Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über PolyGram) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
85% | 15% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
85% | 15% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| O/U 221.5 | 85% |
| Mavericks O/U 105.5 | 83% |
| Pacers O/U 112.5 | 83% |
| Pacers O/U 113.5 | 81% |
| O/U 224.5 | 80% |
| Mavericks O/U 106.5 | 78% |
| O/U 227.5 | 75% |
| 1H O/U 114.5 | 74% |
| Pacers O/U 116.5 | 73% |
| O/U 230.5 | 71% |
| Pacers 1H O/U 58.5 | 71% |
| Pacers O/U 117.5 | 70% |
| Spread -1.5 | 69% |
| O/U 231.5 | 68% |
| Mavericks O/U 110.5 | 68% |
| Mavericks 1H O/U 55.5 | 67% |
| 4Q O/U 54.5 | 67% |
| O/U 232.5 | 66% |
| Kyrie Irving: Points O/U 9.5 | 66% |
| Pacers O/U 118.5 | 66% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 65% |
| Mavericks O/U 111.5 | 65% |
| O/U 233.5 | 64% |
| 1H O/U 118.5 | 64% |
| Spread -3.5 | 63% |
| O/U 234.5 | 63% |
| Pacers 1H O/U 60.5 | 63% |
| Andrew Nembhard: Assists O/U 5.5 | 62% |
| O/U 235.5 | 60% |
| Spread -4.5 | 60% |
| Ivica Zubac: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 60% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 60% |
| O/U 236.5 | 58% |
| Mavericks 1H O/U 57.5 | 58% |
| Spread -5.5 | 57% |
| Pacers O/U 121.5 | 57% |
| O/U 237.5 | 56% |
| Kyrie Irving: Points O/U 14.5 | 56% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 56% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 56% |
| O/U 238.5 | 55% |
| Kelly Oubre Jr.: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 55% |
| Daniel Gafford: Points O/U 4.5 | 55% |
| Mavericks O/U 115.5 | 55% |
| Pacers O/U 122.5 | 55% |
| Spread -6.5 | 54% |
| Naji Marshall: Assists O/U 3.5 | 54% |
| Kelly Oubre Jr.: Points O/U 9.5 | 54% |
| 3Q O/U 58.5 | 54% |
| Cooper Flagg: Assists O/U 4.5 | 53% |
| Andrew Nembhard: Rebounds O/U 2.5 | 53% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 53% |
| 4Q O/U 56.5 | 53% |
| Pacers 1H O/U 62.5 | 53% |
| Pacers 1H O/U 59.5 | 53% |
| Pacers 1H O/U 61.5 | 53% |
| O/U 239.5 | 53% |
| Naji Marshall: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 52% |
| P.J. Washington: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 52% |
| 1H O/U 122.5 | 52% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 52% |
| 1Q O/U 61.5 | 52% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 52% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 52% |
| Kelly Oubre Jr.: Points O/U 4.5 | 51% |
| Obi Toppin: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 51% |
| Pacers O/U 123.5 | 51% |
| Team to Score First | 50% |
| Odd/Even Score | 50% |
| O/U 240.5 | 50% |
| Race to 10 | 50% |
| Race to 20 | 50% |
| Race to 30 | 50% |
| P.J. Washington: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Cooper Flagg: Points O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Max Christie: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Obi Toppin: Points O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Tyrese Haliburton: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Tyrese Haliburton: Assists O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Obi Toppin: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Obi Toppin: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Obi Toppin: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Andrew Nembhard: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Andrew Nembhard: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Andrew Nembhard: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Cooper Flagg: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Cooper Flagg: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Cooper Flagg: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Kyrie Irving: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Kyrie Irving: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Kyrie Irving: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Pascal Siakam: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Pascal Siakam: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Pascal Siakam: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Tyrese Haliburton: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Tyrese Haliburton: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Tyrese Haliburton: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Cooper Flagg: Blocks O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Cooper Flagg: Blocks O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Cooper Flagg: Blocks O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Daniel Gafford: Blocks O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Daniel