Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über PolyGram) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
96% | 4% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
96% | 4% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| O/U 202.5 | 96% |
| O/U 204.5 | 95% |
| O/U 206.5 | 94% |
| O/U 208.5 | 94% |
| O/U 210.5 | 93% |
| O/U 212.5 | 92% |
| O/U 214.5 | 88% |
| 76ers O/U 112.5 | 86% |
| O/U 216.5 | 85% |
| O/U 218.5 | 82% |
| Bucks O/U 100.5 | 81% |
| Spread -2.5 | 80% |
| O/U 220.5 | 79% |
| 1H O/U 107.5 | 77% |
| Spread -4.5 | 75% |
| 1Q O/U 48.5 | 75% |
| O/U 222.5 | 74% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 74% |
| 76ers O/U 116.5 | 74% |
| O/U 224.5 | 72% |
| 1H O/U 103.5 | 72% |
| 1Q O/U 50.5 | 71% |
| 1H O/U 109.5 | 70% |
| Bucks O/U 104.5 | 70% |
| Spread -6.5 | 69% |
| 1H O/U 111.5 | 69% |
| 76ers O/U 118.5 | 68% |
| O/U 226.5 | 67% |
| 1H O/U 105.5 | 67% |
| Spread -7.5 | 66% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 65% |
| Spread -8.5 | 64% |
| O/U 228.5 | 64% |
| Bucks O/U 106.5 | 64% |
| 1Q O/U 56.5 | 63% |
| 76ers O/U 120.5 | 62% |
| Spread -9.5 | 61% |
| O/U 230.5 | 60% |
| 1H O/U 113.5 | 60% |
| 76ers O/U 130.5 | 60% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 59% |
| 1Q O/U 54.5 | 59% |
| Spread -10.5 | 58% |
| Ryan Rollins: Assists O/U 3.5 | 58% |
| Bucks O/U 108.5 | 58% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 57% |
| O/U 232.5 | 56% |
| Kyle Kuzma: Points O/U 9.5 | 56% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 56% |
| 2Q O/U 55.5 | 56% |
| 76ers O/U 122.5 | 56% |
| Spread -11.5 | 55% |
| Tyler Herro: Points O/U 19.5 | 55% |
| 1H O/U 115.5 | 54% |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Assists O/U 3.5 | 53% |
| Bucks O/U 98.5 | 53% |
| Myles Turner: Points O/U 9.5 | 52% |
| Ryan Rollins: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 52% |
| Bucks O/U 110.5 | 52% |
| O/U 234.5 | 51% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 51% |
| Kyle Kuzma: Points O/U 4.5 | 51% |
| 1Q O/U 58.5 | 51% |
| Myles Turner: Points O/U 24.5 | 51% |
| Team to Score First | 50% |
| Odd/Even Score | 50% |
| Overtime? | 50% |
| Race to 10 | 50% |
| Race to 20 | 50% |
| Race to 30 | 50% |
| Spread -12.5 | 50% |
| Tyler Herro: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Myles Turner: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Tyler Herro: Points O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Kyle Kuzma: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Kyle Kuzma: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Myles Turner: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr.: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Jaylen Brown: Points O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Joel Embiid: Points O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Tyrese Maxey: Points O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Tyrese Maxey: Points O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Tyrese Maxey: Points O/U 39.5 | 50% |
| Jaylen Brown: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Joel Embiid: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Joel Embiid: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| VJ Edgecombe: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Tyrese Maxey: Assists O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Jaylen Brown: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Tyrese Maxey: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Jaylen Brown: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Jaylen Brown: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Jaylen Brown: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Ryan Rollins: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Ryan Rollins: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Ryan Rollins: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Tyrese Maxey: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Tyrese Maxey: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Tyrese Maxey: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| VJ Edgecombe: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| VJ Edgecombe: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| VJ Edgecombe: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Joel Embiid: Blocks O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Joel Embiid: Blocks O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Joel Embiid: Blocks O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Myles Turner: Blocks O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Myles Turner: Blocks O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Myles Turner: Blocks O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Points O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 57.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 58.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 52.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 54.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 56.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 60.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 62.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 64.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 53.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 55.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 57.5 | 50% |
| Bucks O/U 120.5 | 50% |
| Bucks 1H O/U 52.5 | 50% |
| Bucks 1H O/U 54.5 | 50% |
| Bucks 1H O/U 56.5 | 50% |
| Bucks 1H O/U 58.5 | 50% |
| 76ers 2H O/U 66.5 | 50% |
| Bucks 1H O/U 60.5 | 50% |
| 76ers 1H O/U 67.5 | 50% |
| Bucks 2H O/U 51.5 | 50% |
| Bucks 2H O/U 53.5 | 50% |
| Bucks 2H O/U 55.5 | 50% |
| Bucks 2H O/U 57.5 | 50% |
| Bucks 2H O/U 59.5 | 50% |
| 76ers 1H O/U 59.5 | 50% |
| 76ers 1H O/U 61.5 | 50% |
| 76ers 1H O/U 63.5 | 50% |
| 76ers 1H O/U 65.5 | 50% |
| 76ers 2H O/U 58.5 | 50% |
| 76ers 2H O/U 60.5 | 50% |
| 76ers 2H O/U 62.5 | 50% |
| 76ers 2H O/U 64.5 | 50% |
| Tyrese Maxey: Points O/U 24.5 | 49% |
| Tyler Herro: Points O/U 20.5 | 49% |
| Kyle Kuzma: Points O/U 10.5 | 49% |
| Kyle Kuzma: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 49% |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Points O/U 24.5 | 49% |
| Ryan Rollins: Assists O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| Tyler Herro: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 49% |
| Tyrese Maxey: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| Jaylen Brown: Assists O/U 3.5 | 49% |
| Joel Embiid: Assists O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| Joel Embiid: Assists O/U 9.5 | 49% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 49% |
| 76ers O/U 124.5 | 49% |
| Tyrese Maxey: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 48% |
| Tyler Herro: Points O/U 34.5 | 48% |
| Ryan Rollins: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 48% |
| Tyler Herro: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 48% |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Assists O/U 1.5 | 48% |
| Tyler Herro: Assists O/U 1.5 | 48% |
| Joel Embiid: Points O/U 14.5 | 48% |
| Joel Embiid: Points O/U 34.5 | 48% |
| Joel Embiid: Points O/U 39.5 | 48% |
| Jaylen Brown: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 48% |
| Jaylen Brown: Assists O/U 1.5 | 48% |
| Joel Embiid: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 48% |
| Tyler Herro: Points O/U 39.5 | 48% |
| 1Q O/U 52.5 | 48% |
| 76ers O/U 136.5 | 48% |
| Spread -13.5 | 47% |
| O/U 236.5 | 47% |
| Jaylen Brown: Points O/U 14.5 | 47% |
| Joel Embiid: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 47% |
| Jaylen Brown: Assists O/U 9.5 | 47% |
| VJ Edgecombe: Assists O/U 1.5 | 47% |
| 1H O/U 117.5 | 47% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 47% |
| Tyler Herro: 3-Pointers Made O/U 6.5 | 46% |
| VJ Edgecombe: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 45% |
| Tyrese Maxey: Assists O/U 3.5 | 45% |
| Joel Embiid: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 45% |
| Ryan Rollins: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 45% |
| Bucks O/U 112.5 | 45% |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 44% |
| Ryan Rollins: Assists O/U 9.5 | 44% |
| Ryan Rollins: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 44% |
