: Longest Reception O/U 19.5 | 100% |
| Malik Willis: Passing Yards O/U 99.5 | 100% |
| Malik Willis: Passing Yards O/U 124.5 | 100% |
| Patrick Mahomes: Passing Yards O/U 124.5 | 100% |
| Patrick Mahomes: Passing Yards O/U 149.5 | 100% |
| Emmett Johnson: Rushing Yards O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Malik Willis: Rushing Yards O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Malik Willis: Rushing Yards O/U 49.5 | 100% |
| Travis Kelce: Receiving Yards O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Travis Kelce: Receiving Yards O/U 19.5 | 100% |
| Tyquan Thornton: Receiving Yards O/U 19.5 | 100% |
| Tyquan Thornton: Receptions O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Greg Dulcich: Receiving Yards O/U 19.5 | 100% |
| Greg Dulcich: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 100% |
| Greg Dulcich: Receiving Yards O/U 39.5 | 100% |
| Greg Dulcich: Receiving Yards O/U 49.5 | 100% |
| Malik Washington: Receiving Yards O/U 19.5 | 100% |
| Malik Washington: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 100% |
| Malik Washington: Receiving Yards O/U 39.5 | 100% |
| Malik Washington: Receiving Yards O/U 49.5 | 100% |
| Greg Dulcich: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Greg Dulcich: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 100% |
| Malik Washington: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Malik Washington: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 100% |
| Kevin Coleman Jr.: Receptions O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Chris Bell: Receiving Yards O/U 19.5 | 100% |
| Chris Bell: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 100% |
| Chris Bell: Receptions O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Chris Bell: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| De'Von Achane: Team First TD (Miami Dolphins) | 50% |
| Malik Willis: Passing Yards O/U 224.5 | 0% |
| Malik Willis: Passing Yards O/U 249.5 | 0% |
| Patrick Mahomes: Passing Yards O/U 249.5 | 0% |
| Patrick Mahomes: Passing Yards O/U 274.5 | 0% |
| Malik Willis: Passing Touchdowns O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Malik Willis: Passing Touchdowns O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Malik Willis: Passing Touchdowns O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Malik Willis: Passing Touchdowns O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| Patrick Mahomes: Passing Touchdowns O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Patrick Mahomes: Passing Touchdowns O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| De'Von Achane: Rushing Yards O/U 49.5 | 0% |
| De'Von Achane: Rushing Yards O/U 59.5 | 0% |
| De'Von Achane: Rushing Yards O/U 69.5 | 0% |
| De'Von Achane: Rushing Yards O/U 79.5 | 0% |
| De'Von Achane: Rushing Yards O/U 89.5 | 0% |
| Kenneth Walker: Rushing Yards O/U 79.5 | 0% |
| Kenneth Walker: Rushing Yards O/U 89.5 | 0% |
| Patrick Mahomes: Rushing Yards O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Patrick Mahomes: Rushing Yards O/U 19.5 | 0% |
| Patrick Mahomes: Rushing Yards O/U 29.5 | 0% |
| De'Von Achane: Receiving Yards O/U 19.5 | 0% |
| De'Von Achane: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 0% |
| De'Von Achane: Receiving Yards O/U 39.5 | 0% |
| Jalen Tolbert: Receiving Yards O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Kenneth Walker: Receiving Yards O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Kenneth Walker: Receiving Yards O/U 19.5 | 0% |
| Kenneth Walker: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 0% |
| Travis Kelce: Receiving Yards O/U 59.5 | 0% |
| Travis Kelce: Receiving Yards O/U 69.5 | 0% |
| Xavier Worthy: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 0% |
| Xavier Worthy: Receiving Yards O/U 39.5 | 0% |
| Xavier Worthy: Receiving Yards O/U 49.5 | 0% |
| Xavier Worthy: Receiving Yards O/U 59.5 | 0% |
