Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über PolyGram) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
95% | 5% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
95% | 5% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| O/U 24.5 | 95% |
| Chargers O/U 10.5 | 95% |
| O/U 26.5 | 92% |
| O/U 28.5 | 91% |
| O/U 30.5 | 86% |
| O/U 32.5 | 83% |
| O/U 34.5 | 78% |
| Raiders O/U 10.5 | 78% |
| Raiders O/U 12.5 | 77% |
| Chargers O/U 12.5 | 77% |
| Chargers O/U 19.5 | 77% |
| 2Q O/U 5.5 | 76% |
| 4Q O/U 5.5 | 76% |
| Chargers O/U 13.5 | 76% |
| Chargers 1H O/U 6.5 | 76% |
| 2Q O/U 6.5 | 75% |
| Raiders O/U 13.5 | 75% |
| 1H O/U 16.5 | 74% |
| Chargers O/U 16.5 | 74% |
| O/U 36.5 | 72% |
| 4Q O/U 6.5 | 71% |
| Spread -1.5 | 70% |
| Chargers 2H O/U 6.5 | 70% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 69% |
| Chargers O/U 20.5 | 69% |
| Spread -2.5 | 68% |
| 3Q O/U 5.5 | 67% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 67% |
| 1Q O/U 5.5 | 66% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 66% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 66% |
| O/U 38.5 | 65% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 65% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 4Q | 64% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 63% |
| 1H O/U 19.5 | 62% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 62% |
| Raiders 2H O/U 6.5 | 62% |
| O/U 40.5 | 61% |
| Spread -3.5 | 61% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 61% |
| 1Q O/U 6.5 | 61% |
| Chargers 1H O/U 12.5 | 60% |
| Raiders O/U 16.5 | 59% |
| Chargers O/U 23.5 | 59% |
| O/U 41.5 | 57% |
| Spread -4.5 | 57% |
| Chargers 1H O/U 10.5 | 57% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 2Q | 57% |
| Raiders Total Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 57% |
| Spread -5.5 | 56% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 56% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 56% |
| Chargers Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 56% |
| O/U 42.5 | 55% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 54% |
| Raiders 1H O/U 6.5 | 54% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 53% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 53% |
| Spread -6.5 | 52% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 52% |
| Chargers 2H O/U 10.5 | 52% |
| O/U 43.5 | 51% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 51% |
| 2H O/U 16.5 | 51% |
| Chargers 2H O/U 12.5 | 51% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Raiders O/U 34.5 | 50% |
| Chargers O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| Team to Record Longest FG | 50% |
| Raiders Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Chargers Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 49% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 49% |
| Chargers 1H O/U 13.5 | 49% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 48% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 48% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 48% |
| 1H O/U 22.5 | 48% |
| Chargers 2H O/U 13.5 | 48% |
| O/U 44.5 | 47% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 46% |
| Spread -7.5 | 45% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 45% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 45% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 45% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 45% |
| Raiders O/U 19.5 | 45% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 44% |
| Spread -8.5 | 43% |
| O/U 45.5 | 43% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 43% |
| Raiders 2H O/U 10.5 | 43% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 42% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 42% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 42% |
| 2Q O/U 14.5 | 42% |
| Raiders 1H O/U 10.5 | 42% |
| Spread -9.5 | 41% |
| O/U 46.5 | 41% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 41% |
| Raiders 1H O/U 12.5 | 41% |
| Raiders 2H O/U 12.5 | 41% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 40% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 3Q | 40% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 39% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 39% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 39% |
| 4Q O/U 14.5 | 39% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 1Q | 39% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 38% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 38% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 38% |
| Chargers O/U 27.5 | 38% |
| Chargers 1H O/U 16.5 | 38% |
| Spread -10.5 | 37% |
| O/U 47.5 | 37% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 37% |
| Raiders O/U 20.5 | 37% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 36% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 36% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 36% |
| Raiders vs. Chargers: Total Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 36% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 36% |
| O/U 48.5 | 35% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 35% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 35% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 35% |
| Chargers 2H O/U 16.5 | 35% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 34% |
| 1H O/U 25.5 | 34% |
| Raiders 2H O/U 13.5 | 34% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 33% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 33% |
| Chargers 1H O/U 17.5 | 33% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 32% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 31% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 31% |
| Raiders 1H O/U 13.5 | 31% |
| 1H Moneyline | 31% |
| Spread -13.5 | 30% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 30% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 30% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 30% |
