Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über PolyGram) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
75% | 25% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
75% | 25% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| Spread -0.5 | 75% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 71% |
| Spread -0.5 | 65% |
| Spread -1.5 | 56% |
| Spread -2.5 | 53% |
| New Mexico Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 51% |
| Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| O/U 69.5 | 50% |
| O/U 71.5 | 50% |
| O/U 73.5 | 50% |
| O/U 75.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 33.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico O/U 32.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i O/U 32.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i O/U 35.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico 2H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico 2H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i 2H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 1H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q3 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q1 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q2 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 2H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q4 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q3 | 50% |
| Game Goes to Overtime | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q4 | 50% |
| Kickoff or Punt Return Touchdown | 50% |
| Pick-Six Scored | 50% |
| New Mexico vs. Hawai'i: Total Touchdowns O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico vs. Hawai'i: Total Touchdowns O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico vs. Hawai'i: Total Touchdowns O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico vs. Hawai'i: Total 4th Down Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico vs. Hawai'i: Total Successful Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico vs. Hawai'i: Total Defensive/Special Teams Touchdowns O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Spread -34.5 | 50% |
| Spread -31.5 | 50% |
| Spread -19.5 | 50% |
| Spread -18.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -11.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| New Mexico O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| O/U 35.5 | 46% |
| Spread -3.5 | 43% |
| New Mexico vs. Hawai'i | 41% |
| O/U 37.5 | 39% |
| Spread -1.5 | 38% |
| Spread -4.5 | 38% |
| Spread -5.5 | 38% |
| Spread -2.5 | 36% |
| Spread -6.5 | 34% |
| Spread -3.5 | 29% |
| Spread -7.5 | 27% |
| O/U 39.5 | 26% |
| O/U 61.5 | 26% |
| New Mexico O/U 20.5 | 26% |
| O/U 59.5 | 25% |
| Spread -8.5 | 22% |
| O/U 41.5 | 21% |
| Spread -4.5 | 20% |
| Hawai'i O/U 23.5 | 20% |
| Spread -5.5 | 19% |
| Spread -6.5 | 18% |
| Spread -10.5 | 17% |
| O/U 43.5 | 16% |
| New Mexico O/U 23.5 | 16% |
| Spread -7.5 | 13% |
| Spread -8.5 | 12% |
| New Mexico O/U 26.5 | 12% |
| New Mexico O/U 29.5 | 12% |
| Spread -14.5 | 11% |
| O/U 45.5 | 11% |
| Spread -13.5 | 10% |
| 1H O/U 33.5 | 10% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 10% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 10% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 10% |
| 2Q O/U 16.5 | 10% |
| 2Q O/U 19.5 | 10% |
| New Mexico 1H O/U 11.5 | 10% |
| New Mexico 1H O/U 13.5 | 10% |
| New Mexico 1H O/U 15.5 | 10% |
| Hawai'i 1H O/U 12.5 | 10% |
| Hawai'i 1H O/U 14.5 | 10% |
| Hawai'i 1H O/U 16.5 | 10% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q2 | 10% |
| Spread -9.5 | 10% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 10% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 10% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 10% |
| 2Q Spread -5.5 | 10% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 10% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 10% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 10% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 10% |
| Spread -10.5 | 9% |
| O/U 47.5 | 9% |
| 1H O/U 21.5 | 9% |
| 1H O/U 24.5 | 9% |
| 1H O/U 27.5 | 9% |
| 1H O/U 30.5 | 9% |
| 1H Spread -11.5 | 9% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 9% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 9% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 9% |
| 1H Moneyline | 9% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 9% |
| O/U 49.5 | 8% |
| Spread -11.5 | 7% |
| Spread -13.5 | 6% |
| O/U 51.5 | 6% |
| O/U 53.5 | 6% |
| O/U 55.5 | 6% |
| Spread -12.5 | 6% |
| Spread -14.5 | 5% |
| Spread -15.5 | 5% |
| Spread -17.5 | 4% |
| Spread -20.5 | 3% |
| Spread -16.5 | 3% |
| Spread -28.5 | 3% |
| Spread -22.5 | 3% |
| Spread -21.5 | 3% |
| O/U 57.5 | 2% |
| O/U 67.5 | 2% |
| Spread -24.5 | 2% |
| O/U 63.5 | 1% |
| O/U 65.5 | 1% |
| Spread -30.5 | 1% |
| Spread -27.5 | 1% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 16.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 19.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q1 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -5.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 0% |
Markt-Kontext
Prognose: New Mexico vs. Hawai'i — aktuelle Marktwahrscheinlichkeit: 75%. In the upcoming college football game between New Mexico and Hawai'i, scheduled for October 17 at 10:30PM ET: This market will resolve to "New Mexico" if New Mexico win the game. This market will reso…
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $218K.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Methodisch unterscheiden wir zwei Schichten: die Live-Wahrscheinlichkeit (Polymarket-Mid-Preis) und die Plattform-Attribute (Gebühren, KYC, Auszahlung, Settlement-Währung). Eine kanonische Wahrscheinlichkeit über die Zeile, die Anbieter-spezifischen Trade-offs in den Spalten — sauber, vergleichbar, ohne Marketing-Lärm.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Polymarket-basierte Märkte werden über das UMA Optimistic Oracle auf Polygon aufgelöst. Ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, und unangefochtene Vorschläge schließen die Auflösung ab. Auszahlungen erfolgen automatisch in USDC, sobald das Ergebnis final ist — keine Buchhalter, keine Verzögerung.
Kalshi-basierte Märkte werden in USD über die CFTC-regulierte Settlement-Engine ausgezahlt. Betfair Exchange zahlt in GBP/EUR aus, abzüglich Kommission. Manifold ist Spielgeld und zahlt keine echten Beträge aus.
Häufige Fragen
- Wo kann ich diesen Markt am günstigsten handeln?
- Polymarket selbst ist global zugänglich, in DE/AT/CH allerdings geo-blockiert. Der einfachste Broker mit gleichem Orderbuch und 0 % Gebühr ist PolyGram. Kalshi nimmt bis zu 7 % pro Trade, Betfair Exchange 2-5 % Kommission auf Gewinne.
- Wie funktioniert die Auflösung?
- Über das UMA Optimistic Oracle: ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, USDC-Auszahlung erfolgt automatisch.
- Was ist der Unterschied zwischen YES- und NO-Anteilen?
- Ein YES-Anteil zahlt $1,00 bei Eintritt des Ereignisses, sonst $0. Ein NO-Anteil zahlt $1,00, wenn das Ereignis nicht eintritt. Der Marktpreis zwischen 0¢ und 100¢ ist die implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit.
- Welche Gebühren fallen bei Polymarket an?
- Direkt am Polymarket-Orderbuch keine Gebühren — die einzigen Kosten sind Polygon-Netzwerkgebühren (typischerweise unter $0,01 pro Transaktion). Off-chain Plattformen wie Kalshi oder Betfair verlangen 2-7 % Kommission.
- Wie lange dauert eine USDC-Einzahlung?
- Auf Polygon werden Einzahlungen nach 12 Bestätigungen gutgeschrieben — in der Regel unter 30 Sekunden. Withdrawals folgen demselben Pfad und sind binnen Minuten auf Ihrer Wallet.
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Jetzt „Prognose: New Mexico vs. Hawai'i" auf PolyGram handeln
Live-Orderbuch, 0 % Gebühren, USDC-Auszahlung in Sekunden.
Live-Markt öffnen →