Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über PolyGram) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
79% | 21% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
79% | 21% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| O/U 209.5 | 79% |
| O/U 212.5 | 74% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 73% |
| O/U 215.5 | 68% |
| O/U 218.5 | 62% |
| Mikal Bridges: Points O/U 9.5 | 62% |
| Jayson Tatum: Assists O/U 5.5 | 60% |
| O/U 220.5 | 57% |
| O/U 221.5 | 56% |
| O/U 222.5 | 54% |
| Spread -1.5 | 53% |
| O/U 223.5 | 52% |
| OG Anunoby: Assists O/U 1.5 | 52% |
| Jayson Tatum: Assists O/U 4.5 | 52% |
| Team to Score First | 50% |
| Odd/Even Score | 50% |
| 1H Moneyline | 50% |
| Overtime? | 50% |
| Race to 10 | 50% |
| Race to 20 | 50% |
| Race to 30 | 50% |
| Jayson Tatum: Points O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Josh Hart: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Mikal Bridges: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| OG Anunoby: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| OG Anunoby: Assists O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Spread -2.5 | 49% |
| O/U 224.5 | 49% |
| Mikal Bridges: Assists O/U 2.5 | 49% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 48% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 48% |
| 1H O/U 115.5 | 48% |
| Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 14.5 | 48% |
| OG Anunoby: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 48% |
| Paul George: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 48% |
| O/U 225.5 | 46% |
| Derrick White: Points O/U 9.5 | 46% |
| Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 19.5 | 46% |
| Jayson Tatum: Points O/U 19.5 | 46% |
| OG Anunoby: Points O/U 9.5 | 46% |
| Knicks vs. Celtics | 45% |
| Payton Pritchard: Points O/U 9.5 | 45% |
| Jayson Tatum: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 45% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 45% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns: Rebounds O/U 17.5 | 45% |
| Jalen Brunson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 45% |
| O/U 226.5 | 44% |
| Jayson Tatum: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 43% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 43% |
| Paul George: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 43% |
| Spread -4.5 | 42% |
| Paul George: Points O/U 14.5 | 42% |
| Josh Hart: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 42% |
| Mikal Bridges: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 42% |
| Mikal Bridges: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 41% |
| Derrick White: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 41% |
| Spread -2.5 | 40% |
| O/U 228.5 | 40% |
| Jalen Brunson: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 40% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns: Points O/U 14.5 | 40% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | 40% |
| Spread -5.5 | 39% |
| OG Anunoby: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 39% |
| Jayson Tatum: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 39% |
| Payton Pritchard: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 39% |
| Paul George: Assists O/U 2.5 | 38% |
| Josh Hart: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 38% |
| Derrick White: Assists O/U 3.5 | 38% |
| Josh Hart: Points O/U 9.5 | 37% |
| Paul George: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 37% |
| OG Anunoby: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 37% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 36% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns: Assists O/U 7.5 | 36% |
| Jayson Tatum: Points O/U 24.5 | 35% |
| Jalen Brunson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 35% |
| O/U 231.5 | 34% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns: Points O/U 18.5 | 34% |
| Jayson Tatum: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 34% |
| Jalen Brunson: Assists O/U 5.5 | 34% |
| Jayson Tatum: Assists O/U 11.5 | 34% |
| Spread -7.5 | 33% |
| Derrick White: Points O/U 14.5 | 33% |
| OG Anunoby: Points O/U 14.5 | 33% |
| Payton Pritchard: Assists O/U 4.5 | 33% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns: Points O/U 19.5 | 32% |
| Jayson Tatum: Rebounds O/U 8.5 | 32% |
| Jayson Tatum: Points O/U 25.5 | 32% |
| Mikal Bridges: Points O/U 11.5 | 32% |
| Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 24.5 | 32% |
| Payton Pritchard: Points O/U 14.5 | 32% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns: Assists O/U 3.5 | 32% |
| Payton Pritchard: Assists O/U 3.5 | 32% |
| Spread -5.5 | 31% |
| Jayson Tatum: Points O/U 26.5 | 31% |
| Paul George: Points O/U 17.5 | 31% |
| Paul George: Assists O/U 3.5 | 31% |
| Derrick White: Assists O/U 4.5 | 31% |
| Josh Hart: Assists O/U 3.5 | 31% |
| Josh Hart: Assists O/U 4.5 | 31% |
| Jayson Tatum: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 31% |
