Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über PolyGram) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
79% | 21% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
79% | 21% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| O/U 221.5 | 79% |
| 1H O/U 113.5 | 75% |
| O/U 224.5 | 74% |
| O/U 227.5 | 69% |
| O/U 230.5 | 63% |
| 1H O/U 117.5 | 62% |
| Spread -1.5 | 60% |
| Spread -2.5 | 57% |
| O/U 232.5 | 57% |
| O/U 233.5 | 56% |
| O/U 234.5 | 56% |
| Spread -3.5 | 55% |
| O/U 235.5 | 54% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 54% |
| Draymond Green: Assists O/U 5.5 | 54% |
| Spread -4.5 | 51% |
| O/U 236.5 | 51% |
| Team to Score First | 50% |
| Odd/Even Score | 50% |
| Overtime? | 50% |
| Race to 10 | 50% |
| Race to 20 | 50% |
| Race to 30 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 121.5 | 50% |
| Gui Santos: Points O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Gui Santos: Points O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Jaylen Wells: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Stephen Curry: Points O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Ty Jerome: Points O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Zach Edey: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Cameron Boozer: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Draymond Green: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Gui Santos: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Stephen Curry: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Zach Edey: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Draymond Green: Assists O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Cameron Boozer: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Gui Santos: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Gui Santos: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Gui Santos: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Jerami Grant: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Gui Santos: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Gui Santos: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Gui Santos: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Stephen Curry: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Stephen Curry: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Stephen Curry: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Ty Jerome: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Ty Jerome: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Ty Jerome: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Al Horford: Blocks O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Al Horford: Blocks O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Al Horford: Blocks O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Zach Edey: Blocks O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Zach Edey: Blocks O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Zach Edey: Blocks O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 58.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 61.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 64.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 59.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 57.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 58.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 55.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 51.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 52.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 54.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 57.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 58.5 | 50% |
| Warriors O/U 108.5 | 50% |
| Grizzlies O/U 106.5 | 50% |
| Warriors O/U 109.5 | 50% |
| Warriors O/U 110.5 | 50% |
| Grizzlies O/U 107.5 | 50% |
| Warriors O/U 113.5 | 50% |
| Warriors 1H O/U 57.5 | 50% |
| Grizzlies 1H O/U 55.5 | 50% |
| Warriors O/U 114.5 | 50% |
| Warriors O/U 115.5 | 50% |
| Warriors 1H O/U 59.5 | 50% |
| Grizzlies O/U 111.5 | 50% |
| Grizzlies 1H O/U 56.5 | 50% |
| Grizzlies O/U 112.5 | 50% |
| Warriors O/U 118.5 | 50% |
| Warriors O/U 119.5 | 50% |
| Grizzlies 1H O/U 59.5 | 50% |
| Grizzlies 1H O/U 57.5 | 50% |
| Grizzlies 1H O/U 58.5 | 50% |
| Warriors 1H O/U 61.5 | 50% |
| Grizzlies O/U 116.5 | 50% |
| Grizzlies 1H O/U 60.5 | 50% |
| Grizzlies 1H O/U 61.5 | 50% |
| Warriors O/U 120.5 | 50% |
| Grizzlies 1H O/U 62.5 | 50% |
| Warriors 1H O/U 63.5 | 50% |
| Grizzlies O/U 117.5 | 50% |
| Warriors O/U 123.5 | 50% |
| Warriors O/U 124.5 | 50% |
| Grizzlies O/U 121.5 | 50% |
| Grizzlies 1H O/U 63.5 | 50% |
| Warriors O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| Warriors 1H O/U 65.5 | 50% |
| Grizzlies O/U 122.5 | 50% |
| Grizzlies 1H O/U 64.5 | 50% |
| Warriors O/U 128.5 | 50% |
| Grizzlies O/U 126.5 | 50% |
| Warriors O/U 129.5 | 50% |
| Warriors O/U 130.5 | 50% |
| Jaylen Wells: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| O/U 237.5 | 49% |
