Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über PolyGram) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| Dan Ndoye: 1+ shots | 100% |
| Gustavo Puerta: 1+ shots | 100% |
| Gustavo Puerta: 2+ shots | 100% |
| Jhon Arias: 1+ shots | 99% |
| Luis Díaz: 1+ shots | 99% |
| Luis Suárez: 1+ shots | 99% |
| Gustavo Puerta: 1+ shots on target | 99% |
| Luis Díaz: 2+ shots | 75% |
| Luis Díaz: 3+ shots | 70% |
| Breel Embolo: 1+ shots | 67% |
| James Rodríguez: 1+ shots | 67% |
| Luis Díaz: 1+ goals + assists | 59% |
| James Rodríguez: 1+ goals + assists | 55% |
| Breel Embolo: 1+ goals + assists | 53% |
| Granit Xhaka: 2+ shots | 52% |
| Luis Suárez: 1+ goals + assists | 52% |
| Gustavo Puerta: 3+ shots | 51% |
| James Rodríguez: 2+ shots | 51% |
| Jefferson Lerma: 2+ shots | 51% |
| Remo Freuler: 1+ shots | 51% |
| Jhon Arias: 1+ assists | 51% |
| Jhon Arias: 1+ goals + assists | 51% |
| Richard Ríos: 1+ goals | 50% |
| Breel Embolo: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Breel Embolo: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Breel Embolo: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Dan Ndoye: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Dan Ndoye: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Dan Ndoye: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Dan Ndoye: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Davinson Sánchez: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Davinson Sánchez: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Davinson Sánchez: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Denis Zakaria: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Denis Zakaria: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Denis Zakaria: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Granit Xhaka: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Granit Xhaka: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Gustavo Puerta: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Gustavo Puerta: 5+ shots | 50% |
| James Rodríguez: 3+ shots | 50% |
| James Rodríguez: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Jhon Arias: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Jhon Arias: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Jhon Arias: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Jhon Arias: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Jhon Lucumí: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Jhon Lucumí: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Johan Mojica: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Johan Mojica: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Johan Mojica: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Luis Díaz: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Luis Suárez: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Luis Suárez: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Luis Suárez: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Manuel Akanji: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Manuel Akanji: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Nico Elvedi: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Nico Elvedi: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Remo Freuler: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Remo Freuler: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Ricardo Rodriguez: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Ricardo Rodriguez: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Ruben Vargas: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Ruben Vargas: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Ruben Vargas: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Ruben Vargas: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Ruben Vargas: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Dan Ndoye: 1+ assists | 50% |
| Davinson Sánchez: 1+ assists | 50% |
| Djibril Sow: 1+ assists | 50% |
| Gustavo Puerta: 1+ assists | 50% |
| Richard Ríos: 1+ assists | 50% |
| Ruben Vargas: 1+ assists | 50% |
| Breel Embolo: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Breel Embolo: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Breel Embolo: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Dan Ndoye: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Dan Ndoye: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Dan Ndoye: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Daniel Muñoz: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Daniel Muñoz: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Davinson Sánchez: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Davinson Sánchez: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Denis Zakaria: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Granit Xhaka: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Granit Xhaka: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Gustavo Puerta: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Gustavo Puerta: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| James Rodríguez: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| James Rodríguez: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| James Rodríguez: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jefferson Lerma: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jefferson Lerma: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jhon Arias: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jhon Arias: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jhon Arias: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jhon Lucumí: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Johan Manzambi: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Johan Manzambi: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Johan Manzambi: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Johan