| O/U 50.5 | 29% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 29% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 28% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 28% |
| Raiders vs. Chargers | 27% |
| Spread -14.5 | 27% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 27% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 27% |
| Raiders O/U 26.5 | 27% |
| Chargers O/U 30.5 | 27% |
| Chargers 1H O/U 19.5 | 27% |
| Chargers 2H O/U 17.5 | 27% |
| Raiders O/U 23.5 | 26% |
| Raiders O/U 27.5 | 26% |
| Chargers O/U 34.5 | 26% |
| Raiders 2H O/U 16.5 | 26% |
| Chargers 2H O/U 19.5 | 26% |
| Spread -1.5 | 25% |
| Spread -16.5 | 25% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 25% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 25% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 25% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 25% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 25% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 25% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 25% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 25% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 25% |
| 3Q O/U 14.5 | 25% |
| Chargers 1H O/U 20.5 | 25% |
| Raiders 2H O/U 17.5 | 25% |
| Chargers 2H O/U 20.5 | 25% |
| Spread -2.5 | 24% |
| Spread -16.5 | 24% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 24% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 24% |
| Raiders O/U 30.5 | 24% |
| Raiders 1H O/U 17.5 | 24% |
| Raiders 2H O/U 19.5 | 24% |
| Raiders 2H O/U 20.5 | 24% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 23% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 23% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 23% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 23% |
| 1Q O/U 14.5 | 23% |
| Exact Margin: Raiders by 25+ | 23% |
| Exact Margin: Raiders by 19-24 | 23% |
| Exact Margin: Raiders by 13-18 | 23% |
| Safety? | 23% |
| O/U 52.5 | 22% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 22% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 22% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 22% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 22% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 22% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 21% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 21% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 21% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 21% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 21% |
| 1H O/U 28.5 | 21% |
| Raiders 1H O/U 19.5 | 21% |
| Exact Margin: Tie | 21% |
| Exact Margin: Chargers by 1-6 | 21% |
| Spread -3.5 | 20% |
| Spread -17.5 | 20% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 20% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 20% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 20% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 20% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 19% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 19% |
| Raiders 1H O/U 20.5 | 19% |
| O/U 54.5 | 18% |
| Spread -19.5 | 18% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 18% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 18% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 18% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 18% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 18% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 18% |
| O/U 56.5 | 17% |
| 2H Moneyline | 17% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 17% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 17% |
| Exact Margin: Chargers by 7-13 | 17% |
| Spread -4.5 | 16% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 16% |
| Exact Margin: Raiders by 1-6 | 16% |
| Exact Margin: Chargers by 14-20 | 16% |
| Exact Margin: Chargers by 21+ | 16% |
| Spread -5.5 | 15% |
| Spread -6.5 | 14% |
| Spread -20.5 | 14% |
| Spread -21.5 | 14% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 14% |
| O/U 58.5 | 12% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 12% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 11% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 11% |
| Spread -7.5 | 10% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 10% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 10% |
| Raiders 1H O/U 16.5 | 10% |
| O/U 60.5 | 9% |
| Exact Margin: Raiders by 7-12 | 9% |
| O/U 62.5 | 8% |
| Spread -8.5 | 8% |
| Spread -9.5 | 8% |
| Spread -19.5 | 8% |
| Spread -21.5 | 8% |
| Spread -10.5 | 7% |
| Spread -17.5 | 7% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 6% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 6% |
| O/U 64.5 | 5% |
| Spread -13.5 | 5% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 5% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 5% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 5% |
| Spread -14.5 | 4% |
| Spread -20.5 | 3% |
Markt-Kontext
Der Prognosemarkt für „Prognose: Raiders vs. Chargers" bewertet dieses Ergebnis derzeit mit 95% Ja-Wahrscheinlichkeit. In the upcoming NFL game, scheduled for September 20 at 4:05PM ET: If Raiders wins, the market will resolve to "Raiders". If Chargers wins, the market will resolve to "Chargers". If the game is postpo…
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $1.0M.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Methodisch unterscheiden wir zwei Schichten: die Live-Wahrscheinlichkeit (Polymarket-Mid-Preis) und die Plattform-Attribute (Gebühren, KYC, Auszahlung, Settlement-Währung). Eine kanonische Wahrscheinlichkeit über die Zeile, die Anbieter-spezifischen Trade-offs in den Spalten — sauber, vergleichbar, ohne Marketing-Lärm.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Die Auflösung läuft on-chain. Polymarkets Vertragslogik trennt YES- und NO-Anteile als Conditional Tokens; bei Auflösung werden die richtigen Anteile zu 100¢ und die anderen zu 0¢. Die Outcome-Eingabe kommt vom UMA Optimistic Oracle, das mit einem Bond-System gegen falsche Auflösung absichert.