| De'Von Achane: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| De'Von Achane: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| De'Von Achane: Receptions O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| Jalen Tolbert: Receptions O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Kenneth Walker: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Kenneth Walker: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| Travis Kelce: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Travis Kelce: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| Travis Kelce: Receptions O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| Xavier Worthy: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Xavier Worthy: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| Brashard Smith: Anytime Touchdown | 0% |
| Brashard Smith: 2+ Touchdowns | 0% |
| Chris Bell: Anytime Touchdown | 0% |
| Chris Bell: 2+ Touchdowns | 0% |
| Cyrus Allen: Anytime Touchdown | 0% |
| Cyrus Allen: 2+ Touchdowns | 0% |
| De'Von Achane: Anytime Touchdown | 0% |
| De'Von Achane: 2+ Touchdowns | 0% |
| Emmett Johnson: Anytime Touchdown | 0% |
| Emmett Johnson: 2+ Touchdowns | 0% |
| Greg Dulcich: Anytime Touchdown | 0% |
| Greg Dulcich: 2+ Touchdowns | 0% |
| Jake Briningstool: Anytime Touchdown | 0% |
| Jake Briningstool: 2+ Touchdowns | 0% |
| Jalen Royals: Anytime Touchdown | 0% |
| Jalen Royals: 2+ Touchdowns | 0% |
| Jalen Tolbert: Anytime Touchdown | 0% |
| Jalen Tolbert: 2+ Touchdowns | 0% |
| Jared Wiley: Anytime Touchdown | 0% |
| Jared Wiley: 2+ Touchdowns | 0% |
| Justin Joly: Anytime Touchdown | 0% |
| Justin Joly: 2+ Touchdowns | 0% |
| Kevin Coleman Jr.: Anytime Touchdown | 0% |
| Kevin Coleman Jr.: 2+ Touchdowns | 0% |
| Malik Washington: Anytime Touchdown | 0% |
| Malik Washington: 2+ Touchdowns | 0% |
| Malik Willis: Anytime Touchdown | 0% |
| Malik Willis: 2+ Touchdowns | 0% |
| Nikko Remigio: Anytime Touchdown | 0% |
| Nikko Remigio: 2+ Touchdowns | 0% |
| Noah Gray: Anytime Touchdown | 0% |
| Noah Gray: 2+ Touchdowns | 0% |
| Ollie Gordon II: 2+ Touchdowns | 0% |
| Patrick Mahomes: Anytime Touchdown | 0% |
| Patrick Mahomes: 2+ Touchdowns | 0% |
| Rashee Rice: Anytime Touchdown | 0% |
| Rashee Rice: 2+ Touchdowns | 0% |
| Ryan Miller: Anytime Touchdown | 0% |
| Ryan Miller: 2+ Touchdowns | 0% |
| Seydou Traore: Anytime Touchdown | 0% |
| Seydou Traore: 2+ Touchdowns | 0% |
| Travis Kelce: 2+ Touchdowns | 0% |
| Tyquan Thornton: Anytime Touchdown | 0% |
| Tyquan Thornton: 2+ Touchdowns | 0% |
| Will Kacmarek: Anytime Touchdown | 0% |
| Will Kacmarek: 2+ Touchdowns | 0% |
| Xavier Worthy: Anytime Touchdown | 0% |
| Xavier Worthy: 2+ Touchdowns | 0% |
| Xavier Worthy: Longest Reception O/U 19.5 | 0% |
| Patrick Mahomes: Passing Attempts O/U 27.5 | 0% |
| Patrick Mahomes: Passing Attempts O/U 31.5 | 0% |
| Patrick Mahomes: Passing Attempts O/U 35.5 | 0% |
| Patrick Mahomes: Passing Completions O/U 21.5 | 0% |
| Brashard Smith: Team First TD (Kansas City Chiefs) | 0% |
| Chris Bell: Team First TD (Miami Dolphins) | 0% |
| Cyrus Allen: Team First TD (Kansas City Chiefs) | 0% |
| Emmett Johnson: Team First TD (Kansas City Chiefs) | 0% |
| Greg Dulcich: Team First TD (Miami Dolphins) | 0% |
| Jake Briningstool: Team First TD (Kansas City Chiefs) | 0% |
| Jalen Royals: Team First TD (Kansas City Chiefs) | 0% |
| Jalen Tolbert: Team First TD (Miami Dolphins) | 0% |
| Jared Wiley: Team First TD (Kansas City Chiefs) | 0% |
| Justin Joly: Team First TD (Miami Dolphins) | 0% |
| Kevin Coleman Jr.: Team First TD (Miami Dolphins) | 0% |
| Malik Washington: Team First TD (Miami Dolphins) | 0% |
| Malik Willis: Team First TD (Miami Dolphins) | 0% |
| Nikko Remigio: Team First TD (Kansas City Chiefs) | 0% |
| Noah Gray: Team First TD (Kansas City Chiefs) | 0% |
| Patrick Mahomes: Team First TD (Kansas City Chiefs) | 0% |
| Rashee Rice: Team First TD (Kansas City Chiefs) | 0% |
| Ryan Miller: Team First TD (Miami Dolphins) | 0% |
| Seydou Traore: Team First TD (Miami Dolphins) | 0% |
| Travis Kelce: Team First TD (Kansas City Chiefs) | 0% |
| Tyquan Thornton: Team First TD (Kansas City Chiefs) | 0% |
| Will Kacmarek: Team First TD (Miami Dolphins) | 0% |
| Xavier Worthy: Team First TD (Kansas City Chiefs) | 0% |
| Malik Willis: Passing Yards O/U 274.5 | 0% |
| Patrick Mahomes: Passing Yards O/U 299.5 | 0% |