| Jaylen Brown: Points O/U 34.5 | 44% |
| Jaylen Brown: Points O/U 39.5 | 44% |
| VJ Edgecombe: Points O/U 24.5 | 44% |
| Joel Embiid: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | 44% |
| Joel Embiid: Rebounds O/U 15.5 | 44% |
| Myles Turner: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 44% |
| Ryan Rollins: 3-Pointers Made O/U 5.5 | 44% |
| VJ Edgecombe: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 44% |
| 76ers O/U 114.5 | 44% |
| Spread -14.5 | 43% |
| Ryan Rollins: Points O/U 9.5 | 43% |
| Tyler Herro: Points O/U 14.5 | 43% |
| Jaylen Brown: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 43% |
| Tyrese Maxey: Assists O/U 11.5 | 43% |
| Tyrese Maxey: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 43% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 43% |
| Bucks O/U 102.5 | 43% |
| O/U 238.5 | 42% |
| Ryan Rollins: Points O/U 14.5 | 42% |
| Tyrese Maxey: Assists O/U 5.5 | 42% |
| Myles Turner: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 41% |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Points O/U 9.5 | 41% |
| Myles Turner: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 41% |
| Tyler Herro: Assists O/U 9.5 | 41% |
| Tyler Herro: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 41% |
| Jaylen Brown: Points O/U 19.5 | 41% |
| Spread -15.5 | 40% |
| 1H O/U 119.5 | 40% |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 40% |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Points O/U 14.5 | 40% |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 40% |
| Kyle Kuzma: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 40% |
| Tyrese Maxey: 3-Pointers Made O/U 6.5 | 40% |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Assists O/U 9.5 | 40% |
| 1Q O/U 60.5 | 40% |
| Joel Embiid: Points O/U 19.5 | 39% |
| Tyrese Maxey: Points O/U 19.5 | 39% |
| VJ Edgecombe: Points O/U 9.5 | 39% |
| Bucks O/U 114.5 | 39% |
| Spread -16.5 | 38% |
| O/U 240.5 | 38% |
| Tyler Herro: Assists O/U 3.5 | 38% |
| Jaylen Brown: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 38% |
| Joel Embiid: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 38% |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr.: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 37% |
| Kyle Kuzma: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 37% |
| Kyle Kuzma: Points O/U 24.5 | 37% |
| Joel Embiid: Assists O/U 3.5 | 37% |
| 1H O/U 121.5 | 37% |
| 2Q O/U 59.5 | 37% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 37% |
| Spread -17.5 | 36% |
| Jaylen Brown: Points O/U 24.5 | 36% |
| O/U 242.5 | 35% |
| VJ Edgecombe: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 35% |
| Ryan Rollins: Points O/U 29.5 | 35% |
| 1H O/U 123.5 | 35% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 35% |
| Bucks O/U 116.5 | 35% |
| 1H Spread -11.5 | 34% |
| Spread -18.5 | 33% |
| 2Q Spread -5.5 | 33% |
| Ryan Rollins: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 32% |
| 2Q O/U 61.5 | 32% |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Points O/U 13.5 | 31% |
| Ryan Rollins: Assists O/U 4.5 | 31% |
| Ryan Rollins: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 31% |
| Tyrese Maxey: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 31% |
| Myles Turner: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 30% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 30% |
| O/U 244.5 | 29% |
| Tyler Herro: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 29% |
| 1Q O/U 62.5 | 29% |
| Tyler Herro: Assists O/U 4.5 | 28% |
| Joel Embiid: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 28% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 28% |
| Bucks O/U 118.5 | 28% |
| Spread -20.5 | 27% |
| Joel Embiid: Points O/U 24.5 | 27% |
| Jaylen Brown: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 27% |
| VJ Edgecombe: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 27% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 27% |
| 2Q O/U 63.5 | 27% |
| O/U 246.5 | 26% |
| Joel Embiid: Assists O/U 4.5 | 26% |
| Jaylen Brown: Assists O/U 4.5 | 26% |
| VJ Edgecombe: Points O/U 14.5 | 26% |
