Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über PolyGram) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
96% | 4% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
96% | 4% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| O/U 24.5 | 96% |
| O/U 26.5 | 95% |
| O/U 28.5 | 93% |
| Saints O/U 10.5 | 92% |
| Giants O/U 10.5 | 91% |
| O/U 30.5 | 89% |
| Saints O/U 13.5 | 89% |
| O/U 32.5 | 87% |
| 2Q O/U 6.5 | 87% |
| Giants O/U 13.5 | 85% |
| 4Q O/U 6.5 | 84% |
| Giants O/U 12.5 | 84% |
| O/U 34.5 | 81% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 81% |
| 3Q O/U 5.5 | 79% |
| O/U 36.5 | 78% |
| Saints 1H O/U 6.5 | 78% |
| Saints O/U 16.5 | 77% |
| Giants O/U 16.5 | 77% |
| Giants 1H O/U 6.5 | 77% |
| 1H O/U 16.5 | 76% |
| 1Q O/U 5.5 | 76% |
| 2H O/U 16.5 | 75% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 75% |
| O/U 38.5 | 72% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 72% |
| 1Q O/U 6.5 | 70% |
| 2Q O/U 5.5 | 70% |
| 4Q O/U 5.5 | 70% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 2Q | 69% |
| Saints O/U 19.5 | 68% |
| Giants O/U 19.5 | 66% |
| O/U 40.5 | 65% |
| 1H O/U 19.5 | 64% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 63% |
| O/U 42.5 | 62% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 59% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 59% |
| Saints O/U 20.5 | 59% |
| Giants O/U 20.5 | 59% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 4Q | 57% |
| O/U 44.5 | 56% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 54% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 52% |
| Saints vs. Giants | 51% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 51% |
| 1H O/U 22.5 | 51% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 51% |
| Saints 2H O/U 6.5 | 51% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| Saints O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Saints O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| Saints O/U 34.5 | 50% |
| Saints 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Saints 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Saints 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Saints 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Saints 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Saints 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Saints 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Giants 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Giants 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Giants 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Giants 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Giants 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Giants 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Giants 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Giants 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Saints by 25+ | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Saints by 19-24 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Saints by 13-18 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Saints by 7-12 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Giants by 7-13 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Giants by 14-20 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Giants by 21+ | 50% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 1H Moneyline | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| O/U 46.5 | 49% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 49% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 49% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 49% |
| Spread -1.5 | 48% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 48% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 48% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 48% |
| Saints O/U 23.5 | 48% |
| Spread -1.5 | 47% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 47% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 47% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 47% |
| Giants O/U 23.5 | 47% |
| Saints 1H O/U 12.5 | 47% |
| Giants 1H O/U 10.5 | 47% |
| Spread -2.5 | 46% |
| Spread -2.5 | 46% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 46% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 46% |
| Saints 1H O/U 10.5 | 46% |
| Giants 1H O/U 12.5 | 45% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 3Q | 45% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 44% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 43% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 43% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 43% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 43% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 43% |
| 2Q O/U 14.5 | 43% |
| O/U 48.5 | 42% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 42% |
| Giants 1H O/U 17.5 | 42% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 41% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 40% |
| 4Q O/U 14.5 | 40% |
| Saints 1H O/U 17.5 | 40% |
| Saints Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 40% |
| Giants Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 40% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 39% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 39% |
| Giants O/U 26.5 | 39% |
| Saints Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 39% |
| Spread -3.5 | 38% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 38% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 38% |
| 1H O/U 25.5 | 38% |
| Saints 1H O/U 13.5 | 38% |
| O/U 50.5 | 37% |
| Spread -3.5 | 37% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 37% |
| Giants 1H O/U 13.5 | 37% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 1Q | 37% |
| Giants Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 37% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 36% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 36% |
| Spread -4.5 | 35% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 35% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 35% |
| Spread -4.5 | 34% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 34% |
| Spread -5.5 | 33% |
| Spread -5.5 | 33% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 33% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 33% |
