Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über PolyGram) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| Louisville vs. Syracuse | 100% |
| Spread -7.5 | 100% |
| Spread -6.5 | 100% |
| Spread -5.5 | 100% |
| Spread -4.5 | 100% |
| Spread -3.5 | 100% |
| Spread -2.5 | 100% |
| Spread -1.5 | 100% |
| Spread -0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 35.5 | 100% |
| O/U 37.5 | 100% |
| O/U 39.5 | 100% |
| O/U 41.5 | 100% |
| O/U 43.5 | 100% |
| O/U 45.5 | 100% |
| O/U 47.5 | 100% |
| O/U 49.5 | 100% |
| O/U 51.5 | 100% |
| O/U 53.5 | 100% |
| O/U 55.5 | 100% |
| O/U 57.5 | 100% |
| O/U 59.5 | 100% |
| 1H O/U 21.5 | 100% |
| 1H O/U 24.5 | 100% |
| 1H O/U 27.5 | 100% |
| 1H O/U 30.5 | 100% |
| 1H O/U 33.5 | 100% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 100% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 100% |
| 1Q O/U 16.5 | 100% |
| 1Q O/U 19.5 | 100% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 100% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 100% |
| 2Q O/U 16.5 | 100% |
| 2Q O/U 19.5 | 100% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 100% |
| Louisville O/U 20.5 | 100% |
| Louisville O/U 23.5 | 100% |
| Louisville O/U 26.5 | 100% |
| Louisville O/U 29.5 | 100% |
| Louisville O/U 32.5 | 100% |
| Syracuse O/U 23.5 | 100% |
| Louisville 1H O/U 11.5 | 100% |
| Louisville 1H O/U 13.5 | 100% |
| Louisville 1H O/U 15.5 | 100% |
| Syracuse 1H O/U 12.5 | 100% |
| Syracuse 1H O/U 14.5 | 100% |
| Syracuse 1H O/U 16.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q1 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q2 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 1H | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q1 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q2 | 100% |
| Louisville vs. Syracuse: Total Touchdowns O/U 5.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q4 | 100% |
| Louisville vs. Syracuse: Total Touchdowns O/U 6.5 | 100% |
| Louisville vs. Syracuse: Total Touchdowns O/U 7.5 | 100% |
| Louisville Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Syracuse Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Syracuse Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Louisville Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 100% |
| Louisville Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 100% |
| Louisville Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 100% |
| Syracuse Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 100% |
| Syracuse Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 100% |
| Syracuse Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 100% |
| Louisville Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 100% |
| Louisville Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 100% |
| Louisville Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 100% |
| Syracuse Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 100% |
| Syracuse Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 100% |
| Syracuse Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 100% |
| Syracuse Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Syracuse Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Syracuse Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 100% |
| Syracuse Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 100% |
| Syracuse Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 100% |
| Syracuse Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 100% |
| Syracuse Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 100% |
| Syracuse Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 100% |
| Louisville vs. Syracuse: Total 4th Down Conversions O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 100% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 100% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 100% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 100% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 100% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 100% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 100% |
| 2H Moneyline | 100% |
| Louisville O/U 4.5 | 100% |
| 1H Moneyline | 100% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 100% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 100% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 100% |
| Syracuse O/U 2.5 | 90% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Spread -20.5 | 0% |
| Spread -17.5 | 0% |
| Spread -16.5 | 0% |
| Spread -14.5 | 0% |
| Spread -13.5 | 0% |
| Spread -10.5 | 0% |
| Spread -8.5 | 0% |
| Spread -0.5 | 0% |
| Spread -1.5 | 0% |
| Spread -2.5 | 0% |
| Spread -3.5 | 0% |
| Spread -4.5 | 0% |
| Spread -5.5 | 0% |
| Spread -6.5 | 0% |
| Spread -7.5 | 0% |
| Spread -8.5 | 0% |
| Spread -10.5 | 0% |
| Spread -13.5 | 0% |
| Spread -14.5 | 0% |
| Spread -16.5 | 0% |
| Spread -17.5 | 0% |
| Spread -20.5 | 0% |
| O/U 61.5 | 0% |
| O/U 63.5 | 0% |
| O/U 65.5 | 0% |
| O/U 67.5 | 0% |
| O/U 69.5 | 0% |
| O/U 71.5 | 0% |
| O/U 73.5 | 0% |
| O/U 75.5 | 0% |
| 2H O/U 21.5 | 0% |
| 2H O/U 24.5 | 0% |
| 2H O/U 27.5 | 0% |
| 2H O/U 30.5 | 0% |
| 2H O/U 33.5 | 0% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 0% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 0% |
| 3Q O/U 16.5 | 0% |
| 3Q O/U 19.5 | 0% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 0% |
| 4Q O/U 16.5 | 0% |
| 4Q O/U 19.5 | 0% |
| Syracuse O/U 26.5 | 0% |
| Syracuse O/U 29.5 | 0% |
| Syracuse O/U 32.5 | 0% |
| Syracuse O/U 35.5 | 0% |
| Louisville 2H O/U 11.5 | 0% |
| Louisville 2H O/U 13.5 | 0% |
| Louisville 2H O/U 15.5 | 0% |
| Syracuse 2H O/U 12.5 | 0% |
| Syracuse 2H O/U 14.5 | 0% |
| Syracuse 2H O/U 16.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q4 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q3 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 2H | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q3 | 0% |
| Game Goes to Overtime | 0% |
| Kickoff or Punt Return Touchdown | 0% |
