Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über PolyGram) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
98% | 2% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
98% | 2% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| O/U 27.5 | 98% |
| O/U 24.5 | 98% |
| O/U 26.5 | 98% |
| O/U 28.5 | 97% |
| Lions O/U 10.5 | 96% |
| O/U 29.5 | 95% |
| O/U 30.5 | 95% |
| 2Q O/U 5.5 | 95% |
| O/U 31.5 | 94% |
| O/U 32.5 | 94% |
| O/U 33.5 | 93% |
| 4Q O/U 5.5 | 93% |
| 2Q O/U 6.5 | 92% |
| Lions O/U 12.5 | 92% |
| Lions O/U 13.5 | 92% |
| Lions O/U 16.5 | 92% |
| Panthers O/U 10.5 | 92% |
| O/U 35.5 | 91% |
| O/U 34.5 | 91% |
| Panthers O/U 12.5 | 90% |
| O/U 36.5 | 89% |
| 1Q O/U 5.5 | 89% |
| 3Q O/U 5.5 | 89% |
| 4Q O/U 6.5 | 89% |
| Lions O/U 19.5 | 89% |
| Lions 1H O/U 6.5 | 89% |
| 1H O/U 16.5 | 88% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 88% |
| Panthers O/U 13.5 | 88% |
| O/U 37.5 | 87% |
| O/U 38.5 | 86% |
| O/U 39.5 | 84% |
| O/U 40.5 | 82% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 81% |
| Lions O/U 20.5 | 81% |
| 1H O/U 19.5 | 80% |
| Panthers 1H O/U 6.5 | 80% |
| O/U 41.5 | 79% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 79% |
| Panthers O/U 16.5 | 79% |
| 2H Moneyline | 78% |
| O/U 42.5 | 78% |
| 1Q O/U 6.5 | 78% |
| Lions 1H O/U 10.5 | 77% |
| O/U 43.5 | 75% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 74% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 73% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 2Q | 72% |
| O/U 44.5 | 71% |
| O/U 45.5 | 71% |
| Lions O/U 23.5 | 70% |
| Panthers O/U 19.5 | 69% |
| O/U 46.5 | 68% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 4Q | 68% |
| Lions vs. Panthers | 67% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 67% |
| 1H O/U 22.5 | 66% |
| Spread -1.5 | 64% |
| O/U 47.5 | 64% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 64% |
| Spread -2.5 | 63% |
| Lions O/U 26.5 | 63% |
| Lions 1H O/U 12.5 | 63% |
| Panthers O/U 20.5 | 62% |
| 1H Moneyline | 62% |
| O/U 48.5 | 61% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 61% |
| O/U 49.5 | 59% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 59% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 59% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 58% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 58% |
| O/U 50.5 | 56% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 56% |
| Lions O/U 27.5 | 56% |
| Lions 1H O/U 13.5 | 56% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 54% |
| Spread -3.5 | 53% |
| O/U 51.5 | 52% |
| 1H O/U 25.5 | 52% |
| 2H O/U 16.5 | 52% |
| 2Q O/U 14.5 | 52% |
| Lions 2H O/U 10.5 | 52% |
| Lions 2H O/U 12.5 | 52% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 51% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 51% |
| Lions 2H O/U 6.5 | 51% |
| Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| Panthers O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Lions 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Lions 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Lions 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Lions 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Lions 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Panthers 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Panthers 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Team to Record Longest FG | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 3Q | 50% |
| Lions Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Panthers Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Lions vs. Panthers: Total Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Lions Total Touchdowns: O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Panthers Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 49% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 49% |
| O/U 52.5 | 49% |
| Panthers 1H O/U 10.5 | 49% |
| Panthers 2H O/U 12.5 | 49% |
| Panthers 2H O/U 13.5 | 49% |
| Panthers 2H O/U 16.5 | 49% |
| Panthers 2H O/U 17.5 | 49% |
| Panthers 2H O/U 19.5 | 49% |
| Panthers 2H O/U 20.5 | 49% |
| 4Q O/U 14.5 | 48% |
| Spread -5.5 | 47% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 47% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 1Q | 47% |
| O/U 53.5 | 46% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 46% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 46% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 46% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 45% |
| Spread -6.5 | 44% |
| Panthers 1H O/U 12.5 | 44% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 43% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 43% |
| O/U 54.5 | 43% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 42% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 41% |
| Lions O/U 30.5 | 41% |
| Lions 1H O/U 16.5 | 41% |
| O/U 55.5 | 40% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 40% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 40% |
| Panthers 1H O/U 13.5 | 40% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 39% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 39% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 39% |
| Panthers O/U 26.5 | 39% |
| Spread -7.5 | 38% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 38% |
| O/U 56.5 | 38% |
| 1H O/U 28.5 | 38% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 37% |
| O/U 57.5 | 36% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 36% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 36% |
| Spread -8.5 | 35% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 35% |
| Spread -9.5 | 34% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 34% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 34% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 34% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 33% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 33% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 33% |
| Lions 1H O/U 17.5 | 33% |
| Spread -1.5 | 32% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 32% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 32% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 32% |
| O/U 58.5 | 32% |
| Panthers O/U 27.5 | 32% |
| O/U 59.5 | 31% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 31% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 31% |
| Spread -10.5 | 30% |
| Spread -2.5 | 29% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 29% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 28% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 28% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 28% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 28% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 28% |
| O/U 60.5 | 28% |
| Lions 1H O/U 19.5 | 28% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 27% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 27% |
| Spread -13.5 | 26% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 26% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 26% |
| Panthers 1H O/U 16.5 | 26% |
| O/U 61.5 | 25% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 25% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 25% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 24% |