| O/U 52.5 | 32% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 32% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 31% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 31% |
| Spread -6.5 | 30% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 30% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 30% |
| Saints O/U 27.5 | 30% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 29% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 29% |
| Spread -6.5 | 28% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 28% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 28% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 28% |
| Giants O/U 27.5 | 28% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 27% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 27% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 27% |
| O/U 54.5 | 26% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 26% |
| Spread -7.5 | 25% |
| 1H O/U 28.5 | 25% |
| Saints 1H O/U 16.5 | 25% |
| Giants 1H O/U 16.5 | 25% |
| Spread -7.5 | 24% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 24% |
| Spread -8.5 | 23% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 23% |
| Spread -9.5 | 22% |
| Spread -8.5 | 22% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 22% |
| Spread -9.5 | 21% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 21% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 21% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 21% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 21% |
| Saints O/U 30.5 | 21% |
| Giants O/U 30.5 | 21% |
| Giants O/U 34.5 | 21% |
| Saints vs. Giants: Total Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 21% |
| O/U 56.5 | 20% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 20% |
| Spread -10.5 | 19% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 19% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 19% |
| Spread -10.5 | 18% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 17% |
| 3Q O/U 14.5 | 17% |
| Exact Margin: Saints by 1-6 | 17% |
| Exact Margin: Giants by 1-6 | 17% |
| O/U 58.5 | 16% |
| Saints 1H O/U 19.5 | 16% |
| Spread -13.5 | 15% |
| O/U 60.5 | 14% |
| Spread -13.5 | 14% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 14% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 14% |
| 1Q O/U 14.5 | 14% |
| Giants 1H O/U 19.5 | 14% |
| Spread -14.5 | 13% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 13% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 13% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 13% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 13% |
| Spread -14.5 | 12% |
| O/U 62.5 | 11% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 11% |
| Saints 1H O/U 20.5 | 11% |
| Giants 1H O/U 20.5 | 11% |
| Spread -16.5 | 10% |
| Spread -16.5 | 10% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 10% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 10% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 9% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 9% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 9% |
| O/U 64.5 | 8% |
| Spread -17.5 | 8% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 8% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 8% |
| Spread -17.5 | 7% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 7% |
| Safety? | 7% |
| Spread -19.5 | 6% |
| Spread -21.5 | 6% |
| Spread -19.5 | 6% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 6% |
| Spread -20.5 | 5% |
| Spread -20.5 | 5% |
| Spread -21.5 | 5% |
| Exact Margin: Tie | 2% |
Markt-Kontext
Prognose: Saints vs. Giants — aktuelle Marktwahrscheinlichkeit: 96%. In the upcoming NFL football game between Saints and Giants, scheduled for October 18 at 1:00PM ET: This market will resolve to "Saints" if Saints win the game. This market will resolve to "Giants" if…
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $255K.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Methodisch unterscheiden wir zwei Schichten: die Live-Wahrscheinlichkeit (Polymarket-Mid-Preis) und die Plattform-Attribute (Gebühren, KYC, Auszahlung, Settlement-Währung). Eine kanonische Wahrscheinlichkeit über die Zeile, die Anbieter-spezifischen Trade-offs in den Spalten — sauber, vergleichbar, ohne Marketing-Lärm.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Polymarket-basierte Märkte werden über das UMA Optimistic Oracle auf Polygon aufgelöst. Ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, und unangefochtene Vorschläge schließen die Auflösung ab. Auszahlungen erfolgen automatisch in USDC, sobald das Ergebnis final ist — keine Buchhalter, keine Verzögerung.
Kalshi-basierte Märkte werden in USD über die CFTC-regulierte Settlement-Engine ausgezahlt. Betfair Exchange zahlt in GBP/EUR aus, abzüglich Kommission. Manifold ist Spielgeld und zahlt keine echten Beträge aus.
Häufige Fragen
- Wo kann ich diesen Markt am günstigsten handeln?
- Polymarket selbst ist global zugänglich, in DE/AT/CH allerdings geo-blockiert. Der einfachste Broker mit gleichem Orderbuch und 0 % Gebühr ist PolyGram. Kalshi nimmt bis zu 7 % pro Trade, Betfair Exchange 2-5 % Kommission auf Gewinne.
- Wie funktioniert die Auflösung?
- Über das UMA Optimistic Oracle: ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, USDC-Auszahlung erfolgt automatisch.
- Was ist der Unterschied zwischen YES- und NO-Anteilen?
- Ein YES-Anteil zahlt $1,00 bei Eintritt des Ereignisses, sonst $0. Ein NO-Anteil zahlt $1,00, wenn das Ereignis nicht eintritt. Der Marktpreis zwischen 0¢ und 100¢ ist die implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit.
- Welche Gebühren fallen bei Polymarket an?
- Direkt am Polymarket-Orderbuch keine Gebühren — die einzigen Kosten sind Polygon-Netzwerkgebühren (typischerweise unter $0,01 pro Transaktion). Off-chain Plattformen wie Kalshi oder Betfair verlangen 2-7 % Kommission.
- Wie lange dauert eine USDC-Einzahlung?
- Auf Polygon werden Einzahlungen nach 12 Bestätigungen gutgeschrieben — in der Regel unter 30 Sekunden. Withdrawals folgen demselben Pfad und sind binnen Minuten auf Ihrer Wallet.
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Jetzt „Prognose: Saints vs. Giants" auf PolyGram handeln
Live-Orderbuch, 0 % Gebühren, USDC-Auszahlung in Sekunden.
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