| Tyrese Maxey: Assists O/U 7.5 | 26% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 25% |
| O/U 248.5 | 24% |
| Tyrese Maxey: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 24% |
| Spread -22.5 | 23% |
| 1H Moneyline | 23% |
| 1H Spread -15.5 | 23% |
| Tyrese Maxey: Assists O/U 6.5 | 23% |
| 1Q Spread -8.5 | 23% |
| Joel Embiid: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 22% |
| Ryan Rollins: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 21% |
| Jaylen Brown: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 21% |
| VJ Edgecombe: Assists O/U 3.5 | 21% |
| 1H O/U 125.5 | 21% |
| O/U 250.5 | 20% |
| Tyler Herro: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 20% |
| 1H O/U 127.5 | 20% |
| Spread -24.5 | 19% |
| Tyler Herro: Points O/U 24.5 | 19% |
| Kyle Kuzma: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 19% |
| Ryan Rollins: Assists O/U 5.5 | 19% |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr.: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 19% |
| Kyle Kuzma: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 19% |
| Tyler Herro: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 19% |
| VJ Edgecombe: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 19% |
| 1H O/U 129.5 | 19% |
| Tyrese Maxey: Points O/U 29.5 | 18% |
| 1H O/U 131.5 | 18% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 18% |
| Bucks O/U 122.5 | 18% |
| 76ers O/U 134.5 | 18% |
| Kyle Kuzma: Points O/U 14.5 | 17% |
| Tyler Herro: Assists O/U 5.5 | 17% |
| VJ Edgecombe: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 17% |
| Myles Turner: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 17% |
| Bucks vs. 76ers | 16% |
| Spread -26.5 | 16% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 16% |
| 1H O/U 133.5 | 16% |
| 76ers O/U 132.5 | 16% |
| Spread -1.5 | 14% |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Assists O/U 5.5 | 14% |
| Joel Embiid: Points O/U 29.5 | 14% |
| Joel Embiid: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 14% |
| Jaylen Brown: Assists O/U 5.5 | 14% |
| Joel Embiid: Assists O/U 5.5 | 14% |
| Jaylen Brown: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 14% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 14% |
| 1H O/U 135.5 | 14% |
| Myles Turner: Points O/U 14.5 | 13% |
| Ryan Rollins: Points O/U 19.5 | 13% |
| Spread -28.5 | 12% |
| Jaylen Brown: Points O/U 29.5 | 12% |
| Tyrese Maxey: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 12% |
| Tyrese Maxey: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 12% |
| 1H Spread -19.5 | 12% |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Points O/U 19.5 | 11% |
| Tyler Herro: Points O/U 29.5 | 11% |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 11% |
| Myles Turner: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 11% |
| Jaylen Brown: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 11% |
| Tyler Herro: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 11% |
| Tyler Herro: 3-Pointers Made O/U 5.5 | 11% |
| Tyrese Maxey: 3-Pointers Made O/U 5.5 | 11% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 11% |
| Spread -3.5 | 10% |
| Kyle Kuzma: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 10% |
| Kyle Kuzma: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 10% |
| VJ Edgecombe: Points O/U 19.5 | 10% |
| VJ Edgecombe: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 10% |
| Tyrese Maxey: Assists O/U 9.5 | 10% |
| Myles Turner: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 10% |
| Ryan Rollins: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 10% |
| Spread -30.5 | 9% |
| Spread -5.5 | 9% |
| Myles Turner: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 9% |
| Ryan Rollins: Assists O/U 7.5 | 9% |
| VJ Edgecombe: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 9% |
| Joel Embiid: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 9% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 9% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 9% |
| Tyrese Maxey: Points O/U 34.5 | 8% |
| Jaylen Brown: Assists O/U 7.5 | 8% |
| Jaylen Brown: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 8% |