Gafford: Blocks O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Daniel Gafford: Blocks O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| P.J. Washington: Blocks O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| P.J. Washington: Blocks O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| P.J. Washington: Blocks O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Tyrese Haliburton: Blocks O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Tyrese Haliburton: Blocks O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Tyrese Haliburton: Blocks O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Zaccharie Risacher: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Zaccharie Risacher: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Zaccharie Risacher: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Zaccharie Risacher: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 58.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 64.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 53.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 59.5 | 50% |
| Pacers O/U 111.5 | 50% |
| Mavericks 1H O/U 59.5 | 50% |
| Mavericks O/U 116.5 | 50% |
| Mavericks 2H O/U 54.5 | 50% |
| Mavericks 2H O/U 56.5 | 50% |
| Mavericks 2H O/U 58.5 | 50% |
| Mavericks 2H O/U 60.5 | 50% |
| Mavericks 2H O/U 62.5 | 50% |
| Pacers 2H O/U 56.5 | 50% |
| Pacers 2H O/U 58.5 | 50% |
| Pacers 2H O/U 60.5 | 50% |
| Pacers 2H O/U 62.5 | 50% |
| Pacers 2H O/U 64.5 | 50% |
| Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| Pacers 1H O/U 65.5 | 50% |
| Pacers 1H O/U 63.5 | 50% |
| Pacers 1H O/U 67.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 59.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 57.5 | 50% |
| Cooper Flagg: Points O/U 24.5 | 49% |
| P.J. Washington: Points O/U 24.5 | 49% |
| P.J. Washington: Assists O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| Cooper Flagg: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| Ivica Zubac: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 49% |
| Max Christie: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 49% |
| 2Q O/U 60.5 | 49% |
| Daniel Gafford: Points O/U 9.5 | 48% |
| Naji Marshall: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 48% |
| Pascal Siakam: Points O/U 14.5 | 48% |
| Tyrese Haliburton: Points O/U 19.5 | 48% |
| Ivica Zubac: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 48% |
| Pascal Siakam: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 48% |
| Zaccharie Risacher: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 48% |
| Zaccharie Risacher: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 48% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 48% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 48% |
| Andrew Nembhard: Points O/U 9.5 | 47% |
| Andrew Nembhard: Points O/U 14.5 | 47% |
| Ivica Zubac: Points O/U 9.5 | 47% |
| Obi Toppin: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 47% |
| Tyrese Haliburton: Assists O/U 5.5 | 47% |
| Spread -8.5 | 46% |
| Overtime? | 46% |
| Kyrie Irving: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 46% |
| Cooper Flagg: Points O/U 19.5 | 46% |
| Tyrese Haliburton: Assists O/U 9.5 | 46% |
| Kyrie Irving: Points O/U 20.5 | 45% |
| Pascal Siakam: Points O/U 19.5 | 45% |
| Pacers 1H O/U 64.5 | 45% |
| P.J. Washington: Assists O/U 2.5 | 44% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 44% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 44% |
| O/U 243.5 | 43% |
| Daniel Gafford: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 43% |
| Kyrie Irving: Points O/U 19.5 | 43% |
| Kelly Oubre Jr.: Assists O/U 1.5 | 43% |
| Andrew Nembhard: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 43% |
| Zaccharie Risacher: Assists O/U 2.5 | 43% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 43% |
| Spread -9.5 | 42% |
| Kyrie Irving: Assists O/U 4.5 | 42% |
| Tyrese Haliburton: Points O/U 14.5 | 42% |
| Tyrese Haliburton: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 42% |
| Cooper Flagg: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 41% |
| P.J. Washington: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 41% |
| Kelly Oubre Jr.: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 41% |
| Pascal Siakam: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 41% |
| Pacers O/U 126.5 | 41% |
| Cooper Flagg: Assists O/U 5.5 | 40% |
| Obi Toppin: Points O/U 19.5 | 40% |
| Pascal Siakam: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 40% |
| Andrew Nembhard: Assists O/U 11.5 | 40% |
| Obi Toppin: Assists O/U 2.5 | 40% |