Mojica: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Johan Mojica: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Luis Díaz: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Luis Díaz: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Luis Díaz: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Luis Díaz: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Luis Suárez: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Luis Suárez: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Manuel Akanji: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Nico Elvedi: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Remo Freuler: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ricardo Rodriguez: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ruben Vargas: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ruben Vargas: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ruben Vargas: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| David Ospina: 2+ saves | 50% |
| David Ospina: 3+ saves | 50% |
| David Ospina: 4+ saves | 50% |
| David Ospina: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Gregor Kobel: 2+ saves | 50% |
| Gregor Kobel: 3+ saves | 50% |
| Gregor Kobel: 4+ saves | 50% |
| Gregor Kobel: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Breel Embolo: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Breel Embolo: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Breel Embolo: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Dan Ndoye: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Dan Ndoye: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Dan Ndoye: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Dan Ndoye: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Daniel Muñoz: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Daniel Muñoz: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Davinson Sánchez: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Davinson Sánchez: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Davinson Sánchez: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Davinson Sánchez: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Djibril Sow: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Djibril Sow: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Djibril Sow: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Granit Xhaka: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Granit Xhaka: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Granit Xhaka: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Granit Xhaka: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Gustavo Puerta: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Gustavo Puerta: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Gustavo Puerta: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Gustavo Puerta: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| James Rodríguez: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| James Rodríguez: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jefferson Lerma: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jefferson Lerma: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jefferson Lerma: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jhon Arias: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jhon Arias: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jhon Arias: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Johan Manzambi: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Johan Manzambi: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Johan Manzambi: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Johan Manzambi: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Luis Díaz: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Luis Díaz: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Luis Díaz: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Luis Suárez: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Luis Suárez: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Remo Freuler: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Remo Freuler: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Remo Freuler: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Remo Freuler: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Richard Ríos: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Richard Ríos: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Richard Ríos: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Richard Ríos: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ruben Vargas: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ruben Vargas: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ruben Vargas: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ruben Vargas: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| James Rodríguez: 3+ goals | 50% |
| Granit Xhaka: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Manuel Akanji: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Fabian Rieder: 1+ assists | 50% |
| Denis Zakaria: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Fabian Rieder: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Fabian Rieder: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Fabian Rieder: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Fabian Rieder: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Gustavo Puerta: 1+ goals | 49% |
| Luis Díaz: 5+ shots | 49% |
| Luis Suárez: 2+ shots | 49% |
| Luis Suárez: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| James Rodríguez: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Luis Suárez: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Breel Embolo: 2+ shots | 47% |
| Daniel Muñoz: 1+ shots | 33% |
| Daniel Muñoz: 2+ shots | 30% |
| Daniel Muñoz: 3+ shots | 30% |
| James Rodríguez: 5+ shots | 30% |
| Jefferson Lerma: 1+ shots | 26% |
| Jefferson Lerma: 4+ shots | 23% |
