Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über PolyGram) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
96% | 4% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
96% | 4% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| O/U 26.5 | 96% |
| O/U 24.5 | 95% |
| Rams O/U 10.5 | 95% |
| O/U 28.5 | 94% |
| O/U 30.5 | 93% |
| Rams O/U 12.5 | 93% |
| Rams O/U 13.5 | 93% |
| O/U 32.5 | 91% |
| Raiders O/U 10.5 | 90% |
| Raiders O/U 12.5 | 90% |
| 2Q O/U 6.5 | 88% |
| 3Q O/U 5.5 | 88% |
| Rams O/U 16.5 | 88% |
| O/U 34.5 | 87% |
| 4Q O/U 6.5 | 86% |
| Rams 1H O/U 6.5 | 86% |
| O/U 36.5 | 84% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 83% |
| Raiders O/U 13.5 | 83% |
| 2H O/U 16.5 | 82% |
| 1H O/U 19.5 | 81% |
| 1H O/U 16.5 | 80% |
| Rams O/U 19.5 | 80% |
| 1Q O/U 5.5 | 79% |
| O/U 38.5 | 78% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 77% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 74% |
| Raiders O/U 16.5 | 74% |
| Raiders 1H O/U 6.5 | 74% |
| Raiders 2H O/U 6.5 | 74% |
| O/U 40.5 | 73% |
| Rams O/U 20.5 | 73% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 72% |
| 1Q O/U 6.5 | 72% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 67% |
| O/U 42.5 | 67% |
| Rams vs. Raiders | 65% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 65% |
| O/U 44.5 | 63% |
| Raiders O/U 19.5 | 63% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 62% |
| Rams O/U 23.5 | 62% |
| Spread -1.5 | 61% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 61% |
| Rams 2H O/U 10.5 | 61% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 60% |
| Rams 1H O/U 10.5 | 60% |
| 1H Moneyline | 60% |
| Spread -2.5 | 59% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 59% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 58% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 57% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 57% |
| O/U 46.5 | 56% |
| 1H O/U 22.5 | 56% |
| Raiders O/U 20.5 | 56% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 56% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 56% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 55% |
| Rams 1H O/U 12.5 | 55% |
| Rams 2H O/U 6.5 | 55% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 53% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 53% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 52% |
| Rams 2H O/U 12.5 | 52% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 51% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 51% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 51% |
| O/U 48.5 | 51% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 51% |
| Rams O/U 26.5 | 51% |
| Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Raiders 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Raiders 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Raiders 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Raiders 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Raiders 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Rams by 25+ | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Rams by 19-24 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Rams by 13-18 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Rams by 7-12 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Raiders by 7-13 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Raiders by 14-20 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Raiders by 21+ | 50% |
| Rams Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Raiders Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 49% |
| Rams 1H O/U 13.5 | 49% |
| Rams 2H O/U 13.5 | 49% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 48% |
| Raiders 1H O/U 12.5 | 48% |
| Raiders 2H O/U 10.5 | 48% |
| Safety? | 48% |
| Rams Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 48% |
| Spread -4.5 | 46% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 46% |
| 2Q O/U 14.5 | 46% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 2Q | 45% |
| Spread -5.5 | 44% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 44% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 44% |
| O/U 50.5 | 44% |
| Rams O/U 27.5 | 44% |
| Raiders O/U 23.5 | 44% |
| Raiders 1H O/U 10.5 | 44% |
| Rams 2H O/U 19.5 | 44% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 43% |
| 4Q O/U 14.5 | 43% |
| Rams 2H O/U 20.5 | 43% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 4Q | 43% |
| 1H O/U 25.5 | 42% |
| Spread -6.5 | 41% |
| O/U 52.5 | 40% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 39% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 39% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 39% |
| Raiders 1H O/U 17.5 | 39% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 1Q | 39% |
| Raiders 2H O/U 13.5 | 38% |
| Raiders Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 37% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 36% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 36% |
| Spread -7.5 | 35% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 35% |
| Rams 1H O/U 16.5 | 35% |
| Spread -1.5 | 34% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 34% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 34% |
| O/U 54.5 | 34% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 3Q | 34% |
| Spread -8.5 | 33% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 33% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 33% |
| Raiders 1H O/U 13.5 | 33% |
| Rams 2H O/U 16.5 | 33% |
| Spread -2.5 | 32% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 32% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 32% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 32% |
| Rams O/U 30.5 | 32% |
| Spread -9.5 | 31% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 31% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 31% |
| 1H O/U 28.5 | 31% |
| Raiders O/U 26.5 | 31% |
| Rams Total Touchdowns: O/U 3.5 | 31% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 30% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 29% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 29% |
| Spread -10.5 | 28% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 28% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 28% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 28% |
| O/U 56.5 | 28% |
| Spread -3.5 | 26% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 26% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 26% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 26% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 26% |