| Gui Santos: Points O/U 14.5 | 49% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Points O/U 9.5 | 49% |
| Jaylen Wells: Assists O/U 2.5 | 49% |
| Jerami Grant: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 49% |
| Stephen Curry: Points O/U 39.5 | 48% |
| Stephen Curry: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 48% |
| Stephen Curry: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 48% |
| Jaylen Wells: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 48% |
| O/U 238.5 | 47% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Points O/U 19.5 | 47% |
| Zach Edey: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 47% |
| Zach Edey: Rebounds O/U 15.5 | 46% |
| Cameron Boozer: Points O/U 9.5 | 45% |
| Draymond Green: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 45% |
| Zach Edey: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 44% |
| Ty Jerome: Points O/U 14.5 | 44% |
| Jaylen Wells: Assists O/U 1.5 | 44% |
| Jaylen Wells: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 44% |
| Spread -6.5 | 43% |
| Draymond Green: Points O/U 4.5 | 43% |
| Jerami Grant: Points O/U 9.5 | 43% |
| Ty Jerome: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 43% |
| O/U 240.5 | 42% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 42% |
| Stephen Curry: Points O/U 19.5 | 41% |
| Al Horford: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 41% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 41% |
| Spread -7.5 | 40% |
| 1H Moneyline | 40% |
| Grizzlies vs. Warriors | 39% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Assists O/U 3.5 | 39% |
| Zach Edey: Assists O/U 2.5 | 39% |
| Al Horford: Points O/U 4.5 | 38% |
| Gui Santos: Points O/U 9.5 | 38% |
| Jaylen Wells: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 38% |
| Ty Jerome: Assists O/U 5.5 | 38% |
| Zach Edey: Assists O/U 1.5 | 38% |
| 1H O/U 125.5 | 37% |
| Jaylen Wells: Rebounds O/U 2.5 | 36% |
| Al Horford: Assists O/U 1.5 | 36% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Assists O/U 4.5 | 36% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 36% |
| Spread -9.5 | 35% |
| O/U 243.5 | 35% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 35% |
| Stephen Curry: Assists O/U 3.5 | 35% |
| Draymond Green: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 35% |
| Gui Santos: Assists O/U 4.5 | 35% |
| Cameron Boozer: Points O/U 14.5 | 34% |
| Jaylen Wells: Points O/U 9.5 | 34% |
| Zach Edey: Points O/U 9.5 | 34% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Assists O/U 2.5 | 34% |
| Ty Jerome: Points O/U 19.5 | 33% |
| Al Horford: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 32% |
| Cameron Boozer: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 32% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 32% |
| Cameron Boozer: Assists O/U 3.5 | 32% |
| Jaylen Wells: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 32% |
| Ty Jerome: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 32% |
| Spread -3.5 | 31% |
| Jerami Grant: Assists O/U 1.5 | 31% |
| Jerami Grant: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 31% |
| Jerami Grant: Rebounds O/U 2.5 | 30% |
| Gui Santos: Assists O/U 2.5 | 30% |
| Jerami Grant: Assists O/U 2.5 | 30% |
| O/U 246.5 | 29% |
| Jerami Grant: Points O/U 14.5 | 29% |
| Ty Jerome: Assists O/U 6.5 | 29% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Points O/U 14.5 | 29% |
| Stephen Curry: Points O/U 24.5 | 28% |
| Ty Jerome: Points O/U 21.5 | 28% |
| Jaylen Wells: Points O/U 11.5 | 28% |
| Ty Jerome: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 28% |
| Ty Jerome: Points O/U 34.5 | 28% |
| Cameron Boozer: Rebounds O/U 15.5 | 28% |
| Gui Santos: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 28% |
| Gui Santos: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 28% |
| Gui Santos: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 28% |
| Ty Jerome: Assists O/U 11.5 | 28% |
| Spread -12.5 | 27% |
| Cameron Boozer: Points O/U 16.5 | 27% |
| Zach Edey: Points O/U 11.5 | 27% |
| Draymond Green: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 27% |
| Cameron Boozer: Rebounds O/U 8.5 | 26% |
| Stephen Curry: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 26% |
| Cameron Boozer: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | 26% |
| Al Horford: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 25% |
| 1H O/U 129.5 | 25% |
| O/U 249.5 | 24% |
| Stephen Curry: Assists O/U 4.5 | 24% |
| Cameron Boozer: Assists O/U 4.5 | 24% |
| Draymond Green: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 24% |
| Al Horford: Assists O/U 2.5 | 24% |
| Al Horford: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 24% |
| Spread -6.5 | 23% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 23% |
| Ty Jerome: Points O/U 24.5 | 22% |
| Jerami Grant: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 22% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 22% |
| Cameron Boozer: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 22% |