| Daniel Muñoz: 4+ goals + assists | 23% |
| Djibril Sow: 3+ goals + assists | 23% |
| Jefferson Lerma: 4+ goals + assists | 23% |
| Dan Ndoye: 2+ assists | 22% |
| Luis Díaz: 1+ goals | 20% |
| Jefferson Lerma: 3+ shots | 18% |
| Breel Embolo: 1+ goals | 16% |
| Luis Suárez: 1+ goals | 15% |
| Luis Díaz: 2+ assists | 14% |
| Fabian Rieder: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Granit Xhaka: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Jhon Córdoba: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Juan Fernando Quintero: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Luis Suárez: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Breel Embolo: 3+ goals | 12% |
| Daniel Muñoz: 2+ goals | 12% |
| Gustavo Puerta: 2+ goals | 12% |
| Jefferson Lerma: 2+ goals | 12% |
| Jhon Arias: 1+ goals | 12% |
| Luis Suárez: 3+ goals | 12% |
| Richard Ríos: 2+ goals | 12% |
| Breel Embolo: 2+ assists | 12% |
| Daniel Muñoz: 2+ assists | 12% |
| Davinson Sánchez: 2+ assists | 12% |
| Djibril Sow: 2+ assists | 12% |
| Granit Xhaka: 2+ assists | 12% |
| Gustavo Puerta: 2+ assists | 12% |
| James Rodríguez: 1+ assists | 12% |
| Jefferson Lerma: 2+ assists | 12% |
| Jhon Arias: 2+ assists | 12% |
| Remo Freuler: 2+ assists | 12% |
| Richard Ríos: 2+ assists | 12% |
| Ruben Vargas: 2+ assists | 12% |
| Fabian Rieder: 2+ assists | 12% |
| Ruben Vargas: 1+ goals | 11% |
| Luis Díaz: 1+ assists | 11% |
| Daniel Muñoz: 1+ goals + assists | 11% |
| Dan Ndoye: 1+ goals | 10% |
| James Rodríguez: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Juan Fernando Quintero: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Luis Díaz: 3+ goals | 10% |
| Juan Fernando Quintero: 2+ goals | 8% |
| Fabian Rieder: 1+ goals | 7% |
| Granit Xhaka: 1+ goals | 7% |
| Luis Suárez: 1+ assists | 7% |
| Jhon Córdoba: 2+ goals | 5% |
| Breel Embolo: 1+ assists | 5% |
| Daniel Muñoz: 1+ assists | 5% |
| Granit Xhaka: 1+ assists | 5% |
| Jefferson Lerma: 1+ assists | 5% |
| Daniel Muñoz: 1+ goals | 4% |
| Ruben Vargas: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Remo Freuler: 1+ assists | 4% |
| Breel Embolo: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Jefferson Lerma: 1+ goals | 3% |
| Jhon Córdoba: 1+ goals | 3% |
| James Rodríguez: 2+ assists | 3% |
| James Rodríguez: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Luis Díaz: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Luis Suárez: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Dan Ndoye: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Jhon Arias: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Johan Manzambi: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Johan Manzambi: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Michel Aebischer: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Michel Aebischer: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Johan Manzambi: 1+ shots | 0% |
| Johan Manzambi: 2+ shots | 0% |
| Johan Manzambi: 3+ shots | 0% |
| Johan Manzambi: 4+ shots | 0% |
| Johan Manzambi: 5+ shots | 0% |
| Johan Manzambi: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Johan Manzambi: 2+ assists | 0% |
Markt-Kontext
Prognose: Switzerland vs. Colombia - Player Props — aktuelle Marktwahrscheinlichkeit: 100%. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between Switzerland and Colombia, scheduled for July 7 at 4:00 PM ET.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Diese Seite ist als Vergleichs-Snapshot konzipiert: ein Live-Kurs (Polymarket), vier Referenz-Plattformen mit ihren Schlüssel-Eigenschaften, und ein durchgehender Pfad zur Ausführung — alle Trade-Buttons routen zu PolyGram, das den Polymarket-Orderbuch direkt spiegelt.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Bei Auflösung tritt der UMA-Oracle-Mechanismus in Aktion: ein Vorschlagender stellt das Ergebnis mit einem Bond ein, jeder Token-Halter kann es innerhalb von zwei Stunden disputieren. Ohne Dispute wird das Ergebnis akzeptiert und der Smart Contract zahlt sofort aus.
Auf Kalshi (CFTC-reguliert) erfolgt die Auflösung über die hauseigene Clearing-Engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settelt nach Match-Ende in der jeweiligen Konto-Währung. Manifold zahlt keine Cash-Beträge — nur die platforme-eigene "Mana"-Währung.
Häufige Fragen
- Sind Prediction-Märkte in Deutschland legal?
- Prediction-Märkte befinden sich in Deutschland in einem rechtlichen Graubereich. Polymarket selbst ist in Deutschland geo-blockiert. Handeln Sie nur mit Kapital, dessen Verlust Sie verkraften können, und prüfen Sie die rechtliche Lage für Ihre Jurisdiktion.
- Was ist der Unterschied zwischen YES- und NO-Anteilen?
- Ein YES-Anteil zahlt $1,00 bei Eintritt des Ereignisses, sonst $0. Ein NO-Anteil zahlt $1,00, wenn das Ereignis nicht eintritt. Der Marktpreis zwischen 0¢ und 100¢ ist die implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit.
- Welche Gebühren fallen bei Polymarket an?
- Direkt am Polymarket-Orderbuch keine Gebühren — die einzigen Kosten sind Polygon-Netzwerkgebühren (typischerweise unter $0,01 pro Transaktion). Off-chain Plattformen wie Kalshi oder Betfair verlangen 2-7 % Kommission.
- Brauche ich KYC für diesen Markt?
- Auf Polymarket direkt nicht. Über vermittelnde Broker wie PolyGram ist KYC erst ab $1.500 lebenslangem Trading-Volumen erforderlich — darunter handeln Sie pseudonym mit nur einer Wallet-Adresse.
- Wie verlässlich sind die angezeigten Quoten?
- Die YES/NO-Prozentsätze sind die Live-Mid-Preise des Polymarket-Orderbuchs. Auf Märkten mit hoher Liquidität bewegen sich diese Werte sekündlich; bei dünneren Märkten sehen Sie kurze Plateaus.
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Jetzt „Prognose: Switzerland vs. Colombia - Player Props" auf PolyGram handeln
Live-Orderbuch, 0 % Gebühren, USDC-Auszahlung in Sekunden.
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