| Pascal Siakam: Assists O/U 3.5 | 40% |
| Kelly Oubre Jr.: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 40% |
| Mavericks 1H O/U 61.5 | 40% |
| Obi Toppin: Points O/U 24.5 | 39% |
| Ivica Zubac: Assists O/U 2.5 | 39% |
| Max Christie: Assists O/U 1.5 | 39% |
| Max Christie: Assists O/U 4.5 | 39% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 39% |
| P.J. Washington: Points O/U 9.5 | 38% |
| 1H O/U 126.5 | 38% |
| Mavericks O/U 120.5 | 38% |
| O/U 246.5 | 37% |
| Naji Marshall: Points O/U 14.5 | 37% |
| Cooper Flagg: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 37% |
| Daniel Gafford: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 37% |
| Pacers O/U 127.5 | 37% |
| Spread -11.5 | 36% |
| Kyrie Irving: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 36% |
| Kyrie Irving: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 36% |
| Pacers 1H O/U 66.5 | 36% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 36% |
| Ivica Zubac: Points O/U 14.5 | 35% |
| Pascal Siakam: Points O/U 34.5 | 35% |
| 1H Moneyline | 35% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 35% |
| Mavericks O/U 121.5 | 35% |
| Naji Marshall: Points O/U 12.5 | 34% |
| Kyrie Irving: Assists O/U 3.5 | 34% |
| Andrew Nembhard: Assists O/U 6.5 | 34% |
| Max Christie: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 34% |
| Tyrese Haliburton: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 33% |
| Zaccharie Risacher: Points O/U 14.5 | 33% |
| Pacers O/U 128.5 | 33% |
| Max Christie: Points O/U 10.5 | 32% |
| Kyrie Irving: Points O/U 34.5 | 32% |
| Max Christie: Assists O/U 9.5 | 32% |
| P.J. Washington: Points O/U 12.5 | 31% |
| Naji Marshall: Points O/U 9.5 | 31% |
| Max Christie: Points O/U 9.5 | 31% |
| Pascal Siakam: Points O/U 24.5 | 31% |
| Ivica Zubac: Rebounds O/U 17.5 | 31% |
| Mavericks vs. Pacers | 30% |
| Cooper Flagg: Rebounds O/U 6.5 | 30% |
| Naji Marshall: Assists O/U 4.5 | 30% |
| Kelly Oubre Jr.: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 30% |
| Obi Toppin: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 30% |
| Pascal Siakam: Assists O/U 4.5 | 30% |
| Zaccharie Risacher: Points O/U 9.5 | 30% |
| Mavericks 1H O/U 63.5 | 30% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 30% |
| O/U 249.5 | 29% |
| Kelly Oubre Jr.: Assists O/U 2.5 | 29% |
| Tyrese Haliburton: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 29% |
| Spread -14.5 | 28% |
| Spread -1.5 | 28% |
| Max Christie: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 28% |
| Obi Toppin: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 28% |
| Zaccharie Risacher: Assists O/U 1.5 | 28% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 28% |
| Obi Toppin: Assists O/U 1.5 | 27% |
| Andrew Nembhard: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 27% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 27% |
| 1H O/U 130.5 | 26% |
| Andrew Nembhard: Assists O/U 7.5 | 25% |
| Pacers O/U 131.5 | 25% |
| 4Q O/U 60.5 | 25% |
| Kyrie Irving: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 24% |
| P.J. Washington: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 24% |
| Pascal Siakam: Points O/U 39.5 | 24% |
| Andrew Nembhard: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 24% |
| Max Christie: Assists O/U 2.5 | 24% |
| Mavericks O/U 125.5 | 24% |
| Cooper Flagg: Points O/U 29.5 | 23% |
| P.J. Washington: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 23% |
| Obi Toppin: Points O/U 14.5 | 23% |
| Ivica Zubac: Points O/U 19.5 | 22% |
| Pascal Siakam: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 22% |
| Max Christie: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 22% |
| Spread -17.5 | 21% |
| Spread -4.5 | 21% |
| P.J. Washington: Points O/U 14.5 | 21% |
| Pascal Siakam: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 21% |
| Cooper Flagg: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 20% |
| Tyrese Haliburton: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 20% |
| Mavericks O/U 126.5 | 20% |
| Pacers O/U 133.5 | 20% |
| Cooper Flagg: Assists O/U 9.5 | 19% |
| Ivica Zubac: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | 19% |
| Tyrese Haliburton: Assists O/U 15.5 | 18% |
| Kyrie Irving: Points O/U 24.5 | 17% |
| P.J. Washington: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 17% |
| Kyrie Irving: Assists O/U 5.5 | 17% |
| Naji Marshall: Points O/U 24.5 | 16% |
| Cooper Flagg: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 16% |
| Kelly Oubre Jr.: Points O/U 14.5 | 16% |
| Max Christie: Points O/U 14.5 | 16% |
| Max Christie: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 16% |