| Ty Jerome: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 22% |
| Draymond Green: Points O/U 9.5 | 21% |
| Ty Jerome: Assists O/U 7.5 | 21% |
| Spread -15.5 | 20% |
| Cameron Boozer: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 20% |
| Ty Jerome: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 20% |
| Cameron Boozer: Points O/U 19.5 | 19% |
| Gui Santos: Assists O/U 3.5 | 19% |
| Draymond Green: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 19% |
| Jaylen Wells: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 19% |
| Jerami Grant: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 19% |
| Al Horford: Points O/U 9.5 | 18% |
| Jaylen Wells: Points O/U 14.5 | 18% |
| Spread -9.5 | 17% |
| Stephen Curry: Points O/U 29.5 | 17% |
| Zach Edey: Points O/U 14.5 | 17% |
| Zach Edey: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 17% |
| Jerami Grant: Points O/U 19.5 | 16% |
| Cameron Boozer: Assists O/U 5.5 | 16% |
| Draymond Green: Assists O/U 7.5 | 16% |
| Stephen Curry: Assists O/U 5.5 | 16% |
| Stephen Curry: 3-Pointers Made O/U 5.5 | 16% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 14% |
| Ty Jerome: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 14% |
| Spread -18.5 | 13% |
| Cameron Boozer: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 13% |
| Zach Edey: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | 13% |
| Draymond Green: Assists O/U 9.5 | 13% |
| Al Horford: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 13% |
| Cameron Boozer: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 13% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 13% |
| Stephen Curry: Points O/U 34.5 | 12% |
| Ty Jerome: Assists O/U 9.5 | 12% |
| Ty Jerome: Points O/U 29.5 | 11% |
| Cameron Boozer: Assists O/U 7.5 | 11% |
| Stephen Curry: 3-Pointers Made O/U 6.5 | 11% |
| Cameron Boozer: Points O/U 24.5 | 10% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Points O/U 24.5 | 10% |
| Jaylen Wells: Points O/U 19.5 | 9% |
| Stephen Curry: Assists O/U 7.5 | 9% |
| Draymond Green: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 9% |
| Draymond Green: Points O/U 14.5 | 8% |
| Jerami Grant: Points O/U 24.5 | 8% |
| Zach Edey: Points O/U 19.5 | 8% |
| Al Horford: Points O/U 14.5 | 7% |
Markt-Kontext
Prognose: Grizzlies vs. Warriors — aktuelle Marktwahrscheinlichkeit: 79%. In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for October 23 at 10:00PM ET: If the Grizzlies win, the market will resolve to "Grizzlies". If the Warriors win, the market will resolve to "Warriors". If the game …
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $487K.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Diese Seite ist als Vergleichs-Snapshot konzipiert: ein Live-Kurs (Polymarket), vier Referenz-Plattformen mit ihren Schlüssel-Eigenschaften, und ein durchgehender Pfad zur Ausführung — alle Trade-Buttons routen zu PolyGram, das den Polymarket-Orderbuch direkt spiegelt.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Die Auflösung läuft on-chain. Polymarkets Vertragslogik trennt YES- und NO-Anteile als Conditional Tokens; bei Auflösung werden die richtigen Anteile zu 100¢ und die anderen zu 0¢. Die Outcome-Eingabe kommt vom UMA Optimistic Oracle, das mit einem Bond-System gegen falsche Auflösung absichert.
Sobald die Auflösung durch ist, hebt der Smart Contract alle gewinnenden Anteile zu USDC und schickt die Beträge an die Wallets der Inhaber. Das geschieht binnen Minuten der finalen Bestätigung — ohne Auszahlungsgebühren über die Polygon-Netzwerkkosten hinaus.
Häufige Fragen
- Sind Prediction-Märkte in Deutschland legal?
- Prediction-Märkte befinden sich in Deutschland in einem rechtlichen Graubereich. Polymarket selbst ist in Deutschland geo-blockiert. Handeln Sie nur mit Kapital, dessen Verlust Sie verkraften können, und prüfen Sie die rechtliche Lage für Ihre Jurisdiktion.
- Was ist der Unterschied zwischen YES- und NO-Anteilen?
- Ein YES-Anteil zahlt $1,00 bei Eintritt des Ereignisses, sonst $0. Ein NO-Anteil zahlt $1,00, wenn das Ereignis nicht eintritt. Der Marktpreis zwischen 0¢ und 100¢ ist die implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit.
- Welche Gebühren fallen bei Polymarket an?
- Direkt am Polymarket-Orderbuch keine Gebühren — die einzigen Kosten sind Polygon-Netzwerkgebühren (typischerweise unter $0,01 pro Transaktion). Off-chain Plattformen wie Kalshi oder Betfair verlangen 2-7 % Kommission.
- Wie lange dauert eine USDC-Einzahlung?
- Auf Polygon werden Einzahlungen nach 12 Bestätigungen gutgeschrieben — in der Regel unter 30 Sekunden. Withdrawals folgen demselben Pfad und sind binnen Minuten auf Ihrer Wallet.
- Brauche ich KYC für diesen Markt?
- Auf Polymarket direkt nicht. Über vermittelnde Broker wie PolyGram ist KYC erst ab $1.500 lebenslangem Trading-Volumen erforderlich — darunter handeln Sie pseudonym mit nur einer Wallet-Adresse.
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