Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über PolyGram) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
94% | 6% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
94% | 6% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| O/U 24.5 | 94% |
| O/U 26.5 | 91% |
| O/U 28.5 | 90% |
| Vikings O/U 10.5 | 89% |
| Buccaneers O/U 10.5 | 87% |
| O/U 30.5 | 84% |
| 2Q O/U 6.5 | 83% |
| O/U 32.5 | 79% |
| 4Q O/U 6.5 | 78% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 77% |
| Vikings 1H O/U 6.5 | 74% |
| Buccaneers 1H O/U 6.5 | 74% |
| O/U 34.5 | 73% |
| 1H O/U 16.5 | 72% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 70% |
| O/U 36.5 | 69% |
| 1Q O/U 6.5 | 65% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 65% |
| O/U 38.5 | 59% |
| 1H O/U 19.5 | 59% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 59% |
| O/U 40.5 | 56% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 2Q | 56% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 4Q | 54% |
| Vikings vs. Buccaneers | 53% |
| O/U 41.5 | 53% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 53% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 52% |
| 1H Moneyline | 52% |
| Vikings O/U 12.5 | 52% |
| Vikings O/U 13.5 | 52% |
| Vikings O/U 16.5 | 52% |
| Vikings O/U 20.5 | 52% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 51% |
| 1Q O/U 5.5 | 51% |
| Buccaneers O/U 13.5 | 51% |
| Buccaneers O/U 16.5 | 51% |
| Buccaneers O/U 20.5 | 51% |
| O/U 42.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Vikings by 25+ | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Vikings by 19-24 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Vikings by 13-18 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Vikings by 7-12 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Vikings by 1-6 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Buccaneers by 1-6 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Buccaneers by 7-13 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Buccaneers by 14-20 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Buccaneers by 21+ | 50% |
| Safety? | 50% |
| Team to Record Longest FG | 50% |
| Vikings Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Buccaneers Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Vikings vs. Buccaneers: Total Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Vikings Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Buccaneers Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Vikings O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Vikings O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Buccaneers O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Buccaneers O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Buccaneers O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| Vikings 1H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Vikings 1H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Buccaneers 1H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Buccaneers 1H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Vikings 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Vikings 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Vikings 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Vikings 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Vikings 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Vikings 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Vikings 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Vikings 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Buccaneers 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Buccaneers 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Buccaneers 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Buccaneers 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Buccaneers 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Buccaneers 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Buccaneers 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Buccaneers 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Spread -1.5 | 49% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 49% |
| Vikings O/U 26.5 | 49% |
| Vikings O/U 27.5 | 49% |
| Vikings O/U 30.5 | 49% |
| Vikings O/U 34.5 | 49% |
| Buccaneers O/U 26.5 | 49% |
| Buccaneers O/U 34.5 | 49% |
| Spread -0.5 | 47% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 47% |
| O/U 43.5 | 46% |
| Spread -2.5 | 46% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 46% |
| 1H O/U 22.5 | 46% |
| Spread -1.5 | 45% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 45% |
| Vikings 1H O/U 10.5 | 45% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 44% |
| O/U 44.5 | 43% |
| Buccaneers 1H O/U 10.5 | 43% |
| Spread -2.5 | 42% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 3Q | 42% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 42% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 41% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 41% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 40% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 40% |
| O/U 45.5 | 39% |
| Spread -3.5 | 39% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 39% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 39% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 39% |
| 2Q O/U 14.5 | 39% |
| O/U 46.5 | 38% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 38% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 37% |
| Spread -3.5 | 36% |
| Spread -4.5 | 36% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 36% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 36% |
| O/U 47.5 | 34% |
| Spread -5.5 | 34% |
| 1H O/U 25.5 | 34% |
| 4Q O/U 14.5 | 34% |
| Vikings 1H O/U 13.5 | 34% |
| Spread -4.5 | 33% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 1Q | 33% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 33% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 33% |
| Buccaneers O/U 23.5 | 33% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 32% |
| Buccaneers 1H O/U 13.5 | 32% |
| O/U 48.5 | 31% |
| Spread -6.5 | 31% |
| Spread -5.5 | 31% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 31% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 31% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 30% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 29% |
| Spread -6.5 | 28% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 28% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 28% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 28% |
| O/U 50.5 | 27% |
