Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über PolyGram) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
90% | 10% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
90% | 10% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| O/U 24.5 | 90% |
| 2Q O/U 5.5 | 89% |
| 4Q O/U 5.5 | 88% |
| Packers O/U 10.5 | 87% |
| Packers O/U 12.5 | 86% |
| O/U 26.5 | 85% |
| O/U 27.5 | 84% |
| Packers O/U 13.5 | 83% |
| 3Q O/U 5.5 | 82% |
| O/U 28.5 | 81% |
| O/U 29.5 | 80% |
| Buccaneers O/U 10.5 | 79% |
| 2Q O/U 6.5 | 78% |
| Buccaneers O/U 12.5 | 76% |
| O/U 30.5 | 75% |
| 4Q O/U 6.5 | 75% |
| Packers 1H O/U 6.5 | 74% |
| O/U 31.5 | 73% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 71% |
| 2H O/U 16.5 | 70% |
| 1Q O/U 5.5 | 70% |
| Packers O/U 16.5 | 70% |
| O/U 32.5 | 69% |
| Buccaneers O/U 13.5 | 68% |
| O/U 33.5 | 66% |
| Buccaneers 1H O/U 6.5 | 65% |
| O/U 34.5 | 64% |
| 1H O/U 16.5 | 64% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 64% |
| O/U 35.5 | 62% |
| 1Q O/U 6.5 | 62% |
| Packers vs. Buccaneers | 61% |
| Spread -0.5 | 61% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 61% |
| Packers O/U 19.5 | 59% |
| Spread -1.5 | 57% |
| O/U 36.5 | 57% |
| Buccaneers O/U 16.5 | 56% |
| 1H Moneyline | 56% |
| Spread -2.5 | 55% |
| O/U 37.5 | 55% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 4Q | 55% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 54% |
| O/U 38.5 | 52% |
| 1H O/U 19.5 | 51% |
| Packers O/U 20.5 | 51% |
| Packers 2H O/U 6.5 | 51% |
| Buccaneers 2H O/U 6.5 | 51% |
| Buccaneers 2H O/U 10.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 51% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Packers 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Packers 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Packers 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Packers 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Buccaneers 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Buccaneers 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Packers by 25+ | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Packers by 19-24 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Packers by 13-18 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Packers by 7-12 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Buccaneers by 7-13 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Buccaneers by 14-20 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Buccaneers by 21+ | 50% |
| Team to Record Longest FG | 50% |
| Packers Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Buccaneers Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Packers vs. Buccaneers: Total Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Packers Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Buccaneers Total Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 49% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 49% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 49% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 49% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 49% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 49% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 49% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 49% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 49% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 49% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 49% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 49% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 49% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 49% |
| Packers 2H O/U 13.5 | 49% |
| Packers 2H O/U 19.5 | 49% |
| Packers 2H O/U 20.5 | 49% |
| Buccaneers 2H O/U 13.5 | 49% |
| Buccaneers 2H O/U 16.5 | 49% |
| Buccaneers 2H O/U 19.5 | 49% |
| Buccaneers 2H O/U 20.5 | 49% |
| O/U 39.5 | 48% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 48% |
| Buccaneers 1H O/U 10.5 | 47% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 46% |
| Spread -3.5 | 45% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 45% |
| Buccaneers 1H O/U 12.5 | 45% |
| Exact Margin: Packers by 1-6 | 45% |
| O/U 40.5 | 44% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 44% |
| Buccaneers O/U 19.5 | 44% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 43% |
| Exact Margin: Buccaneers by 1-6 | 43% |
| Spread -4.5 | 42% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 42% |
| O/U 41.5 | 41% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 41% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 41% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 41% |
| Packers 1H O/U 10.5 | 41% |
| Exact Margin: Tie | 41% |
| Spread -5.5 | 40% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 40% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 40% |
| Packers O/U 23.5 | 39% |
| Spread -6.5 | 38% |
| Spread -1.5 | 38% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 38% |
| O/U 42.5 | 38% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 38% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 37% |
| 1H O/U 22.5 | 37% |
| Buccaneers O/U 20.5 | 37% |
| Packers 1H O/U 12.5 | 37% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 2Q | 37% |
| O/U 43.5 | 35% |
| Spread -2.5 | 35% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 35% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 35% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 35% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 35% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 35% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 35% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 34% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 34% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 3Q | 34% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 33% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 33% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 33% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 1Q | 33% |
| O/U 44.5 | 32% |
| Spread -7.5 | 32% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 32% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 32% |
| Packers 1H O/U 13.5 | 32% |
| O/U 45.5 | 31% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 31% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 31% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 31% |
| 2Q O/U 14.5 | 31% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 30% |
| Spread -8.5 | 29% |
| O/U 46.5 | 28% |
| Spread -9.5 | 28% |
| Spread -3.5 | 28% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 28% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 28% |
| 4Q O/U 14.5 | 28% |
| Packers O/U 26.5 | 28% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 27% |
| Buccaneers O/U 23.5 | 27% |
| Spread -4.5 | 26% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 26% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 26% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 26% |
| O/U 47.5 | 25% |
| Spread -10.5 | 25% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 25% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 25% |
| Buccaneers 1H O/U 13.5 | 25% |