| Raiders O/U 27.5 | 26% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 25% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 25% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 25% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 24% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 24% |
| O/U 58.5 | 24% |
| Rams 1H O/U 17.5 | 24% |
| Rams 2H O/U 17.5 | 24% |
| Spread -13.5 | 23% |
| Spread -4.5 | 23% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 23% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 22% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 22% |
| Rams 1H O/U 19.5 | 22% |
| Spread -5.5 | 21% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 21% |
| Raiders 1H O/U 16.5 | 21% |
| Rams vs. Raiders: Total Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 21% |
| O/U 60.5 | 20% |
| 3Q O/U 14.5 | 20% |
| Spread -14.5 | 19% |
| Spread -6.5 | 19% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 19% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 19% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 19% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 18% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 18% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 18% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 18% |
| Raiders O/U 30.5 | 18% |
| Spread -20.5 | 17% |
| Spread -21.5 | 17% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 17% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 17% |
| Rams 1H O/U 20.5 | 17% |
| Spread -16.5 | 16% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 16% |
| Exact Margin: Rams by 1-6 | 16% |
| O/U 62.5 | 15% |
| 1Q O/U 14.5 | 15% |
| Spread -17.5 | 14% |
| Spread -7.5 | 14% |
| Spread -8.5 | 14% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 14% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 14% |
| Spread -9.5 | 13% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 13% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 13% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 13% |
| O/U 64.5 | 13% |
| Exact Margin: Raiders by 1-6 | 13% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 12% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 12% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 12% |
| Rams O/U 34.5 | 12% |
| Raiders 1H O/U 19.5 | 12% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 11% |
| Spread -19.5 | 10% |
| Spread -20.5 | 10% |
| Spread -10.5 | 10% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 10% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 10% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 10% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 10% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 9% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 9% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 9% |
| Raiders O/U 34.5 | 9% |
| Raiders 1H O/U 20.5 | 9% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 8% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 8% |
| Spread -21.5 | 7% |
| Spread -14.5 | 7% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 7% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 7% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 7% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 7% |
| Spread -13.5 | 6% |
| Spread -16.5 | 6% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 6% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 6% |
| Spread -17.5 | 5% |
| Spread -19.5 | 5% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 5% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 5% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 4% |
| Exact Margin: Tie | 2% |
Markt-Kontext
Händler auf dezentralen Prognosemärkten geben 96% Wahrscheinlichkeit für Prognose: Rams vs. Raiders. In the upcoming NFL football game between Rams and Raiders, scheduled for October 25 at 4:25PM ET: This market will resolve to "Rams" if Rams win the game. This market will resolve to "Raiders" if Rai…
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $277K.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Diese Seite ist als Vergleichs-Snapshot konzipiert: ein Live-Kurs (Polymarket), vier Referenz-Plattformen mit ihren Schlüssel-Eigenschaften, und ein durchgehender Pfad zur Ausführung — alle Trade-Buttons routen zu PolyGram, das den Polymarket-Orderbuch direkt spiegelt.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Die Auflösung läuft on-chain. Polymarkets Vertragslogik trennt YES- und NO-Anteile als Conditional Tokens; bei Auflösung werden die richtigen Anteile zu 100¢ und die anderen zu 0¢. Die Outcome-Eingabe kommt vom UMA Optimistic Oracle, das mit einem Bond-System gegen falsche Auflösung absichert.
Sobald die Auflösung durch ist, hebt der Smart Contract alle gewinnenden Anteile zu USDC und schickt die Beträge an die Wallets der Inhaber. Das geschieht binnen Minuten der finalen Bestätigung — ohne Auszahlungsgebühren über die Polygon-Netzwerkkosten hinaus.
Häufige Fragen
- Sind Prediction-Märkte in Deutschland legal?
- Prediction-Märkte befinden sich in Deutschland in einem rechtlichen Graubereich. Polymarket selbst ist in Deutschland geo-blockiert. Handeln Sie nur mit Kapital, dessen Verlust Sie verkraften können, und prüfen Sie die rechtliche Lage für Ihre Jurisdiktion.
- Was ist der Unterschied zwischen YES- und NO-Anteilen?
- Ein YES-Anteil zahlt $1,00 bei Eintritt des Ereignisses, sonst $0. Ein NO-Anteil zahlt $1,00, wenn das Ereignis nicht eintritt. Der Marktpreis zwischen 0¢ und 100¢ ist die implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit.
- Welche Gebühren fallen bei Polymarket an?
- Direkt am Polymarket-Orderbuch keine Gebühren — die einzigen Kosten sind Polygon-Netzwerkgebühren (typischerweise unter $0,01 pro Transaktion). Off-chain Plattformen wie Kalshi oder Betfair verlangen 2-7 % Kommission.
- Wie lange dauert eine USDC-Einzahlung?
- Auf Polygon werden Einzahlungen nach 12 Bestätigungen gutgeschrieben — in der Regel unter 30 Sekunden. Withdrawals folgen demselben Pfad und sind binnen Minuten auf Ihrer Wallet.
- Brauche ich KYC für diesen Markt?
- Auf Polymarket direkt nicht. Über vermittelnde Broker wie PolyGram ist KYC erst ab $1.500 lebenslangem Trading-Volumen erforderlich — darunter handeln Sie pseudonym mit nur einer Wallet-Adresse.
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