Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über PolyGram) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
93% | 7% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
93% | 7% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| 2Q Moneyline | 93% |
| Arkansas State vs. Southern Miss | 90% |
| O/U 37.5 | 89% |
| Arkansas State O/U 20.5 | 85% |
| O/U 39.5 | 84% |
| O/U 35.5 | 83% |
| O/U 41.5 | 83% |
| Spread -2.5 | 81% |
| Arkansas State O/U 23.5 | 81% |
| Spread -1.5 | 78% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 78% |
| O/U 43.5 | 77% |
| Spread -3.5 | 74% |
| Spread -4.5 | 73% |
| Spread -5.5 | 72% |
| O/U 45.5 | 71% |
| Spread -10.5 | 70% |
| O/U 47.5 | 69% |
| O/U 49.5 | 69% |
| Spread -6.5 | 67% |
| Spread -7.5 | 63% |
| O/U 51.5 | 59% |
| Spread -8.5 | 57% |
| O/U 53.5 | 55% |
| Spread -13.5 | 54% |
| 1H O/U 30.5 | 54% |
| Arkansas State 1H O/U 11.5 | 53% |
| 1Q Spread -5.5 | 53% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 53% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 53% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 53% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 53% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 53% |
| Southern Miss Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 51% |
| Southern Miss Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 51% |
| Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 33.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 33.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas State O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas State O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas State O/U 32.5 | 50% |
| Southern Miss O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Southern Miss O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| Southern Miss O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Southern Miss O/U 32.5 | 50% |
| Southern Miss O/U 35.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas State 1H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas State 1H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Southern Miss 1H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Southern Miss 1H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Southern Miss 1H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas State 2H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas State 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas State 2H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Southern Miss 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Southern Miss 2H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Southern Miss 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q4 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q2 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 2H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 1H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q3 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q1 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q2 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q3 | 50% |
| Game Goes to Overtime | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q4 | 50% |
| Arkansas State vs. Southern Miss: Total Touchdowns O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Pick-Six Scored | 50% |
| Kickoff or Punt Return Touchdown | 50% |
| Arkansas State vs. Southern Miss: Total Touchdowns O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas State vs. Southern Miss: Total Touchdowns O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Southern Miss Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Southern Miss Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Southern Miss Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas State Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas State Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas State Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| Southern Miss Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| Southern Miss Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| Southern Miss Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| Southern Miss Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Southern Miss Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| Southern Miss Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Southern Miss Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas State 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas State 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Southern Miss 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas State Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Southern Miss 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas State Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Southern Miss Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas State Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Southern Miss Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Southern Miss Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas State Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas State Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas State Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Southern Miss Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Southern Miss Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Southern Miss Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas State Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Southern Miss Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas State Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas State Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Southern Miss Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas State vs. Southern Miss: Total 4th Down Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas State vs. Southern Miss: Total Successful Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas State vs. Southern Miss: Total Defensive/Special Teams Touchdowns O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Southern Miss Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| Arkansas State O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Southern Miss O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| 1H Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Spread -17.5 | 49% |
| Spread -14.5 | 49% |
| O/U 57.5 | 48% |
| Spread -16.5 | 47% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 47% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 47% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 47% |
| 1Q O/U 16.5 | 47% |
| 1Q O/U 19.5 | 47% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q1 | 47% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 47% |
| O/U 55.5 | 46% |
| O/U 59.5 | 44% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 44% |
| Spread -17.5 | 41% |
| O/U 63.5 | 33% |
| Spread -20.5 | 31% |
| O/U 61.5 | 30% |
| O/U 65.5 | 30% |
| O/U 69.5 | 27% |
| O/U 71.5 | 26% |
| O/U 75.5 | 24% |
| O/U 67.5 | 18% |
| Spread -6.5 | 13% |
| Spread -1.5 | 12% |
| Spread -4.5 | 12% |
| Spread -3.5 | 11% |
| Spread -5.5 | 10% |
| Spread -7.5 | 10% |
| Spread -10.5 | 10% |
| Spread -14.5 | 10% |
| Spread -13.5 | 9% |
| O/U 73.5 | 8% |
Markt-Kontext
Arkansas State vs. Southern Miss. The market is currently pricing the outcome at 90% YES, meaning crowd-implied probability sits at that level. Settlement is scheduled for 2026-10-17T23:00:00Z. Unlike a sportsbook, the price you see is set by buyers and sellers competing in a live order book — there is no house edge or bookmaker margin to fade.
Sports outcome markets resolve from official league data once the contest finishes. Pricing typically tightens through the warm-up window as line-ups, weather, and starting-pitcher data become public, then moves on goals or runs in real time.
Watch for the underlying catalysts that move this category: each official announcement, dataset release, or scheduled milestone generally produces a step change in the implied probability. Trades execute instantly on Polygon, and shares pay $1 each at resolution if your side wins.
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $158K.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Diese Seite ist als Vergleichs-Snapshot konzipiert: ein Live-Kurs (Polymarket), vier Referenz-Plattformen mit ihren Schlüssel-Eigenschaften, und ein durchgehender Pfad zur Ausführung — alle Trade-Buttons routen zu PolyGram, das den Polymarket-Orderbuch direkt spiegelt.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Polymarket-basierte Märkte werden über das UMA Optimistic Oracle auf Polygon aufgelöst. Ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, und unangefochtene Vorschläge schließen die Auflösung ab. Auszahlungen erfolgen automatisch in USDC, sobald das Ergebnis final ist — keine Buchhalter, keine Verzögerung.
Kalshi-basierte Märkte werden in USD über die CFTC-regulierte Settlement-Engine ausgezahlt. Betfair Exchange zahlt in GBP/EUR aus, abzüglich Kommission. Manifold ist Spielgeld und zahlt keine echten Beträge aus.
Häufige Fragen
- Wo kann ich diesen Markt am günstigsten handeln?
- Polymarket selbst ist global zugänglich, in DE/AT/CH allerdings geo-blockiert. Der einfachste Broker mit gleichem Orderbuch und 0 % Gebühr ist PolyGram. Kalshi nimmt bis zu 7 % pro Trade, Betfair Exchange 2-5 % Kommission auf Gewinne.
- Wie funktioniert die Auflösung?
- Über das UMA Optimistic Oracle: ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, USDC-Auszahlung erfolgt automatisch.
- Welche Gebühren fallen bei Polymarket an?
- Direkt am Polymarket-Orderbuch keine Gebühren — die einzigen Kosten sind Polygon-Netzwerkgebühren (typischerweise unter $0,01 pro Transaktion). Off-chain Plattformen wie Kalshi oder Betfair verlangen 2-7 % Kommission.
- Wie lange dauert eine USDC-Einzahlung?
- Auf Polygon werden Einzahlungen nach 12 Bestätigungen gutgeschrieben — in der Regel unter 30 Sekunden. Withdrawals folgen demselben Pfad und sind binnen Minuten auf Ihrer Wallet.
- Brauche ich KYC für diesen Markt?
- Auf Polymarket direkt nicht. Über vermittelnde Broker wie PolyGram ist KYC erst ab $1.500 lebenslangem Trading-Volumen erforderlich — darunter handeln Sie pseudonym mit nur einer Wallet-Adresse.
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