Sobald die Auflösung durch ist, hebt der Smart Contract alle gewinnenden Anteile zu USDC und schickt die Beträge an die Wallets der Inhaber. Das geschieht binnen Minuten der finalen Bestätigung — ohne Auszahlungsgebühren über die Polygon-Netzwerkkosten hinaus.
Häufige Fragen
- Sind Prediction-Märkte in Deutschland legal?
- Prediction-Märkte befinden sich in Deutschland in einem rechtlichen Graubereich. Polymarket selbst ist in Deutschland geo-blockiert. Handeln Sie nur mit Kapital, dessen Verlust Sie verkraften können, und prüfen Sie die rechtliche Lage für Ihre Jurisdiktion.
- Wie funktioniert die Auflösung?
- Über das UMA Optimistic Oracle: ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, USDC-Auszahlung erfolgt automatisch.
- Was ist der Unterschied zwischen YES- und NO-Anteilen?
- Ein YES-Anteil zahlt $1,00 bei Eintritt des Ereignisses, sonst $0. Ein NO-Anteil zahlt $1,00, wenn das Ereignis nicht eintritt. Der Marktpreis zwischen 0¢ und 100¢ ist die implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit.
- Brauche ich KYC für diesen Markt?
- Auf Polymarket direkt nicht. Über vermittelnde Broker wie PolyGram ist KYC erst ab $1.500 lebenslangem Trading-Volumen erforderlich — darunter handeln Sie pseudonym mit nur einer Wallet-Adresse.
- Wie verlässlich sind die angezeigten Quoten?
- Die YES/NO-Prozentsätze sind die Live-Mid-Preise des Polymarket-Orderbuchs. Auf Märkten mit hoher Liquidität bewegen sich diese Werte sekündlich; bei dünneren Märkten sehen Sie kurze Plateaus.
%22%2F%3E%3Cpath%20d%3D%22M%206%2066%20A%2026%2026%200%200%201%2058%2066%22%20fill%3D%22%23E6B98D%22%20opacity%3D%220.9%22%2F%3E%3Ccircle%20cx%3D%2232%22%20cy%3D%2226%22%20r%3D%2222%22%20fill%3D%22%23F5CBA7%22%2F%3E%3Crect%20x%3D%2210%22%20y%3D%224%22%20width%3D%2244%22%20height%3D%2214%22%20rx%3D%227%22%20fill%3D%22%2322c55e%22%20opacity%3D%220.9%22%2F%3E%3Crect%20x%3D%228%22%20%20y%3D%2218%22%20width%3D%228%22%20%20height%3D%2218%22%20rx%3D%224%22%20fill%3D%22%2322c55e%22%20opacity%3D%220.7%22%2F%3E%3Crect%20x%3D%2248%22%20y%3D%2218%22%20width%3D%228%22%20%20height%3D%2218%22%20rx%3D%224%22%20fill%3D%22%2322c55e%22%20opacity%3D%220.7%22%2F%3E%3C%2Fsvg%3E){kind=small}
und%22%2F%3E%3Cpath%20d%3D%22M%206%2066%20A%2026%2026%200%200%201%2058%2066%22%20fill%3D%22%23E6B98D%22%20opacity%3D%220.9%22%2F%3E%3Ccircle%20cx%3D%2232%22%20cy%3D%2226%22%20r%3D%2222%22%20fill%3D%22%23F5CBA7%22%2F%3E%3Cpath%20d%3D%22M%2010%2026%20A%2022%2028%200%200%201%2054%2026%22%20fill%3D%22%2322c55e%22%20opacity%3D%220.9%22%2F%3E%3C%2Fsvg%3E){kind=small}
Jetzt „Prognose: Raiders vs. Chargers" auf PolyGram handeln
Live-Orderbuch, 0 % Gebühren, USDC-Auszahlung in Sekunden.
Live-Markt öffnen →