| VJ Edgecombe: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 8% |
| 1H Spread -23.5 | 8% |
| Spread -32.5 | 7% |
| Spread -7.5 | 7% |
| Kyle Kuzma: Points O/U 19.5 | 7% |
| Tyler Herro: Assists O/U 7.5 | 7% |
| Joel Embiid: Assists O/U 7.5 | 7% |
| VJ Edgecombe: Assists O/U 5.5 | 7% |
| Ryan Rollins: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 7% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 7% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 7% |
| 1H Spread -25.5 | 7% |
| Spread -34.5 | 6% |
| Ryan Rollins: Points O/U 24.5 | 6% |
| Myles Turner: Points O/U 19.5 | 6% |
| Tyrese Maxey: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 6% |
| Ryan Rollins: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 6% |
| Tyler Herro: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 6% |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Assists O/U 7.5 | 6% |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr.: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 6% |
| Jaylen Brown: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 6% |
| Joel Embiid: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 6% |
| Kyle Kuzma: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 6% |
| Myles Turner: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 6% |
| VJ Edgecombe: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 6% |
| Spread -9.5 | 5% |
| Spread -38.5 | 4% |
| Spread -11.5 | 4% |
| Spread -40.5 | 3% |
| Spread -13.5 | 3% |
| Spread -15.5 | 2% |
Markt-Kontext
Basierend auf echtem Kapital beträgt die aktuelle Marktwahrscheinlichkeit für prognose: bucks vs. 76ers 96%. In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for October 24 at 7:30PM ET: If the Bucks win, the market will resolve to "Bucks". If the 76ers win, the market will resolve to "76ers". If the …
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $150K.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Methodisch unterscheiden wir zwei Schichten: die Live-Wahrscheinlichkeit (Polymarket-Mid-Preis) und die Plattform-Attribute (Gebühren, KYC, Auszahlung, Settlement-Währung). Eine kanonische Wahrscheinlichkeit über die Zeile, die Anbieter-spezifischen Trade-offs in den Spalten — sauber, vergleichbar, ohne Marketing-Lärm.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Die Auflösung läuft on-chain. Polymarkets Vertragslogik trennt YES- und NO-Anteile als Conditional Tokens; bei Auflösung werden die richtigen Anteile zu 100¢ und die anderen zu 0¢. Die Outcome-Eingabe kommt vom UMA Optimistic Oracle, das mit einem Bond-System gegen falsche Auflösung absichert.
Sobald die Auflösung durch ist, hebt der Smart Contract alle gewinnenden Anteile zu USDC und schickt die Beträge an die Wallets der Inhaber. Das geschieht binnen Minuten der finalen Bestätigung — ohne Auszahlungsgebühren über die Polygon-Netzwerkkosten hinaus.
Häufige Fragen
- Wo kann ich diesen Markt am günstigsten handeln?
- Polymarket selbst ist global zugänglich, in DE/AT/CH allerdings geo-blockiert. Der einfachste Broker mit gleichem Orderbuch und 0 % Gebühr ist PolyGram. Kalshi nimmt bis zu 7 % pro Trade, Betfair Exchange 2-5 % Kommission auf Gewinne.
- Wie funktioniert die Auflösung?
- Über das UMA Optimistic Oracle: ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, USDC-Auszahlung erfolgt automatisch.
- Welche Gebühren fallen bei Polymarket an?
- Direkt am Polymarket-Orderbuch keine Gebühren — die einzigen Kosten sind Polygon-Netzwerkgebühren (typischerweise unter $0,01 pro Transaktion). Off-chain Plattformen wie Kalshi oder Betfair verlangen 2-7 % Kommission.
- Wie lange dauert eine USDC-Einzahlung?
- Auf Polygon werden Einzahlungen nach 12 Bestätigungen gutgeschrieben — in der Regel unter 30 Sekunden. Withdrawals folgen demselben Pfad und sind binnen Minuten auf Ihrer Wallet.
- Wie verlässlich sind die angezeigten Quoten?
- Die YES/NO-Prozentsätze sind die Live-Mid-Preise des Polymarket-Orderbuchs. Auf Märkten mit hoher Liquidität bewegen sich diese Werte sekündlich; bei dünneren Märkten sehen Sie kurze Plateaus.
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