| O/U 48.5 | 24% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 24% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 24% |
| 1H O/U 25.5 | 24% |
| Spread -5.5 | 23% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 23% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 23% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 23% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 23% |
| Packers O/U 27.5 | 23% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 22% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 22% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 22% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 22% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 22% |
| O/U 49.5 | 21% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 21% |
| Packers 1H O/U 16.5 | 21% |
| Spread -13.5 | 20% |
| Spread -6.5 | 20% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 20% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 20% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 20% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 19% |
| O/U 50.5 | 18% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 18% |
| O/U 51.5 | 17% |
| Spread -14.5 | 17% |
| Spread -7.5 | 17% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 17% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 17% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 17% |
| Packers 1H O/U 17.5 | 17% |
| Spread -8.5 | 16% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 16% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 16% |
| 1H O/U 28.5 | 16% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 15% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 15% |
| O/U 52.5 | 15% |
| O/U 53.5 | 14% |
| Spread -16.5 | 14% |
| Spread -9.5 | 14% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 14% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 14% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 14% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 14% |
| Buccaneers 1H O/U 16.5 | 14% |
| Spread -10.5 | 13% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 13% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 13% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 13% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 13% |
| Buccaneers O/U 26.5 | 13% |
| O/U 55.5 | 12% |
| Spread -17.5 | 12% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 12% |
| O/U 54.5 | 12% |
| Packers 1H O/U 19.5 | 12% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 11% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 11% |
| O/U 56.5 | 11% |
| 3Q O/U 14.5 | 11% |
| Packers O/U 30.5 | 11% |
| Buccaneers O/U 27.5 | 11% |
| O/U 57.5 | 10% |
| Spread -19.5 | 10% |
| Spread -13.5 | 10% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 10% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 10% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 10% |
| Buccaneers 1H O/U 17.5 | 10% |
| Spread -20.5 | 9% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 9% |
| 1Q O/U 14.5 | 9% |
| Buccaneers O/U 30.5 | 9% |
| Safety? | 9% |
| O/U 59.5 | 8% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 8% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 8% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 8% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 8% |
| O/U 58.5 | 8% |
| Packers O/U 34.5 | 8% |
| Buccaneers O/U 34.5 | 8% |
| Packers 1H O/U 20.5 | 8% |
| Spread -14.5 | 7% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 7% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 7% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 7% |
| O/U 60.5 | 7% |
| Buccaneers 1H O/U 19.5 | 7% |
| Spread -21.5 | 6% |
| Spread -16.5 | 6% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 6% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 6% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 6% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 6% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 6% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 6% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 6% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 6% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 6% |
| Buccaneers 1H O/U 20.5 | 6% |
| O/U 61.5 | 5% |
| Spread -17.5 | 5% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 5% |
| O/U 63.5 | 4% |
| Spread -19.5 | 4% |
| Spread -20.5 | 4% |
| Spread -21.5 | 4% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 4% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 4% |
| O/U 62.5 | 4% |
| O/U 64.5 | 4% |
| O/U 65.5 | 3% |
| O/U 67.5 | 2% |
Markt-Kontext
Basierend auf echtem Kapital beträgt die aktuelle Marktwahrscheinlichkeit für prognose: packers vs. buccaneers 90%. In the upcoming NFL game, scheduled for October 4 at 1:00PM ET: If Packers wins, the market will resolve to "Packers". If Buccaneers wins, the market will resolve to "Buccaneers". …
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $1.1M.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Diese Übersicht vergleicht Prognose: Packers vs. Buccaneers über fünf Plattformen. Die Live-Wahrscheinlichkeit ist der Polymarket-Mid-Preis aus dem Polygon-Orderbuch; die Vergleichs-Spalten zeigen Gebührenstruktur, KYC-Schwellen, Settlement-Währung und Zahlungswege jeder Plattform. Alle CTAs leiten zu PolyGram, das den Polymarket-Orderbuch zu 0 % Gebühren spiegelt.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Polymarket-basierte Märkte werden über das UMA Optimistic Oracle auf Polygon aufgelöst. Ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, und unangefochtene Vorschläge schließen die Auflösung ab. Auszahlungen erfolgen automatisch in USDC, sobald das Ergebnis final ist — keine Buchhalter, keine Verzögerung.
Kalshi-basierte Märkte werden in USD über die CFTC-regulierte Settlement-Engine ausgezahlt. Betfair Exchange zahlt in GBP/EUR aus, abzüglich Kommission. Manifold ist Spielgeld und zahlt keine echten Beträge aus.
Häufige Fragen
- Wo kann ich diesen Markt am günstigsten handeln?
- Polymarket selbst ist global zugänglich, in DE/AT/CH allerdings geo-blockiert. Der einfachste Broker mit gleichem Orderbuch und 0 % Gebühr ist PolyGram. Kalshi nimmt bis zu 7 % pro Trade, Betfair Exchange 2-5 % Kommission auf Gewinne.
- Wie funktioniert die Auflösung?
- Über das UMA Optimistic Oracle: ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, USDC-Auszahlung erfolgt automatisch.
- Was ist der Unterschied zwischen YES- und NO-Anteilen?
- Ein YES-Anteil zahlt $1,00 bei Eintritt des Ereignisses, sonst $0. Ein NO-Anteil zahlt $1,00, wenn das Ereignis nicht eintritt. Der Marktpreis zwischen 0¢ und 100¢ ist die implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit.
- Wie lange dauert eine USDC-Einzahlung?
- Auf Polygon werden Einzahlungen nach 12 Bestätigungen gutgeschrieben — in der Regel unter 30 Sekunden. Withdrawals folgen demselben Pfad und sind binnen Minuten auf Ihrer Wallet.
- Wie verlässlich sind die angezeigten Quoten?
- Die YES/NO-Prozentsätze sind die Live-Mid-Preise des Polymarket-Orderbuchs. Auf Märkten mit hoher Liquidität bewegen sich diese Werte sekündlich; bei dünneren Märkten sehen Sie kurze Plateaus.
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