Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über PolyGram) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
94% | 6% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
94% | 6% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| O/U 24.5 | 94% |
| O/U 26.5 | 94% |
| Panthers O/U 10.5 | 93% |
| O/U 28.5 | 91% |
| Panthers O/U 12.5 | 91% |
| Buccaneers O/U 10.5 | 90% |
| Panthers O/U 13.5 | 90% |
| Buccaneers O/U 12.5 | 89% |
| O/U 30.5 | 87% |
| O/U 32.5 | 85% |
| Panthers O/U 16.5 | 85% |
| 2Q O/U 6.5 | 83% |
| 4Q O/U 6.5 | 83% |
| Buccaneers O/U 13.5 | 80% |
| O/U 34.5 | 79% |
| 3Q O/U 5.5 | 78% |
| 1H O/U 16.5 | 77% |
| O/U 36.5 | 75% |
| 1Q O/U 5.5 | 75% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 75% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 73% |
| O/U 38.5 | 70% |
| Buccaneers O/U 16.5 | 70% |
| Panthers O/U 19.5 | 70% |
| 1Q O/U 6.5 | 66% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 65% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 65% |
| Panthers 1H O/U 6.5 | 64% |
| O/U 40.5 | 63% |
| 1H O/U 19.5 | 63% |
| Panthers O/U 20.5 | 63% |
| Buccaneers 1H O/U 6.5 | 63% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 61% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 61% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 61% |
| O/U 42.5 | 57% |
| Buccaneers O/U 19.5 | 57% |
| 2H O/U 16.5 | 56% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 56% |
| Spread -1.5 | 55% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 55% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 54% |
| Spread -2.5 | 53% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 53% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 52% |
| Buccaneers O/U 20.5 | 52% |
| Panthers O/U 23.5 | 52% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 51% |
| O/U 44.5 | 51% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 51% |
| 2Q O/U 5.5 | 51% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Buccaneers 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Buccaneers 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Buccaneers 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Buccaneers 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Panthers 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Panthers 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Panthers 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Panthers 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Buccaneers by 25+ | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Buccaneers by 19-24 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Buccaneers by 13-18 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Buccaneers by 7-12 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Panthers by 7-13 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Panthers by 14-20 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Panthers by 21+ | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 2Q | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 3Q | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 4Q | 50% |
| Buccaneers Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Panthers Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Panthers Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 49% |
| 1H O/U 22.5 | 49% |
| Panthers 1H O/U 12.5 | 49% |
| Buccaneers 2H O/U 16.5 | 49% |
| Buccaneers 2H O/U 17.5 | 49% |
| Buccaneers 2H O/U 19.5 | 49% |
| Buccaneers 2H O/U 20.5 | 49% |
| Panthers 2H O/U 16.5 | 49% |
| Panthers 2H O/U 17.5 | 49% |
| Panthers 2H O/U 19.5 | 49% |
| Panthers 2H O/U 20.5 | 49% |
| Exact Margin: Panthers by 1-6 | 49% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 48% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 48% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 48% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 48% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 48% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 48% |
| Panthers 1H O/U 10.5 | 48% |
| Safety? | 48% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 48% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 48% |
| Buccaneers Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 48% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 47% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 47% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 47% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 47% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 47% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 47% |
| Exact Margin: Tie | 47% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 46% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 46% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 46% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 46% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 46% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 46% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 45% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 45% |
| O/U 46.5 | 45% |
| Spread -3.5 | 44% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 44% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 44% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 44% |
| Exact Margin: Buccaneers by 1-6 | 44% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 1Q | 44% |
| Buccaneers vs. Panthers: Total Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 44% |
| 1H Moneyline | 44% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 44% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 43% |
| Buccaneers vs. Panthers | 42% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 42% |
| 1Q O/U 14.5 | 42% |
| Buccaneers 1H O/U 10.5 | 42% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 41% |
| Buccaneers 1H O/U 12.5 | 41% |
| Spread -1.5 | 40% |
| Spread -4.5 | 40% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 40% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 39% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 39% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 39% |
| O/U 48.5 | 39% |
| 2Q O/U 14.5 | 39% |
