Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über PolyGram) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| 1H O/U 21.5 | 100% |
| 1H O/U 24.5 | 100% |
| 1H O/U 27.5 | 100% |
| 1H O/U 30.5 | 100% |
| 1H O/U 33.5 | 100% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 100% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 100% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 100% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 100% |
| 2Q O/U 19.5 | 100% |
| Oregon State O/U 23.5 | 100% |
| Oregon State O/U 26.5 | 100% |
| Oregon State O/U 29.5 | 100% |
| Oregon State 1H O/U 12.5 | 100% |
| Oregon State 1H O/U 14.5 | 100% |
| Oregon State 1H O/U 16.5 | 100% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 100% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 100% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 100% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 100% |
| 1Q Spread -5.5 | 100% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 100% |
| O/U 35.5 | 99% |
| 2Q O/U 16.5 | 99% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 99% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 99% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 99% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 99% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 99% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 99% |
| Spread -1.5 | 98% |
| Spread -2.5 | 98% |
| Spread -3.5 | 98% |
| Spread -4.5 | 98% |
| Spread -5.5 | 98% |
| Spread -6.5 | 98% |
| Spread -7.5 | 98% |
| Spread -10.5 | 98% |
| O/U 41.5 | 98% |
| Spread -11.5 | 98% |
| O/U 37.5 | 97% |
| O/U 39.5 | 97% |
| Spread -9.5 | 97% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 97% |
| Spread -13.5 | 96% |
| Spread -14.5 | 95% |
| Spread -16.5 | 95% |
| Spread -17.5 | 94% |
| Spread -20.5 | 94% |
| O/U 43.5 | 93% |
| O/U 45.5 | 93% |
| Spread -21.5 | 93% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 93% |
| O/U 47.5 | 92% |
| Spread -24.5 | 91% |
| O/U 49.5 | 90% |
| O/U 51.5 | 87% |
| Spread -15.5 | 87% |
| Spread -27.5 | 86% |
| O/U 53.5 | 84% |
| Spread -30.5 | 80% |
| O/U 55.5 | 78% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 77% |
| Spread -28.5 | 76% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 72% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 71% |
| O/U 57.5 | 70% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 70% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 70% |
| Spread -31.5 | 65% |
| O/U 59.5 | 64% |
| Spread -34.5 | 62% |
| 3Q O/U 16.5 | 57% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 57% |
| 3Q O/U 19.5 | 55% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 54% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 54% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 54% |
| O/U 61.5 | 53% |
| Oregon State O/U 32.5 | 53% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 53% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 51% |
| San Diego State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 51% |
| San Diego State Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 51% |
| Oregon State Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 51% |
| San Diego State 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 51% |
| San Diego State Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 51% |
| San Diego State Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 51% |
| Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 33.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State O/U 32.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State 1H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State 1H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State 1H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State 2H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State 2H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Oregon State 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Oregon State 2H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Oregon State 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q2 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q3 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q4 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 1H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q1 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 2H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q2 | 50% |
| Kickoff or Punt Return Touchdown | 50% |
| Pick-Six Scored | 50% |
| Game Goes to Overtime | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q3 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q4 | 50% |
| San Diego State vs. Oregon State: Total Touchdowns O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State vs. Oregon State: Total Touchdowns O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Oregon State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Oregon State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Oregon State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| Oregon State Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| Oregon State Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| Oregon State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| Oregon State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| Oregon State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| Oregon State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Oregon State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| Oregon State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| Oregon