Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über PolyGram) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
83% | 17% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
83% | 17% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| Harry Kane: 1+ shots | 83% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ shots | 78% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ shots | 61% |
| Jude Bellingham: 1+ shots | 59% |
| Désiré Doué: 1+ shots | 57% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ shots | 57% |
| Anthony Gordon: 1+ shots | 54% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals | 53% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ shots on target | 53% |
| Désiré Doué: 2+ shots | 53% |
| Bradley Barcola: 1+ shots | 52% |
| Michael Olise: 1+ shots | 51% |
| Michael Olise: 2+ shots | 51% |
| Bradley Barcola: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Eberechi Eze: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Michael Olise: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Dayot Upamecano: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jordan Pickford: 2+ saves | 49% |
| Declan Rice: 1+ shots | 49% |
| Bradley Barcola: 4+ shots on target | 49% |
| Désiré Doué: 4+ shots on target | 49% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Michael Olise: 4+ shots on target | 49% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Anthony Gordon: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Anthony Gordon: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Anthony Gordon: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Anthony Gordon: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Bradley Barcola: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Bradley Barcola: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Bradley Barcola: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Bukayo Saka: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Bukayo Saka: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Bukayo Saka: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Declan Rice: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Declan Rice: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Désiré Doué: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Désiré Doué: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Désiré Doué: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Eberechi Eze: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Eberechi Eze: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Elliot Anderson: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Elliot Anderson: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Elliot Anderson: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Harry Kane: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Harry Kane: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Jude Bellingham: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Jude Bellingham: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Jude Bellingham: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Manu Koné: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Manu Koné: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Manu Koné: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Manu Koné: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Marcus Rashford: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Marcus Rashford: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Marcus Rashford: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Michael Olise: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Michael Olise: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Morgan Rogers: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Morgan Rogers: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Noni Madueke: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Noni Madueke: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Rayan Cherki: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Rayan Cherki: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Rayan Cherki: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Théo Hernández: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Théo Hernández: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Jude Bellingham: 4+ shots on target | 49% |
| Jordan Pickford: 3+ saves | 48% |
| Anthony Gordon: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Harry Kane: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Lucas Digne: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Elliot Anderson: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Morgan Rogers: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 1+ shots on target | 47% |
| Jules Koundé: 1+ shots on target | 47% |
| Harry Kane: 3+ shots | 47% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 3+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Bukayo Saka: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Declan Rice: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Noni Madueke: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Théo Hernández: 4+ goals + assists | 46% |
| Brice Samba: 2+ saves | 45% |
| Anthony Gordon: 3+ shots on target | 44% |
| Manu Koné: 1+ shots | 43% |
| Jude Bellingham: 2+ shots on target | 43% |
| Declan Rice: 1+ shots on target | 42% |
| Manu Koné: 1+ shots on target | 42% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 3+ shots | 42% |
| Elliot Anderson: 1+ shots on target | 41% |
| Michael Olise: 1+ shots on target | 41% |
| Bradley Barcola: 2+ shots on target | 40% |
| Désiré Doué: 1+ shots on target | 40% |
| Jude Bellingham: 1+ shots on target | 40% |
| Lucas Digne: 1+ shots on target | 40% |
| Brice Samba: 3+ saves | 39% |
| Harry Kane: 1+ goals | 37% |
| Anthony Gordon: 2+ shots on target | 37% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 4+ shots on target | 37% |
