Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über PolyGram) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
92% | 8% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
92% | 8% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| O/U 23.5 | 92% |
| O/U 24.5 | 92% |
| Steelers O/U 10.5 | 89% |
| O/U 25.5 | 88% |
| 4Q O/U 5.5 | 88% |
| Steelers O/U 12.5 | 88% |
| O/U 26.5 | 86% |
| O/U 27.5 | 84% |
| O/U 28.5 | 82% |
| O/U 29.5 | 80% |
| Buccaneers O/U 10.5 | 80% |
| Buccaneers O/U 12.5 | 79% |
| Steelers O/U 13.5 | 78% |
| O/U 30.5 | 75% |
| 4Q O/U 6.5 | 75% |
| O/U 31.5 | 72% |
| Buccaneers O/U 13.5 | 72% |
| 1Q O/U 5.5 | 71% |
| 3Q O/U 5.5 | 71% |
| O/U 32.5 | 69% |
| Steelers O/U 16.5 | 68% |
| O/U 33.5 | 67% |
| 2Q O/U 6.5 | 65% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 65% |
| O/U 34.5 | 63% |
| 1H O/U 16.5 | 63% |
| 1Q O/U 6.5 | 62% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 62% |
| O/U 35.5 | 61% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 61% |
| 2Q O/U 5.5 | 60% |
| Buccaneers O/U 16.5 | 60% |
| O/U 36.5 | 57% |
| Steelers vs. Buccaneers | 56% |
| Steelers O/U 19.5 | 56% |
| 1H Moneyline | 56% |
| Steelers 1H O/U 6.5 | 55% |
| O/U 37.5 | 54% |
| Spread -1.5 | 54% |
| 2H O/U 16.5 | 54% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 54% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 52% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 52% |
| Buccaneers 1H O/U 10.5 | 52% |
| Spread -2.5 | 51% |
| O/U 38.5 | 51% |
| Steelers 2H O/U 6.5 | 51% |
| Buccaneers 2H O/U 6.5 | 51% |
| Buccaneers 2H O/U 10.5 | 51% |
| Buccaneers 2H O/U 12.5 | 51% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Buccaneers 1H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Steelers 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Steelers 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Steelers 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Buccaneers 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Steelers by 25+ | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Steelers by 19-24 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Steelers by 13-18 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Steelers by 7-12 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Buccaneers by 7-13 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Buccaneers by 14-20 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Buccaneers by 21+ | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 1Q | 50% |
| Steelers Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Buccaneers Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Steelers Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 49% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 49% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 49% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 49% |
| Steelers O/U 20.5 | 49% |
| Buccaneers 1H O/U 6.5 | 49% |
| Steelers 2H O/U 16.5 | 49% |
| Steelers 2H O/U 17.5 | 49% |
| Steelers 2H O/U 19.5 | 49% |
| Steelers 2H O/U 20.5 | 49% |
| Buccaneers 2H O/U 16.5 | 49% |
| Buccaneers 2H O/U 17.5 | 49% |
| Buccaneers 2H O/U 19.5 | 49% |
| Buccaneers 2H O/U 20.5 | 49% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 2Q | 49% |
| Steelers vs. Buccaneers: Total Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 49% |
| Buccaneers Total Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| O/U 39.5 | 48% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 48% |
| Steelers 1H O/U 12.5 | 48% |
| Buccaneers 1H O/U 13.5 | 48% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 4Q | 48% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 47% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 47% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 47% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 47% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 47% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 47% |
| Buccaneers O/U 19.5 | 47% |
| Buccaneers 1H O/U 17.5 | 47% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 3Q | 47% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 46% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 46% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 46% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 46% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 46% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 46% |
| Buccaneers 1H O/U 16.5 | 46% |
| Buccaneers 1H O/U 19.5 | 46% |
| Exact Margin: Steelers by 1-6 | 46% |
| Exact Margin: Buccaneers by 1-6 | 46% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 45% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 45% |
| O/U 40.5 | 45% |
| Steelers 1H O/U 10.5 | 45% |
| Buccaneers 1H O/U 20.5 | 45% |
| Safety? | 45% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 44% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 44% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 44% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 44% |
| Spread -0.5 | 43% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 43% |
| Steelers 1H O/U 13.5 | 43% |
| Spread -1.5 | 42% |
| Spread -3.5 | 42% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 42% |
| Exact Margin: Tie | 42% |
| O/U 41.5 | 41% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 40% |
| 2Q O/U 14.5 | 40% |
| Buccaneers O/U 20.5 | 40% |
| Steelers 1H O/U 17.5 | 40% |
| Spread -2.5 | 39% |
| Spread -4.5 | 39% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 39% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 39% |
| Steelers 1H O/U 16.5 | 39% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 38% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 38% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 38% |
| O/U 42.5 | 38% |
| 1H O/U 22.5 | 38% |
| Steelers 1H O/U 20.5 | 38% |
| Spread -5.5 | 37% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 37% |
| Steelers 1H O/U 19.5 | 37% |