| Tyrese Haliburton: Assists O/U 11.5 | 16% |
| Spread -20.5 | 15% |
| Pascal Siakam: Points O/U 29.5 | 15% |
| Tyrese Haliburton: Points O/U 24.5 | 15% |
| Daniel Gafford: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 15% |
| Spread -7.5 | 14% |
| Kyrie Irving: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 14% |
| Andrew Nembhard: Assists O/U 9.5 | 14% |
| Ivica Zubac: Assists O/U 3.5 | 14% |
| Andrew Nembhard: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 14% |
| Max Christie: Assists O/U 7.5 | 14% |
| Cooper Flagg: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 13% |
| P.J. Washington: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 13% |
| Andrew Nembhard: Points O/U 19.5 | 13% |
| Pascal Siakam: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 13% |
| Cooper Flagg: Assists O/U 7.5 | 12% |
| Ivica Zubac: Rebounds O/U 15.5 | 12% |
| Tyrese Haliburton: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 12% |
| Pascal Siakam: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 11% |
| Kelly Oubre Jr.: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 11% |
| Daniel Gafford: Points O/U 14.5 | 11% |
| Cooper Flagg: Points O/U 39.5 | 10% |
| Naji Marshall: Points O/U 19.5 | 10% |
| Cooper Flagg: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 10% |
| Cooper Flagg: Points O/U 34.5 | 9% |
| P.J. Washington: Points O/U 19.5 | 9% |
| Kyrie Irving: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 9% |
| Tyrese Haliburton: Assists O/U 13.5 | 9% |
| Daniel Gafford: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 9% |
| Kyrie Irving: Points O/U 29.5 | 8% |
| Kyrie Irving: Assists O/U 7.5 | 8% |
| Tyrese Haliburton: Points O/U 29.5 | 8% |
| Ivica Zubac: Points O/U 24.5 | 7% |
| Andrew Nembhard: Points O/U 24.5 | 6% |
| Kelly Oubre Jr.: Points O/U 19.5 | 6% |
| Max Christie: Points O/U 19.5 | 6% |
| Max Christie: Assists O/U 5.5 | 5% |
Markt-Kontext
Marktkonsens: 85% Chance für prognose: mavericks vs. pacers. Prognosemärkte bündeln echtes Kapital zu diesem Wahrscheinlichkeitssignal. In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for October 23 at 7:00PM ET: If the Mavericks win, the market will resolve to "Mavericks". If the Pacers win, the market will resolve to "Pacers…
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $269K.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Methodisch unterscheiden wir zwei Schichten: die Live-Wahrscheinlichkeit (Polymarket-Mid-Preis) und die Plattform-Attribute (Gebühren, KYC, Auszahlung, Settlement-Währung). Eine kanonische Wahrscheinlichkeit über die Zeile, die Anbieter-spezifischen Trade-offs in den Spalten — sauber, vergleichbar, ohne Marketing-Lärm.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Die Auflösung läuft on-chain. Polymarkets Vertragslogik trennt YES- und NO-Anteile als Conditional Tokens; bei Auflösung werden die richtigen Anteile zu 100¢ und die anderen zu 0¢. Die Outcome-Eingabe kommt vom UMA Optimistic Oracle, das mit einem Bond-System gegen falsche Auflösung absichert.
Sobald die Auflösung durch ist, hebt der Smart Contract alle gewinnenden Anteile zu USDC und schickt die Beträge an die Wallets der Inhaber. Das geschieht binnen Minuten der finalen Bestätigung — ohne Auszahlungsgebühren über die Polygon-Netzwerkkosten hinaus.
Häufige Fragen
- Wo kann ich diesen Markt am günstigsten handeln?
- Polymarket selbst ist global zugänglich, in DE/AT/CH allerdings geo-blockiert. Der einfachste Broker mit gleichem Orderbuch und 0 % Gebühr ist PolyGram. Kalshi nimmt bis zu 7 % pro Trade, Betfair Exchange 2-5 % Kommission auf Gewinne.
- Sind Prediction-Märkte in Deutschland legal?
- Prediction-Märkte befinden sich in Deutschland in einem rechtlichen Graubereich. Polymarket selbst ist in Deutschland geo-blockiert. Handeln Sie nur mit Kapital, dessen Verlust Sie verkraften können, und prüfen Sie die rechtliche Lage für Ihre Jurisdiktion.
- Wie funktioniert die Auflösung?
- Über das UMA Optimistic Oracle: ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, USDC-Auszahlung erfolgt automatisch.
- Wie lange dauert eine USDC-Einzahlung?
- Auf Polygon werden Einzahlungen nach 12 Bestätigungen gutgeschrieben — in der Regel unter 30 Sekunden. Withdrawals folgen demselben Pfad und sind binnen Minuten auf Ihrer Wallet.
- Wie verlässlich sind die angezeigten Quoten?
- Die YES/NO-Prozentsätze sind die Live-Mid-Preise des Polymarket-Orderbuchs. Auf Märkten mit hoher Liquidität bewegen sich diese Werte sekündlich; bei dünneren Märkten sehen Sie kurze Plateaus.
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