| Jordan Pickford: 5+ saves | 36% |
| Anthony Gordon: 2+ shots | 36% |
| Bradley Barcola: 1+ shots on target | 36% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 2+ shots on target | 36% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals + assists | 36% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 1+ shots | 35% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 3+ shots on target | 34% |
| Brice Samba: 4+ saves | 33% |
| Jude Bellingham: 3+ shots on target | 33% |
| Jude Bellingham: 2+ shots | 32% |
| Bradley Barcola: 3+ shots on target | 32% |
| Declan Rice: 2+ shots on target | 32% |
| Michael Olise: 3+ shots on target | 32% |
| Jules Koundé: 1+ shots | 31% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 2+ shots on target | 31% |
| Harry Kane: 4+ shots on target | 31% |
| Manu Koné: 2+ shots on target | 31% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 2+ shots on target | 31% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 1+ shots | 30% |
| Elliot Anderson: 2+ shots on target | 30% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 4+ shots on target | 30% |
| William Saliba: 1+ shots on target | 30% |
| Rayan Cherki: 1+ goals + assists | 30% |
| Jordan Pickford: 4+ saves | 29% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals | 28% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 1+ shots | 28% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals + assists | 27% |
| Brice Samba: 5+ saves | 26% |
| Michael Olise: 1+ assists | 26% |
| Harry Kane: 1+ goals + assists | 26% |
| Michael Olise: 1+ goals + assists | 26% |
| Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals | 25% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ shots on target | 24% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ shots on target | 24% |
| Declan Rice: 2+ goals | 23% |
| Elliot Anderson: 1+ shots | 23% |
| Désiré Doué: 3+ shots | 23% |
| Marcus Rashford: 1+ goals + assists | 23% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 3+ shots on target | 22% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 1+ assists | 22% |
| Eberechi Eze: 1+ goals + assists | 22% |
| Bradley Barcola: 2+ shots | 21% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 1+ shots on target | 21% |
| Désiré Doué: 2+ shots on target | 21% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 4+ shots | 21% |
| Morgan Rogers: 1+ goals + assists | 21% |
| Noni Madueke: 1+ goals + assists | 21% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 1+ goals + assists | 20% |
| Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals + assists | 20% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals | 19% |
| Michael Olise: 1+ goals | 19% |
| Marc Guéhi: 1+ shots | 19% |
| Harry Kane: 4+ shots | 19% |
| Théo Hernández: 1+ goals + assists | 19% |
| Manu Koné: 2+ shots | 18% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 2+ shots | 17% |
| Dayot Upamecano: 1+ shots | 17% |
| Elliot Anderson: 2+ shots | 17% |
| Ezri Konsa: 1+ shots | 17% |
| Jude Bellingham: 3+ shots | 17% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 2+ shots | 17% |
| Michael Olise: 2+ shots on target | 17% |
| Michael Olise: 3+ shots | 17% |
| Désiré Doué: 1+ goals | 16% |
| Lucas Digne: 1+ shots | 16% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 2+ shots | 16% |
| Rayan Cherki: 1+ assists | 16% |
| Anthony Gordon: 1+ goals | 14% |
| Rayan Cherki: 1+ goals | 14% |
| Dayot Upamecano: 1+ shots on target | 14% |
| Ezri Konsa: 1+ shots on target | 14% |
| Marc Guéhi: 1+ shots on target | 14% |
| Anthony Gordon: 1+ assists | 14% |
| Anthony Gordon: 2+ assists | 14% |
| Harry Kane: 1+ assists | 14% |
| Morgan Rogers: 2+ assists | 14% |
| Declan Rice: 1+ goals + assists | 14% |
| Désiré Doué: 1+ goals + assists | 14% |
| Anthony Gordon: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Bradley Barcola: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Désiré Doué: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Eberechi Eze: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Elliot Anderson: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Marcus Rashford: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Marcus Rashford: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Michael Olise: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Morgan Rogers: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Harry Kane: 3+ shots on target | 13% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Bukayo Saka: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Eberechi Eze: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Elliot Anderson: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Noni Madueke: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Rayan Cherki: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Théo Hernández: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Anthony Gordon: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 2+ goals | 12% |
| Eberechi Eze: 1+ goals | 12% |
| Noni Madueke: 1+ goals | 12% |
| Théo Hernández: 2+ goals | 12% |
| Jules Koundé: 2+ shots | 12% |
| Bradley Barcola: 3+ shots | 12% |
| Désiré Doué: 3+ shots on target | 12% |
| Bukayo Saka: 1+ assists | 12% |
| Noni Madueke: 1+ assists | 12% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ assists | 12% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 2+ goals | 11% |
| Bradley Barcola: 1+ goals | 11% |
| Bukayo Saka: 2+ goals | 11% |
| Manu Koné: 2+ goals | 11% |
| Noni Madueke: 2+ goals | 11% |
| Anthony Gordon: 3+ shots | 11% |
| Lucas Digne: 2+ shots | 11% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 1+ shots on target | 11% |
| Marcus Rashford: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Morgan Rogers: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Jude Bellingham: 4+ shots | 10% |