| Paul George: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 31% |
| Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 25.5 | 30% |
| Jalen Brunson: Assists O/U 6.5 | 30% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns: Assists O/U 4.5 | 30% |
| OG Anunoby: Points O/U 16.5 | 30% |
| O/U 234.5 | 28% |
| Paul George: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 28% |
| Jayson Tatum: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 28% |
| Jayson Tatum: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | 28% |
| Derrick White: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 28% |
| Josh Hart: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 28% |
| Jayson Tatum: Assists O/U 6.5 | 28% |
| Derrick White: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 27% |
| Derrick White: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 27% |
| Jayson Tatum: Rebounds O/U 15.5 | 27% |
| Payton Pritchard: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 27% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns: Assists O/U 5.5 | 27% |
| Mikal Bridges: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 26% |
| Payton Pritchard: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 26% |
| Payton Pritchard: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 26% |
| Spread -10.5 | 25% |
| Jalen Brunson: Assists O/U 11.5 | 25% |
| Paul George: Assists O/U 4.5 | 25% |
| Mikal Bridges: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 25% |
| Paul George: Points O/U 19.5 | 24% |
| Paul George: Points O/U 29.5 | 24% |
| Jalen Brunson: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 24% |
| Josh Hart: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 24% |
| Spread -8.5 | 23% |
| O/U 237.5 | 23% |
| Jayson Tatum: Points O/U 39.5 | 23% |
| Paul George: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 23% |
| Jayson Tatum: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 22% |
| Derrick White: Assists O/U 5.5 | 22% |
| Mikal Bridges: Points O/U 14.5 | 21% |
| Paul George: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 21% |
| Jalen Brunson: Assists O/U 7.5 | 21% |
| Jayson Tatum: Points O/U 29.5 | 20% |
| Jayson Tatum: Assists O/U 7.5 | 20% |
| Spread -13.5 | 19% |
| Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 29.5 | 19% |
| OG Anunoby: Points O/U 19.5 | 19% |
| Derrick White: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 19% |
| Derrick White: Points O/U 19.5 | 18% |
| Josh Hart: Points O/U 14.5 | 18% |
| OG Anunoby: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 18% |
| Payton Pritchard: Points O/U 19.5 | 17% |
| Mikal Bridges: Assists O/U 3.5 | 17% |
| Payton Pritchard: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 17% |
| Spread -11.5 | 16% |
| Jayson Tatum: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 16% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 16% |
| Josh Hart: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 15% |
| Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 39.5 | 14% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns: Points O/U 24.5 | 14% |
| OG Anunoby: Points O/U 24.5 | 14% |
| Paul George: Points O/U 24.5 | 14% |
| Josh Hart: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 14% |
| Mikal Bridges: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 14% |
| OG Anunoby: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 14% |
| Paul George: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 14% |
| Spread -16.5 | 13% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns: Rebounds O/U 15.5 | 13% |
| Jalen Brunson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 13% |
| Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 34.5 | 12% |
| OG Anunoby: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 12% |
| Derrick White: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 12% |
| Jayson Tatum: Points O/U 34.5 | 11% |
| Derrick White: Assists O/U 7.5 | 11% |
| Jayson Tatum: Assists O/U 9.5 | 11% |
| Payton Pritchard: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 10% |
| Derrick White: Points O/U 24.5 | 9% |
| Payton Pritchard: Points O/U 24.5 | 9% |
| Jalen Brunson: Assists O/U 9.5 | 9% |
| OG Anunoby: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 9% |
| Josh Hart: Points O/U 19.5 | 8% |
| Mikal Bridges: Points O/U 19.5 | 8% |
| Jalen Brunson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 8% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns: Points O/U 29.5 | 7% |
| Josh Hart: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 7% |
| Jordan Walsh: Points O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| Jordan Walsh: Points O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Jordan Walsh: Points O/U 14.5 | 0% |
| Mitchell Robinson: Points O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| Mitchell Robinson: Points O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Mitchell Robinson: Points O/U 14.5 | 0% |
