Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über PolyGram) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| Fresno State vs. Washington State | 100% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 100% |
| Fresno State O/U 23.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q2 | 100% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 100% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 100% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 100% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 100% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 100% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 100% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 100% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 100% |
| Spread -10.5 | 99% |
| Spread -7.5 | 99% |
| Spread -6.5 | 99% |
| Spread -4.5 | 99% |
| Spread -2.5 | 99% |
| Spread -1.5 | 99% |
| Spread -5.5 | 98% |
| Spread -3.5 | 98% |
| Spread -13.5 | 91% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 91% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 91% |
| Fresno State O/U 20.5 | 91% |
| Fresno State 2H O/U 11.5 | 91% |
| Fresno State 2H O/U 13.5 | 91% |
| Fresno State 2H O/U 15.5 | 91% |
| Spread -14.5 | 87% |
| Spread -16.5 | 79% |
| Spread -17.5 | 78% |
| Washington State 2H O/U 16.5 | 51% |
| Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| O/U 35.5 | 50% |
| O/U 39.5 | 50% |
| O/U 41.5 | 50% |
| O/U 51.5 | 50% |
| O/U 53.5 | 50% |
| O/U 57.5 | 50% |
| O/U 59.5 | 50% |
| O/U 63.5 | 50% |
| O/U 65.5 | 50% |
| O/U 69.5 | 50% |
| O/U 71.5 | 50% |
| O/U 73.5 | 50% |
| O/U 75.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 33.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Fresno State O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| Fresno State O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Fresno State O/U 32.5 | 50% |
| Washington State O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Washington State O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| Washington State O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Washington State O/U 32.5 | 50% |
| Washington State O/U 35.5 | 50% |
| Washington State 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Washington State 2H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 2H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q2 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 1H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q4 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q1 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q3 | 50% |
| Game Goes to Overtime | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q4 | 50% |
| Kickoff or Punt Return Touchdown | 50% |
| Fresno State vs. Washington State: Total Touchdowns O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Pick-Six Scored | 50% |
| Fresno State vs. Washington State: Total Touchdowns O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Fresno State vs. Washington State: Total Touchdowns O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Fresno State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Fresno State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Fresno State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Washington State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Washington State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Washington State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Fresno State Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| Fresno State Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| Fresno State Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| Washington State Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| Washington State Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| Fresno State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| Fresno State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| Fresno State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| Washington State Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| Washington State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| Washington State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| Washington State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| Fresno State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Fresno State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| Washington State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Fresno State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| Washington State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| Washington State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| Fresno State 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Fresno State 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Washington State 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Washington State 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Fresno State Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Fresno State Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Fresno State Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Washington State Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Washington State Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Washington State Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Fresno State Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Fresno State Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Fresno State Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Washington State Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Washington State Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Fresno State Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Washington State Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Fresno State Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Fresno State Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Washington State Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Washington State Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Washington State Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Fresno State vs. Washington State: Total 4th Down Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Fresno State vs. Washington State: Total Successful Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Fresno State vs. Washington State: Total Defensive/Special Teams Touchdowns O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| Washington State O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Fresno State O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| 1H Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Spread -20.5 | 49% |
| Spread -16.5 | 43% |
| Spread -14.5 | 25% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 24% |
| O/U 37.5 | 9% |
| O/U 61.5 | 6% |
| Spread -13.5 | 5% |
| O/U 49.5 | 3% |
| O/U 55.5 | 3% |
| Spread -2.5 | 2% |
| Spread -5.5 | 2% |
| Spread -6.5 | 2% |
| Spread -20.5 | 2% |
| O/U 43.5 | 2% |
| O/U 47.5 | 2% |
| Spread -1.5 | 1% |
| Spread -3.5 | 1% |
| Spread -4.5 | 1% |
| Spread -7.5 | 1% |
| Spread -10.5 | 1% |
| Spread -17.5 | 1% |
| O/U 45.5 | 1% |
| O/U 67.5 | 1% |
| 1H O/U 21.5 | 0% |
| 1H O/U 24.5 | 0% |
| 1H O/U 27.5 | 0% |
| 1H O/U 30.5 | 0% |
| 1H O/U 33.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 16.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 19.5 | 0% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 0% |
| 2Q O/U 16.5 | 0% |
| 2Q O/U 19.5 | 0% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 0% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 0% |
| 3Q O/U 16.5 | 0% |
| 3Q O/U 19.5 | 0% |
| Fresno State 1H O/U 11.5 | 0% |
| Fresno State 1H O/U 13.5 | 0% |
| Fresno State 1H O/U 15.5 | 0% |
| Washington State 1H O/U 12.5 | 0% |
| Washington State 1H O/U 14.5 | 0% |
| Washington State 1H O/U 16.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q1 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q3 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -5.5 | 0% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 0% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 0% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 0% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 0% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 0% |
Markt-Kontext
Basierend auf echtem Kapital beträgt die aktuelle Marktwahrscheinlichkeit für prognose: fresno state vs. washington state 100%. In the upcoming college football game between Fresno State and Washington State, scheduled for October 3 at 9:30PM ET: This market will resolve to "Fresno State" if Fresno State wi…
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $688K.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Wir tracken Prognose: Fresno State vs. Washington State auf den fünf Plattformen mit substanzieller Prediction-Market-Liquidität. Die angezeigte Wahrscheinlichkeit ist der Polymarket-Live-Mid; die Vergleichszeilen zeigen, wie jede Plattform den zugrundeliegenden Vertrag handhabt — Gebühren, KYC, Settlement, Einzahlungsmethoden. Die hervorgehobene Zeile markiert die günstigste Route in Polymarkets Orderbuch.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Die Auflösung läuft on-chain. Polymarkets Vertragslogik trennt YES- und NO-Anteile als Conditional Tokens; bei Auflösung werden die richtigen Anteile zu 100¢ und die anderen zu 0¢. Die Outcome-Eingabe kommt vom UMA Optimistic Oracle, das mit einem Bond-System gegen falsche Auflösung absichert.
Sobald die Auflösung durch ist, hebt der Smart Contract alle gewinnenden Anteile zu USDC und schickt die Beträge an die Wallets der Inhaber. Das geschieht binnen Minuten der finalen Bestätigung — ohne Auszahlungsgebühren über die Polygon-Netzwerkkosten hinaus.
Häufige Fragen
- Sind Prediction-Märkte in Deutschland legal?
- Prediction-Märkte befinden sich in Deutschland in einem rechtlichen Graubereich. Polymarket selbst ist in Deutschland geo-blockiert. Handeln Sie nur mit Kapital, dessen Verlust Sie verkraften können, und prüfen Sie die rechtliche Lage für Ihre Jurisdiktion.
- Was ist der Unterschied zwischen YES- und NO-Anteilen?
- Ein YES-Anteil zahlt $1,00 bei Eintritt des Ereignisses, sonst $0. Ein NO-Anteil zahlt $1,00, wenn das Ereignis nicht eintritt. Der Marktpreis zwischen 0¢ und 100¢ ist die implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit.
- Welche Gebühren fallen bei Polymarket an?
- Direkt am Polymarket-Orderbuch keine Gebühren — die einzigen Kosten sind Polygon-Netzwerkgebühren (typischerweise unter $0,01 pro Transaktion). Off-chain Plattformen wie Kalshi oder Betfair verlangen 2-7 % Kommission.
- Wie lange dauert eine USDC-Einzahlung?
- Auf Polygon werden Einzahlungen nach 12 Bestätigungen gutgeschrieben — in der Regel unter 30 Sekunden. Withdrawals folgen demselben Pfad und sind binnen Minuten auf Ihrer Wallet.
- Wie verlässlich sind die angezeigten Quoten?
- Die YES/NO-Prozentsätze sind die Live-Mid-Preise des Polymarket-Orderbuchs. Auf Märkten mit hoher Liquidität bewegen sich diese Werte sekündlich; bei dünneren Märkten sehen Sie kurze Plateaus.
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