| 3Q O/U 14.5 | 24% |
| Spread -3.5 | 23% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 23% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 23% |
| O/U 62.5 | 23% |
| Panthers O/U 30.5 | 23% |
| Lions 1H O/U 20.5 | 23% |
| O/U 63.5 | 22% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 22% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 22% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 22% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 22% |
| Spread -14.5 | 21% |
| Spread -4.5 | 21% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 21% |
| Panthers 1H O/U 17.5 | 20% |
| Spread -16.5 | 19% |
| Spread -5.5 | 19% |
| Spread -6.5 | 19% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 19% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 19% |
| O/U 64.5 | 19% |
| 1Q O/U 14.5 | 19% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 18% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 18% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 18% |
| O/U 65.5 | 17% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 17% |
| Spread -17.5 | 16% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 16% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 16% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 16% |
| Lions O/U 34.5 | 16% |
| Exact Margin: Lions by 1-6 | 16% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 15% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 15% |
| O/U 67.5 | 14% |
| Spread -19.5 | 14% |
| Spread -7.5 | 14% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 14% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 14% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 14% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 14% |
| Panthers 1H O/U 19.5 | 14% |
| Spread -20.5 | 13% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 13% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 13% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 13% |
| Spread -8.5 | 12% |
| Spread -9.5 | 12% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 12% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 12% |
| Exact Margin: Panthers by 1-6 | 12% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 11% |
| Panthers 1H O/U 20.5 | 11% |
| Spread -21.5 | 10% |
| Spread -10.5 | 10% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 10% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 10% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 10% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 10% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 10% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 10% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 10% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 10% |
| Exact Margin: Lions by 7-12 | 10% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 9% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 9% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 9% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 9% |
| Panthers O/U 34.5 | 9% |
| Spread -13.5 | 8% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 8% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 8% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 8% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 8% |
| Exact Margin: Lions by 13-18 | 8% |
| Spread -14.5 | 7% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 7% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 7% |
| Safety? | 7% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 6% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 6% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 6% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 6% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 6% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 6% |
| Exact Margin: Panthers by 7-13 | 6% |
| Spread -16.5 | 5% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 5% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 5% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 5% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 5% |
| Exact Margin: Lions by 19-24 | 5% |
| Spread -17.5 | 4% |
| Spread -19.5 | 4% |
| Spread -20.5 | 4% |
| Spread -21.5 | 4% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 4% |
| Exact Margin: Lions by 25+ | 3% |
| Exact Margin: Panthers by 14-20 | 3% |
| Exact Margin: Panthers by 21+ | 2% |
| Exact Margin: Tie | 0% |
Markt-Kontext
Der Prognosemarkt für „Prognose: Lions vs. Panthers" bewertet dieses Ergebnis derzeit mit 98% Ja-Wahrscheinlichkeit. In the upcoming NFL game, scheduled for October 4 at 8:20PM ET: If Lions wins, the market will resolve to "Lions". If Panthers wins, the market will resolve to "Panthers". If the game is postponed, th…
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $2.5M.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Diese Seite ist als Vergleichs-Snapshot konzipiert: ein Live-Kurs (Polymarket), vier Referenz-Plattformen mit ihren Schlüssel-Eigenschaften, und ein durchgehender Pfad zur Ausführung — alle Trade-Buttons routen zu PolyGram, das den Polymarket-Orderbuch direkt spiegelt.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Die Auflösung läuft on-chain. Polymarkets Vertragslogik trennt YES- und NO-Anteile als Conditional Tokens; bei Auflösung werden die richtigen Anteile zu 100¢ und die anderen zu 0¢. Die Outcome-Eingabe kommt vom UMA Optimistic Oracle, das mit einem Bond-System gegen falsche Auflösung absichert.
Sobald die Auflösung durch ist, hebt der Smart Contract alle gewinnenden Anteile zu USDC und schickt die Beträge an die Wallets der Inhaber. Das geschieht binnen Minuten der finalen Bestätigung — ohne Auszahlungsgebühren über die Polygon-Netzwerkkosten hinaus.
Häufige Fragen
- Wo kann ich diesen Markt am günstigsten handeln?
- Polymarket selbst ist global zugänglich, in DE/AT/CH allerdings geo-blockiert. Der einfachste Broker mit gleichem Orderbuch und 0 % Gebühr ist PolyGram. Kalshi nimmt bis zu 7 % pro Trade, Betfair Exchange 2-5 % Kommission auf Gewinne.
- Wie funktioniert die Auflösung?
- Über das UMA Optimistic Oracle: ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, USDC-Auszahlung erfolgt automatisch.
- Was ist der Unterschied zwischen YES- und NO-Anteilen?
- Ein YES-Anteil zahlt $1,00 bei Eintritt des Ereignisses, sonst $0. Ein NO-Anteil zahlt $1,00, wenn das Ereignis nicht eintritt. Der Marktpreis zwischen 0¢ und 100¢ ist die implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit.
- Welche Gebühren fallen bei Polymarket an?
- Direkt am Polymarket-Orderbuch keine Gebühren — die einzigen Kosten sind Polygon-Netzwerkgebühren (typischerweise unter $0,01 pro Transaktion). Off-chain Plattformen wie Kalshi oder Betfair verlangen 2-7 % Kommission.
- Brauche ich KYC für diesen Markt?
- Auf Polymarket direkt nicht. Über vermittelnde Broker wie PolyGram ist KYC erst ab $1.500 lebenslangem Trading-Volumen erforderlich — darunter handeln Sie pseudonym mit nur einer Wallet-Adresse.
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Jetzt „Prognose: Lions vs. Panthers" auf PolyGram handeln
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