| Neemias Queta: Points O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| Neemias Queta: Points O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Neemias Queta: Points O/U 14.5 | 0% |
| Sam Hauser: Points O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| Sam Hauser: Points O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Sam Hauser: Points O/U 14.5 | 0% |
| Jordan Walsh: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| Jordan Walsh: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| Mitchell Robinson: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| Mitchell Robinson: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 0% |
| Mitchell Robinson: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Mitchell Robinson: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 0% |
| Neemias Queta: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| Neemias Queta: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 0% |
| Neemias Queta: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Neemias Queta: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 0% |
| Sam Hauser: Rebounds O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Sam Hauser: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| Sam Hauser: Assists O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Sam Hauser: Assists O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Jordan Walsh: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Jordan Walsh: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Sam Hauser: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Sam Hauser: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Sam Hauser: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Derrick White: Steals O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Derrick White: Steals O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Derrick White: Steals O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Jalen Brunson: Steals O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Jalen Brunson: Steals O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Markt-Kontext
Der Prognosemarkt für „Prognose: Knicks vs. Celtics" bewertet dieses Ergebnis derzeit mit 79% Ja-Wahrscheinlichkeit. In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for October 23 at 7:00PM ET: If the Knicks win, the market will resolve to "Knicks". If the Celtics win, the market will resolve to "Celtics". If the game is postpo…
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $76K.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Methodisch unterscheiden wir zwei Schichten: die Live-Wahrscheinlichkeit (Polymarket-Mid-Preis) und die Plattform-Attribute (Gebühren, KYC, Auszahlung, Settlement-Währung). Eine kanonische Wahrscheinlichkeit über die Zeile, die Anbieter-spezifischen Trade-offs in den Spalten — sauber, vergleichbar, ohne Marketing-Lärm.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Polymarket-basierte Märkte werden über das UMA Optimistic Oracle auf Polygon aufgelöst. Ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, und unangefochtene Vorschläge schließen die Auflösung ab. Auszahlungen erfolgen automatisch in USDC, sobald das Ergebnis final ist — keine Buchhalter, keine Verzögerung.
Kalshi-basierte Märkte werden in USD über die CFTC-regulierte Settlement-Engine ausgezahlt. Betfair Exchange zahlt in GBP/EUR aus, abzüglich Kommission. Manifold ist Spielgeld und zahlt keine echten Beträge aus.
Häufige Fragen
- Wo kann ich diesen Markt am günstigsten handeln?
- Polymarket selbst ist global zugänglich, in DE/AT/CH allerdings geo-blockiert. Der einfachste Broker mit gleichem Orderbuch und 0 % Gebühr ist PolyGram. Kalshi nimmt bis zu 7 % pro Trade, Betfair Exchange 2-5 % Kommission auf Gewinne.
- Sind Prediction-Märkte in Deutschland legal?
- Prediction-Märkte befinden sich in Deutschland in einem rechtlichen Graubereich. Polymarket selbst ist in Deutschland geo-blockiert. Handeln Sie nur mit Kapital, dessen Verlust Sie verkraften können, und prüfen Sie die rechtliche Lage für Ihre Jurisdiktion.
- Was ist der Unterschied zwischen YES- und NO-Anteilen?
- Ein YES-Anteil zahlt $1,00 bei Eintritt des Ereignisses, sonst $0. Ein NO-Anteil zahlt $1,00, wenn das Ereignis nicht eintritt. Der Marktpreis zwischen 0¢ und 100¢ ist die implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit.
- Welche Gebühren fallen bei Polymarket an?
- Direkt am Polymarket-Orderbuch keine Gebühren — die einzigen Kosten sind Polygon-Netzwerkgebühren (typischerweise unter $0,01 pro Transaktion). Off-chain Plattformen wie Kalshi oder Betfair verlangen 2-7 % Kommission.
- Brauche ich KYC für diesen Markt?
- Auf Polymarket direkt nicht. Über vermittelnde Broker wie PolyGram ist KYC erst ab $1.500 lebenslangem Trading-Volumen erforderlich — darunter handeln Sie pseudonym mit nur einer Wallet-Adresse.
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Jetzt „Prognose: Knicks vs. Celtics" auf PolyGram handeln
Live-Orderbuch, 0 % Gebühren, USDC-Auszahlung in Sekunden.
Live-Markt öffnen →