| Spread -7.5 | 27% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 27% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 27% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 27% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 26% |
| Spread -8.5 | 24% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 24% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 23% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 23% |
| O/U 52.5 | 22% |
| Spread -9.5 | 22% |
| Spread -7.5 | 22% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 22% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 22% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 22% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 22% |
| Vikings 1H O/U 16.5 | 22% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 21% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 21% |
| Buccaneers O/U 30.5 | 21% |
| Spread -10.5 | 20% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 20% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 20% |
| 1H O/U 28.5 | 20% |
| Buccaneers 1H O/U 16.5 | 20% |
| Spread -8.5 | 19% |
| Spread -9.5 | 19% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 19% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 19% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 19% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 19% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 19% |
| O/U 54.5 | 18% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 18% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 18% |
| Spread -10.5 | 17% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 17% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 17% |
| Spread -13.5 | 16% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 15% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 14% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 14% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 14% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 14% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 14% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 14% |
| 3Q O/U 14.5 | 14% |
| O/U 56.5 | 13% |
| Spread -13.5 | 13% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 13% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 13% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 13% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 13% |
| Spread -14.5 | 12% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 12% |
| Vikings 1H O/U 19.5 | 12% |
| Buccaneers 1H O/U 19.5 | 12% |
| O/U 58.5 | 11% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 11% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 11% |
| Spread -16.5 | 10% |
| Spread -14.5 | 10% |
| 1Q O/U 14.5 | 10% |
| Vikings 1H O/U 20.5 | 10% |
| O/U 60.5 | 9% |
| Spread -17.5 | 9% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 9% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 9% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 9% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 9% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 9% |
| Spread -19.5 | 8% |
| Spread -20.5 | 8% |
| Spread -21.5 | 8% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 8% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 8% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 8% |
| O/U 64.5 | 7% |
| Spread -19.5 | 7% |
| Spread -16.5 | 7% |
| Spread -17.5 | 7% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 7% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 7% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 7% |
| Buccaneers 1H O/U 20.5 | 7% |
| O/U 62.5 | 6% |
| Spread -20.5 | 5% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 5% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 5% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 5% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 5% |
| Spread -21.5 | 4% |
| Exact Margin: Tie | 2% |
Markt-Kontext
Live-Daten von Polymarket zeigen 94% Ja-Wahrscheinlichkeit für Prognose: Vikings vs. Buccaneers. In the upcoming NFL game, scheduled for September 27 at 4:05PM ET: If Vikings wins, the market will resolve to "Vikings". If Buccaneers wins, the market will resolve to "Buccaneers". If the game is po…
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $153K.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Wir tracken Prognose: Vikings vs. Buccaneers auf den fünf Plattformen mit substanzieller Prediction-Market-Liquidität. Die angezeigte Wahrscheinlichkeit ist der Polymarket-Live-Mid; die Vergleichszeilen zeigen, wie jede Plattform den zugrundeliegenden Vertrag handhabt — Gebühren, KYC, Settlement, Einzahlungsmethoden. Die hervorgehobene Zeile markiert die günstigste Route in Polymarkets Orderbuch.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Die Auflösung läuft on-chain. Polymarkets Vertragslogik trennt YES- und NO-Anteile als Conditional Tokens; bei Auflösung werden die richtigen Anteile zu 100¢ und die anderen zu 0¢. Die Outcome-Eingabe kommt vom UMA Optimistic Oracle, das mit einem Bond-System gegen falsche Auflösung absichert.
Sobald die Auflösung durch ist, hebt der Smart Contract alle gewinnenden Anteile zu USDC und schickt die Beträge an die Wallets der Inhaber. Das geschieht binnen Minuten der finalen Bestätigung — ohne Auszahlungsgebühren über die Polygon-Netzwerkkosten hinaus.
Häufige Fragen
- Wie funktioniert die Auflösung?
- Über das UMA Optimistic Oracle: ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, USDC-Auszahlung erfolgt automatisch.
- Was ist der Unterschied zwischen YES- und NO-Anteilen?
- Ein YES-Anteil zahlt $1,00 bei Eintritt des Ereignisses, sonst $0. Ein NO-Anteil zahlt $1,00, wenn das Ereignis nicht eintritt. Der Marktpreis zwischen 0¢ und 100¢ ist die implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit.
- Welche Gebühren fallen bei Polymarket an?
- Direkt am Polymarket-Orderbuch keine Gebühren — die einzigen Kosten sind Polygon-Netzwerkgebühren (typischerweise unter $0,01 pro Transaktion). Off-chain Plattformen wie Kalshi oder Betfair verlangen 2-7 % Kommission.
- Brauche ich KYC für diesen Markt?
- Auf Polymarket direkt nicht. Über vermittelnde Broker wie PolyGram ist KYC erst ab $1.500 lebenslangem Trading-Volumen erforderlich — darunter handeln Sie pseudonym mit nur einer Wallet-Adresse.
- Wie verlässlich sind die angezeigten Quoten?
- Die YES/NO-Prozentsätze sind die Live-Mid-Preise des Polymarket-Orderbuchs. Auf Märkten mit hoher Liquidität bewegen sich diese Werte sekündlich; bei dünneren Märkten sehen Sie kurze Plateaus.
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