| Pick-Six Scored | 0% |
| Louisville Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Syracuse Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Louisville Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Louisville Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 0% |
| Louisville Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 0% |
| Syracuse Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 0% |
| Louisville Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 0% |
| Syracuse Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 0% |
| Syracuse Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 0% |
| Louisville 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Louisville 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Syracuse 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Louisville Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Syracuse 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Louisville Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Louisville Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Syracuse Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Louisville Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 0% |
| Louisville Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 0% |
| Louisville Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 0% |
| Louisville Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 0% |
| Louisville Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 0% |
| Louisville Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 0% |
| Louisville vs. Syracuse: Total Successful Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Louisville vs. Syracuse: Total Defensive/Special Teams Touchdowns O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Spread -36.5 | 0% |
| Spread -33.5 | 0% |
| Spread -32.5 | 0% |
| Spread -30.5 | 0% |
| Spread -29.5 | 0% |
| Spread -26.5 | 0% |
| Spread -24.5 | 0% |
| Spread -23.5 | 0% |
| Spread -22.5 | 0% |
| Spread -21.5 | 0% |
| Spread -19.5 | 0% |
| Spread -18.5 | 0% |
| Spread -15.5 | 0% |
| Spread -12.5 | 0% |
| Spread -11.5 | 0% |
| Spread -9.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -11.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 0% |
| 2H Spread -11.5 | 0% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 0% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 0% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 0% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 0% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -5.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -5.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 0% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 0% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 0% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 0% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 0% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 0% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 0% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 0% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 0% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 0% |
Markt-Kontext
Basierend auf echtem Kapital beträgt die aktuelle Marktwahrscheinlichkeit für prognose: louisville vs. syracuse 100%. In the upcoming college football game between Louisville and Syracuse, scheduled for October 17 at 7:30PM ET: This market will resolve to "Louisville" if Louisville win the game. T…
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $121K.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Methodisch unterscheiden wir zwei Schichten: die Live-Wahrscheinlichkeit (Polymarket-Mid-Preis) und die Plattform-Attribute (Gebühren, KYC, Auszahlung, Settlement-Währung). Eine kanonische Wahrscheinlichkeit über die Zeile, die Anbieter-spezifischen Trade-offs in den Spalten — sauber, vergleichbar, ohne Marketing-Lärm.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Die Auflösung läuft on-chain. Polymarkets Vertragslogik trennt YES- und NO-Anteile als Conditional Tokens; bei Auflösung werden die richtigen Anteile zu 100¢ und die anderen zu 0¢. Die Outcome-Eingabe kommt vom UMA Optimistic Oracle, das mit einem Bond-System gegen falsche Auflösung absichert.
Sobald die Auflösung durch ist, hebt der Smart Contract alle gewinnenden Anteile zu USDC und schickt die Beträge an die Wallets der Inhaber. Das geschieht binnen Minuten der finalen Bestätigung — ohne Auszahlungsgebühren über die Polygon-Netzwerkkosten hinaus.
Häufige Fragen
- Wo kann ich diesen Markt am günstigsten handeln?
- Polymarket selbst ist global zugänglich, in DE/AT/CH allerdings geo-blockiert. Der einfachste Broker mit gleichem Orderbuch und 0 % Gebühr ist PolyGram. Kalshi nimmt bis zu 7 % pro Trade, Betfair Exchange 2-5 % Kommission auf Gewinne.
- Sind Prediction-Märkte in Deutschland legal?
- Prediction-Märkte befinden sich in Deutschland in einem rechtlichen Graubereich. Polymarket selbst ist in Deutschland geo-blockiert. Handeln Sie nur mit Kapital, dessen Verlust Sie verkraften können, und prüfen Sie die rechtliche Lage für Ihre Jurisdiktion.
- Welche Gebühren fallen bei Polymarket an?
- Direkt am Polymarket-Orderbuch keine Gebühren — die einzigen Kosten sind Polygon-Netzwerkgebühren (typischerweise unter $0,01 pro Transaktion). Off-chain Plattformen wie Kalshi oder Betfair verlangen 2-7 % Kommission.
- Wie lange dauert eine USDC-Einzahlung?
- Auf Polygon werden Einzahlungen nach 12 Bestätigungen gutgeschrieben — in der Regel unter 30 Sekunden. Withdrawals folgen demselben Pfad und sind binnen Minuten auf Ihrer Wallet.
- Brauche ich KYC für diesen Markt?
- Auf Polymarket direkt nicht. Über vermittelnde Broker wie PolyGram ist KYC erst ab $1.500 lebenslangem Trading-Volumen erforderlich — darunter handeln Sie pseudonym mit nur einer Wallet-Adresse.
Jetzt „Prognose: Louisville vs. Syracuse" auf PolyGram handeln
Live-Orderbuch, 0 % Gebühren, USDC-Auszahlung in Sekunden.
Live-Markt öffnen →