| Patrick Mahomes: Passing Yards O/U 324.5 | 0% |
| De'Von Achane: Rushing Yards O/U 29.5 | 0% |
| De'Von Achane: Rushing Yards O/U 39.5 | 0% |
| Emmett Johnson: Rushing Yards O/U 19.5 | 0% |
| Emmett Johnson: Rushing Yards O/U 29.5 | 0% |
| Kenneth Walker: Rushing Yards O/U 99.5 | 0% |
| Kenneth Walker: Rushing Yards O/U 109.5 | 0% |
| Malik Willis: Rushing Yards O/U 59.5 | 0% |
| Malik Willis: Rushing Yards O/U 69.5 | 0% |
| Patrick Mahomes: Rushing Yards O/U 14.5 | 0% |
| Patrick Mahomes: Rushing Yards O/U 24.5 | 0% |
| De'Von Achane: Receiving Yards O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| De'Von Achane: Receiving Yards O/U 49.5 | 0% |
| Travis Kelce: Receiving Yards O/U 79.5 | 0% |
| Travis Kelce: Receiving Yards O/U 89.5 | 0% |
| Tyquan Thornton: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 0% |
| Tyquan Thornton: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Jalen Tolbert: Receiving Yards O/U 19.5 | 0% |
| Jalen Tolbert: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 0% |
| Kevin Coleman Jr.: Receiving Yards O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Kevin Coleman Jr.: Receiving Yards O/U 19.5 | 0% |
| Kevin Coleman Jr.: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 0% |
| Kevin Coleman Jr.: Receptions O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Kevin Coleman Jr.: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Malik Willis: Passing Yards O/U 299.5 | 0% |
| Kenneth Walker: Receiving Yards O/U 39.5 | 0% |
| Kenneth Walker: Receiving Yards O/U 49.5 | 0% |
| Tyquan Thornton: Receiving Yards O/U 39.5 | 0% |
| Tyquan Thornton: Receiving Yards O/U 49.5 | 0% |
Markt-Kontext
Live-Daten von Polymarket zeigen 100% Ja-Wahrscheinlichkeit für Prognose: Chiefs vs. Dolphins - Player Props. Player prop markets for the NFL game between the Chiefs and Dolphins, scheduled for September 27 at 1:00 PM ET.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Diese Übersicht vergleicht Prognose: Chiefs vs. Dolphins - Player Props über fünf Plattformen. Die Live-Wahrscheinlichkeit ist der Polymarket-Mid-Preis aus dem Polygon-Orderbuch; die Vergleichs-Spalten zeigen Gebührenstruktur, KYC-Schwellen, Settlement-Währung und Zahlungswege jeder Plattform. Alle CTAs leiten zu PolyGram, das den Polymarket-Orderbuch zu 0 % Gebühren spiegelt.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Bei Auflösung tritt der UMA-Oracle-Mechanismus in Aktion: ein Vorschlagender stellt das Ergebnis mit einem Bond ein, jeder Token-Halter kann es innerhalb von zwei Stunden disputieren. Ohne Dispute wird das Ergebnis akzeptiert und der Smart Contract zahlt sofort aus.
Auf Kalshi (CFTC-reguliert) erfolgt die Auflösung über die hauseigene Clearing-Engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settelt nach Match-Ende in der jeweiligen Konto-Währung. Manifold zahlt keine Cash-Beträge — nur die platforme-eigene "Mana"-Währung.
Häufige Fragen
- Wo kann ich diesen Markt am günstigsten handeln?
- Polymarket selbst ist global zugänglich, in DE/AT/CH allerdings geo-blockiert. Der einfachste Broker mit gleichem Orderbuch und 0 % Gebühr ist PolyGram. Kalshi nimmt bis zu 7 % pro Trade, Betfair Exchange 2-5 % Kommission auf Gewinne.
- Wie funktioniert die Auflösung?
- Über das UMA Optimistic Oracle: ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, USDC-Auszahlung erfolgt automatisch.
- Wie lange dauert eine USDC-Einzahlung?
- Auf Polygon werden Einzahlungen nach 12 Bestätigungen gutgeschrieben — in der Regel unter 30 Sekunden. Withdrawals folgen demselben Pfad und sind binnen Minuten auf Ihrer Wallet.
- Brauche ich KYC für diesen Markt?
- Auf Polymarket direkt nicht. Über vermittelnde Broker wie PolyGram ist KYC erst ab $1.500 lebenslangem Trading-Volumen erforderlich — darunter handeln Sie pseudonym mit nur einer Wallet-Adresse.
- Wie verlässlich sind die angezeigten Quoten?
- Die YES/NO-Prozentsätze sind die Live-Mid-Preise des Polymarket-Orderbuchs. Auf Märkten mit hoher Liquidität bewegen sich diese Werte sekündlich; bei dünneren Märkten sehen Sie kurze Plateaus.
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