| Jules Koundé: 3+ shots | 10% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 2+ shots on target | 10% |
| Michael Olise: 4+ shots | 10% |
| Bradley Barcola: 1+ assists | 10% |
| Désiré Doué: 1+ assists | 10% |
| Marcus Rashford: 1+ assists | 10% |
| Bukayo Saka: 1+ goals | 9% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ goals | 9% |
| Rayan Cherki: 2+ goals | 9% |
| Rayan Cherki: 3+ goals | 9% |
| Dayot Upamecano: 2+ shots | 9% |
| Declan Rice: 2+ shots | 9% |
| Désiré Doué: 4+ shots | 9% |
| Eberechi Eze: 1+ assists | 9% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 3+ shots | 8% |
| Jude Bellingham: 1+ assists | 8% |
| Théo Hernández: 1+ assists | 8% |
| Declan Rice: 1+ goals | 7% |
| Théo Hernández: 1+ goals | 7% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 3+ shots | 7% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 1+ assists | 7% |
| Elliot Anderson: 1+ assists | 7% |
| Anthony Gordon: 4+ shots | 6% |
| Dayot Upamecano: 3+ shots | 6% |
| Declan Rice: 3+ shots | 6% |
| Ezri Konsa: 2+ shots | 6% |
| Lucas Digne: 3+ shots | 6% |
| Marc Guéhi: 2+ shots | 6% |
| Manu Koné: 2+ assists | 6% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Elliot Anderson: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goals | 5% |
| Manu Koné: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Elliot Anderson: 3+ shots | 5% |
| Manu Koné: 3+ shots | 5% |
| Bradley Barcola: 4+ shots | 5% |
| Désiré Doué: 5+ shots | 5% |
| Harry Kane: 5+ shots | 5% |
| Michael Olise: 5+ shots | 5% |
| Declan Rice: 1+ assists | 5% |
| Manu Koné: 1+ assists | 5% |
| Michael Olise: 2+ assists | 5% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 1+ goals | 4% |
| Michael Olise: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Jude Bellingham: 5+ shots | 4% |
| Manu Koné: 4+ shots | 4% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 3+ shots | 4% |
| Bradley Barcola: 5+ shots | 4% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 5+ shots | 4% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 1+ assists | 4% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ assists | 4% |
| Jude Bellingham: 2+ assists | 4% |
| Morgan Rogers: 1+ assists | 4% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ assists | 4% |
| Désiré Doué: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Jude Bellingham: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 4+ shots | 3% |
| Anthony Gordon: 5+ shots | 3% |
| Elliot Anderson: 4+ shots | 3% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 4+ shots | 3% |
| Declan Rice: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Bradley Barcola: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Harry Kane: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Declan Rice: 4+ shots | 2% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Bradley Barcola: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Désiré Doué: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Marcus Rashford: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Jude Bellingham: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 3+ goals | 1% |
| William Saliba: 1+ shots | 1% |
| William Saliba: 2+ shots | 1% |
Markt-Kontext
Marktkonsens: 83% Chance für prognose: france vs. england - player props. Prognosemärkte bündeln echtes Kapital zu diesem Wahrscheinlichkeitssignal. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between France and England, scheduled for July 18 at 5:00 PM ET.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Methodisch unterscheiden wir zwei Schichten: die Live-Wahrscheinlichkeit (Polymarket-Mid-Preis) und die Plattform-Attribute (Gebühren, KYC, Auszahlung, Settlement-Währung). Eine kanonische Wahrscheinlichkeit über die Zeile, die Anbieter-spezifischen Trade-offs in den Spalten — sauber, vergleichbar, ohne Marketing-Lärm.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Polymarket-basierte Märkte werden über das UMA Optimistic Oracle auf Polygon aufgelöst. Ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, und unangefochtene Vorschläge schließen die Auflösung ab. Auszahlungen erfolgen automatisch in USDC, sobald das Ergebnis final ist — keine Buchhalter, keine Verzögerung.
Kalshi-basierte Märkte werden in USD über die CFTC-regulierte Settlement-Engine ausgezahlt. Betfair Exchange zahlt in GBP/EUR aus, abzüglich Kommission. Manifold ist Spielgeld und zahlt keine echten Beträge aus.
Häufige Fragen
- Wie funktioniert die Auflösung?
- Über das UMA Optimistic Oracle: ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, USDC-Auszahlung erfolgt automatisch.
- Was ist der Unterschied zwischen YES- und NO-Anteilen?
- Ein YES-Anteil zahlt $1,00 bei Eintritt des Ereignisses, sonst $0. Ein NO-Anteil zahlt $1,00, wenn das Ereignis nicht eintritt. Der Marktpreis zwischen 0¢ und 100¢ ist die implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit.
- Welche Gebühren fallen bei Polymarket an?
- Direkt am Polymarket-Orderbuch keine Gebühren — die einzigen Kosten sind Polygon-Netzwerkgebühren (typischerweise unter $0,01 pro Transaktion). Off-chain Plattformen wie Kalshi oder Betfair verlangen 2-7 % Kommission.
- Wie lange dauert eine USDC-Einzahlung?
- Auf Polygon werden Einzahlungen nach 12 Bestätigungen gutgeschrieben — in der Regel unter 30 Sekunden. Withdrawals folgen demselben Pfad und sind binnen Minuten auf Ihrer Wallet.
- Brauche ich KYC für diesen Markt?
- Auf Polymarket direkt nicht. Über vermittelnde Broker wie PolyGram ist KYC erst ab $1.500 lebenslangem Trading-Volumen erforderlich — darunter handeln Sie pseudonym mit nur einer Wallet-Adresse.
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Jetzt „Prognose: France vs. England - Player Props" auf PolyGram handeln
Live-Orderbuch, 0 % Gebühren, USDC-Auszahlung in Sekunden.
Live-Markt öffnen →