| O/U 43.5 | 36% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 36% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 36% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 36% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 36% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 35% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 35% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 35% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 35% |
| Steelers O/U 23.5 | 35% |
| Spread -6.5 | 33% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 33% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 33% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 33% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 32% |
| O/U 45.5 | 31% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 31% |
| O/U 44.5 | 31% |
| 3Q O/U 14.5 | 31% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 30% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 30% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 30% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 29% |
| Spread -3.5 | 28% |
| Spread -4.5 | 28% |
| Spread -7.5 | 28% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 28% |
| O/U 46.5 | 28% |
| 4Q O/U 14.5 | 28% |
| Spread -5.5 | 27% |
| Buccaneers O/U 23.5 | 26% |
| O/U 47.5 | 25% |
| Spread -8.5 | 25% |
| Spread -9.5 | 25% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 25% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 25% |
| 1H O/U 25.5 | 25% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 25% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 25% |
| Steelers O/U 26.5 | 25% |
| Spread -6.5 | 24% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 24% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 24% |
| O/U 48.5 | 23% |
| Spread -10.5 | 22% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 22% |
| O/U 49.5 | 21% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 21% |
| Spread -7.5 | 19% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 19% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 19% |
| 1Q O/U 14.5 | 18% |
| O/U 51.5 | 17% |
| Spread -13.5 | 17% |
| Spread -8.5 | 17% |
| O/U 50.5 | 17% |
| 1H O/U 28.5 | 17% |
| Spread -9.5 | 16% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 16% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 16% |
| Spread -14.5 | 14% |
| Spread -10.5 | 14% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 14% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 14% |
| O/U 52.5 | 14% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 14% |
| Steelers O/U 27.5 | 14% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 13% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 13% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 13% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 13% |
| Buccaneers O/U 26.5 | 13% |
| O/U 53.5 | 12% |
| Spread -16.5 | 12% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 12% |
| O/U 54.5 | 12% |
| O/U 55.5 | 11% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 11% |
| Spread -17.5 | 10% |
| Spread -13.5 | 10% |
| Steelers O/U 30.5 | 10% |
| Buccaneers O/U 27.5 | 10% |
| Buccaneers O/U 34.5 | 10% |
| Spread -14.5 | 9% |
| Steelers O/U 34.5 | 9% |
| O/U 57.5 | 8% |
| Spread -19.5 | 8% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 8% |
| O/U 56.5 | 8% |
| O/U 58.5 | 8% |
| O/U 63.5 | 7% |
| Spread -20.5 | 7% |
| Spread -21.5 | 7% |
| O/U 62.5 | 7% |
| Buccaneers O/U 30.5 | 7% |
| O/U 59.5 | 6% |
| Spread -16.5 | 6% |
| O/U 60.5 | 6% |
| O/U 61.5 | 5% |
| Spread -19.5 | 5% |
| Spread -21.5 | 4% |
| Spread -17.5 | 4% |
| Spread -20.5 | 4% |
| O/U 64.5 | 4% |
Markt-Kontext
Live-Daten von Polymarket zeigen 92% Ja-Wahrscheinlichkeit für Prognose: Steelers vs. Buccaneers. In the upcoming NFL football game between Steelers and Buccaneers, scheduled for October 18 at 1:00PM ET: This market will resolve to "Steelers" if Steelers win the game. This market will resolve to "…
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $148K.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Diese Seite ist als Vergleichs-Snapshot konzipiert: ein Live-Kurs (Polymarket), vier Referenz-Plattformen mit ihren Schlüssel-Eigenschaften, und ein durchgehender Pfad zur Ausführung — alle Trade-Buttons routen zu PolyGram, das den Polymarket-Orderbuch direkt spiegelt.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Polymarket-basierte Märkte werden über das UMA Optimistic Oracle auf Polygon aufgelöst. Ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, und unangefochtene Vorschläge schließen die Auflösung ab. Auszahlungen erfolgen automatisch in USDC, sobald das Ergebnis final ist — keine Buchhalter, keine Verzögerung.
Kalshi-basierte Märkte werden in USD über die CFTC-regulierte Settlement-Engine ausgezahlt. Betfair Exchange zahlt in GBP/EUR aus, abzüglich Kommission. Manifold ist Spielgeld und zahlt keine echten Beträge aus.
Häufige Fragen
- Wo kann ich diesen Markt am günstigsten handeln?
- Polymarket selbst ist global zugänglich, in DE/AT/CH allerdings geo-blockiert. Der einfachste Broker mit gleichem Orderbuch und 0 % Gebühr ist PolyGram. Kalshi nimmt bis zu 7 % pro Trade, Betfair Exchange 2-5 % Kommission auf Gewinne.
- Wie funktioniert die Auflösung?
- Über das UMA Optimistic Oracle: ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, USDC-Auszahlung erfolgt automatisch.
- Was ist der Unterschied zwischen YES- und NO-Anteilen?
- Ein YES-Anteil zahlt $1,00 bei Eintritt des Ereignisses, sonst $0. Ein NO-Anteil zahlt $1,00, wenn das Ereignis nicht eintritt. Der Marktpreis zwischen 0¢ und 100¢ ist die implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit.
- Welche Gebühren fallen bei Polymarket an?
- Direkt am Polymarket-Orderbuch keine Gebühren — die einzigen Kosten sind Polygon-Netzwerkgebühren (typischerweise unter $0,01 pro Transaktion). Off-chain Plattformen wie Kalshi oder Betfair verlangen 2-7 % Kommission.
- Brauche ich KYC für diesen Markt?
- Auf Polymarket direkt nicht. Über vermittelnde Broker wie PolyGram ist KYC erst ab $1.500 lebenslangem Trading-Volumen erforderlich — darunter handeln Sie pseudonym mit nur einer Wallet-Adresse.
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