| Buccaneers O/U 23.5 | 39% |
| Panthers O/U 26.5 | 39% |
| Buccaneers 1H O/U 13.5 | 39% |
| Spread -5.5 | 38% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 37% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 37% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 37% |
| Spread -2.5 | 36% |
| Spread -6.5 | 36% |
| Panthers 1H O/U 13.5 | 36% |
| O/U 50.5 | 35% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 34% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 34% |
| 1H O/U 25.5 | 34% |
| Buccaneers 1H O/U 16.5 | 34% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 33% |
| Panthers O/U 27.5 | 33% |
| Buccaneers 1H O/U 17.5 | 32% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 31% |
| Spread -3.5 | 30% |
| Spread -7.5 | 30% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 30% |
| O/U 52.5 | 30% |
| Panthers 1H O/U 16.5 | 30% |
| Spread -8.5 | 29% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 28% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 28% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 28% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 28% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 28% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 28% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 28% |
| Panthers 1H O/U 17.5 | 28% |
| Panthers 1H O/U 19.5 | 28% |
| Panthers 1H O/U 20.5 | 28% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 27% |
| Buccaneers O/U 26.5 | 27% |
| Buccaneers 1H O/U 19.5 | 27% |
| Buccaneers 1H O/U 20.5 | 27% |
| Spread -4.5 | 26% |
| Spread -9.5 | 26% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 26% |
| 4Q O/U 14.5 | 26% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 25% |
| Spread -5.5 | 24% |
| O/U 54.5 | 24% |
| 1H O/U 28.5 | 24% |
| Spread -10.5 | 23% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 23% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 23% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 23% |
| Panthers O/U 30.5 | 23% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 22% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 22% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 22% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 22% |
| Buccaneers O/U 27.5 | 22% |
| Spread -6.5 | 21% |
| Spread -13.5 | 19% |
| O/U 56.5 | 19% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 19% |
| Spread -7.5 | 17% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 17% |
| Spread -8.5 | 16% |
| Spread -14.5 | 16% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 16% |
| O/U 58.5 | 16% |
| 3Q O/U 14.5 | 16% |
| Spread -9.5 | 14% |
| Spread -16.5 | 14% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 13% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 13% |
| O/U 60.5 | 13% |
| Spread -10.5 | 12% |
| Spread -17.5 | 12% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 12% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 12% |
| Buccaneers O/U 30.5 | 12% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 11% |
| Buccaneers O/U 34.5 | 11% |
| O/U 64.5 | 10% |
| Spread -13.5 | 9% |
| Spread -19.5 | 9% |
| Spread -20.5 | 9% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 9% |
| O/U 62.5 | 9% |
| Spread -14.5 | 8% |
| Spread -16.5 | 8% |
| Spread -17.5 | 8% |
| Spread -19.5 | 8% |
| Spread -20.5 | 8% |
| Spread -21.5 | 8% |
| Spread -21.5 | 8% |
| Panthers O/U 34.5 | 8% |
Markt-Kontext
Prognose: Buccaneers vs. Panthers — aktuelle Marktwahrscheinlichkeit: 94%. In the upcoming NFL football game between Buccaneers and Panthers, scheduled for October 25 at 1:00PM ET: This market will resolve to "Buccaneers" if Buccaneers win the game. This market will resolve …
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $199K.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Methodisch unterscheiden wir zwei Schichten: die Live-Wahrscheinlichkeit (Polymarket-Mid-Preis) und die Plattform-Attribute (Gebühren, KYC, Auszahlung, Settlement-Währung). Eine kanonische Wahrscheinlichkeit über die Zeile, die Anbieter-spezifischen Trade-offs in den Spalten — sauber, vergleichbar, ohne Marketing-Lärm.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Die Auflösung läuft on-chain. Polymarkets Vertragslogik trennt YES- und NO-Anteile als Conditional Tokens; bei Auflösung werden die richtigen Anteile zu 100¢ und die anderen zu 0¢. Die Outcome-Eingabe kommt vom UMA Optimistic Oracle, das mit einem Bond-System gegen falsche Auflösung absichert.
Sobald die Auflösung durch ist, hebt der Smart Contract alle gewinnenden Anteile zu USDC und schickt die Beträge an die Wallets der Inhaber. Das geschieht binnen Minuten der finalen Bestätigung — ohne Auszahlungsgebühren über die Polygon-Netzwerkkosten hinaus.
Häufige Fragen
- Sind Prediction-Märkte in Deutschland legal?
- Prediction-Märkte befinden sich in Deutschland in einem rechtlichen Graubereich. Polymarket selbst ist in Deutschland geo-blockiert. Handeln Sie nur mit Kapital, dessen Verlust Sie verkraften können, und prüfen Sie die rechtliche Lage für Ihre Jurisdiktion.
- Was ist der Unterschied zwischen YES- und NO-Anteilen?
- Ein YES-Anteil zahlt $1,00 bei Eintritt des Ereignisses, sonst $0. Ein NO-Anteil zahlt $1,00, wenn das Ereignis nicht eintritt. Der Marktpreis zwischen 0¢ und 100¢ ist die implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit.
- Welche Gebühren fallen bei Polymarket an?
- Direkt am Polymarket-Orderbuch keine Gebühren — die einzigen Kosten sind Polygon-Netzwerkgebühren (typischerweise unter $0,01 pro Transaktion). Off-chain Plattformen wie Kalshi oder Betfair verlangen 2-7 % Kommission.
- Wie lange dauert eine USDC-Einzahlung?
- Auf Polygon werden Einzahlungen nach 12 Bestätigungen gutgeschrieben — in der Regel unter 30 Sekunden. Withdrawals folgen demselben Pfad und sind binnen Minuten auf Ihrer Wallet.
- Wie verlässlich sind die angezeigten Quoten?
- Die YES/NO-Prozentsätze sind die Live-Mid-Preise des Polymarket-Orderbuchs. Auf Märkten mit hoher Liquidität bewegen sich diese Werte sekündlich; bei dünneren Märkten sehen Sie kurze Plateaus.
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