State 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Oregon State 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Oregon State Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Oregon State Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Oregon State Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Oregon State Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Oregon State Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Oregon State Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Oregon State Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State vs. Oregon State: Total 4th Down Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Oregon State Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State vs. Oregon State: Total Defensive/Special Teams Touchdowns O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State vs. Oregon State: Total Successful Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Spread -12.5 | 50% |
| Spread -18.5 | 50% |
| Spread -19.5 | 50% |
| Spread -22.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -11.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -11.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| Oregon State O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| 1H Moneyline | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Oregon State O/U 35.5 | 49% |
| San Diego State vs. Oregon State: Total Touchdowns O/U 5.5 | 49% |
| San Diego State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 49% |
| San Diego State 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| Oregon State Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 49% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 48% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 48% |
| O/U 63.5 | 47% |
| 2H O/U 27.5 | 46% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 46% |
| O/U 65.5 | 44% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 42% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 41% |
| O/U 67.5 | 36% |
| O/U 69.5 | 34% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 34% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 34% |
| 2H O/U 30.5 | 33% |
| 4Q O/U 16.5 | 32% |
| O/U 71.5 | 25% |
| 4Q O/U 19.5 | 24% |
| O/U 73.5 | 22% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 22% |
| San Diego State O/U 20.5 | 21% |
| O/U 75.5 | 19% |
| San Diego State O/U 23.5 | 14% |
| San Diego State vs. Oregon State | 1% |
| Spread -6.5 | 1% |
| Spread -5.5 | 1% |
| Spread -4.5 | 1% |
| Spread -3.5 | 1% |
| Spread -2.5 | 1% |
| Spread -1.5 | 1% |
| Spread -10.5 | 0% |
| Spread -7.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 16.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 19.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q1 | 0% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 0% |
Markt-Kontext
Marktkonsens: 100% Chance für prognose: san diego state vs. oregon state. Prognosemärkte bündeln echtes Kapital zu diesem Wahrscheinlichkeitssignal. In the upcoming college football game between San Diego State and Oregon State, scheduled for October 10 at 6:00PM ET: This market will resolve to "San Diego State" if San Diego St…
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $483K.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Diese Übersicht vergleicht Prognose: San Diego State vs. Oregon State über fünf Plattformen. Die Live-Wahrscheinlichkeit ist der Polymarket-Mid-Preis aus dem Polygon-Orderbuch; die Vergleichs-Spalten zeigen Gebührenstruktur, KYC-Schwellen, Settlement-Währung und Zahlungswege jeder Plattform. Alle CTAs leiten zu PolyGram, das den Polymarket-Orderbuch zu 0 % Gebühren spiegelt.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Bei Auflösung tritt der UMA-Oracle-Mechanismus in Aktion: ein Vorschlagender stellt das Ergebnis mit einem Bond ein, jeder Token-Halter kann es innerhalb von zwei Stunden disputieren. Ohne Dispute wird das Ergebnis akzeptiert und der Smart Contract zahlt sofort aus.
Auf Kalshi (CFTC-reguliert) erfolgt die Auflösung über die hauseigene Clearing-Engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settelt nach Match-Ende in der jeweiligen Konto-Währung. Manifold zahlt keine Cash-Beträge — nur die platforme-eigene "Mana"-Währung.
Häufige Fragen
- Wo kann ich diesen Markt am günstigsten handeln?
- Polymarket selbst ist global zugänglich, in DE/AT/CH allerdings geo-blockiert. Der einfachste Broker mit gleichem Orderbuch und 0 % Gebühr ist PolyGram. Kalshi nimmt bis zu 7 % pro Trade, Betfair Exchange 2-5 % Kommission auf Gewinne.
- Sind Prediction-Märkte in Deutschland legal?
- Prediction-Märkte befinden sich in Deutschland in einem rechtlichen Graubereich. Polymarket selbst ist in Deutschland geo-blockiert. Handeln Sie nur mit Kapital, dessen Verlust Sie verkraften können, und prüfen Sie die rechtliche Lage für Ihre Jurisdiktion.
- Wie funktioniert die Auflösung?
- Über das UMA Optimistic Oracle: ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, USDC-Auszahlung erfolgt automatisch.
- Was ist der Unterschied zwischen YES- und NO-Anteilen?
- Ein YES-Anteil zahlt $1,00 bei Eintritt des Ereignisses, sonst $0. Ein NO-Anteil zahlt $1,00, wenn das Ereignis nicht eintritt. Der Marktpreis zwischen 0¢ und 100¢ ist die implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit.
- Wie lange dauert eine USDC-Einzahlung?
- Auf Polygon werden Einzahlungen nach 12 Bestätigungen gutgeschrieben — in der Regel unter 30 Sekunden. Withdrawals folgen demselben Pfad und sind binnen Minuten auf Ihrer Wallet.
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